M.H. Karim; A. Dadras Moghadam; S.M. Hosseini; S.M. Seyedan
Abstract
Introduction and Aim: Agriculture is a risky occupation. The different natural, social, and economic hazards have created handicaps and problems for agricultural producers, which result in the instability of income for producers. In general, the nature and environment of agricultural activities are at ...
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Introduction and Aim: Agriculture is a risky occupation. The different natural, social, and economic hazards have created handicaps and problems for agricultural producers, which result in the instability of income for producers. In general, the nature and environment of agricultural activities are at high risk. The risks of agricultural activities are often associated with low performance, increased cost, and time lag. In order to from the perspective of risk management, studies can be categorized into three types including product hazards, price risks, and natural hazards. Major economies in the rural areas of south Khorasan province is based on the planting and selling three products of barberry, saffron and jujube, which are resistant to water deficit and drought, and at the same time all have the high economic value. This province in Iran accounts for about 96 to 98% of the barberry and jujube production. Therefore, this study aims to examine the factors affecting the barberry and jujube production in the South Khorasan province, Iran. .Materials and Methods: Genetic function approximation (GFA) algorithm describes the basic problem of approximating the function. Many factors affect the response variable and primary input correlated with best response. The GFA algorithm works with a range of strings called population, developed for the purpose of searching. The selection, crossover, and mutation operators also run appropriately. New members were given scores according to the estimator’s criteria. In the GFA, the criteria scoring is obtained for fitted regression models. The selection probabilities should add each new member to the population again. This method continued for a specified number of generations until the point of convergence. GFA algorithm can be used to produce a generation with respect to the evolution charts according to the achieved time. This graph shows the number of events for each variable about the population, which has evolved for each generation. GFA algorithm converges as no progress in population occurred. At this time, the model is significant which means the best choice for all models of population. Using GFA and MS modeling software, modeling is used to identify the factors affecting the knowledge of barberry and jujube producers in order to determine which one of 15 independent variables were effective on the risk management information of barberry and juvenile producers in South Khorasan province.Results and Discussion: The results showed that frostbite risk had the lowest risk, affecting the risk index of barberry producers. Awareness of hail hazards exerted the greatest effect on the risk index of jujube producers in south Khorasan region. The least effective factor was the awareness of fire hazards in the jujube gardens.Conclusion: The results suggest that most jujube and barberry producers use traditional knowledge and experience and do not acquire the necessary training that are needed for dealing with natural hazards due to poor knowledge and non-compliance with the principles of agricultural education in dealing with hazards. Therefore, it is recommended that the system of agricultural extension and education and agricultural meteorology must have been improved the knowledge of the farmers' risk management and skills in the southern Khorasan region by presenting appropriate training programs to address these risks (drought, , storm, sudden precipitation, etc.). Accordingly, the information and promotion system, accompanied with appropriate training in relation to new innovations, will increase the awareness among the male and female producers and government support should be taken in this area. So producers can use modern methods for better managing natural hazards in the Jujube and Barberry gardens of South Khorasan province.
A. Dadras Moghadam; M. Ghorbani; A. Karbasi; M.R. Kohansal
Abstract
Introduction: Product line design is a critical task that may determine a firm's survival. Producers need to constantly evolve in response to market and technology changes. As a result, the determining optimal diversity has attracted considerable attention in the marketing literature. So, all optimization ...
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Introduction: Product line design is a critical task that may determine a firm's survival. Producers need to constantly evolve in response to market and technology changes. As a result, the determining optimal diversity has attracted considerable attention in the marketing literature. So, all optimization approaches that have been applied to the optimal product line design problem aim at finding a better approximation of the global optimal solution that this paper solved the optimal diversity problem for brands with the use of a new population-based optimization algorithm called Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). PSO is a nature-inspired intelligence technique, which has displayed high performance in providing a wide variety of good near-optimal solutions in optimization problems of high complexity.
Materials and Methods: In this article, diversity and prices of selected brands on the market Mashhad cheese product using Noshad project data and Pegah Milk Industry (including 435 Grocery Store) using seemingly unrelated regression model and particle swarm optimization algorithm were reviewed and analyzed and optimized in 2014. The objective function is the sum of market shares (Kalleh, Pegah and Sabah). Constrain is share total of available brands in the market which is equal to one. The parameters used in this study, with population size 50 and individual and social learning rate is 2
Results and Discussion: Results showed that the effect the price on share of Kalleh is positive. In addition, Kalleh brand diversity have been a significant positive impact on share brand of Kalleh but with the Pegah and Sabah brand diversity have been negative relationship (statistically meaningless). The impact Pegah price is negative on the share of Pegah brand so Pegah price has a positive relationship with the price of Kalleh. With rising price of Sabah increase Pegah brand share. And diversity of Kalleh is negative and significant. Diversity of sabah brand is negative and non-significant. The effect of price on share of Pegah brand is negative and non-significant. The coefficient of Sabah brand diversity have been positive and significant relationship with Sabah brand share in the market but Kalleh brand diversity on customers buying of Sabah has a significant and positive impact. The optimum level of diversification cheese brands of Kalleh, Pegah and Sabah respectively, 8, 5 and 3 obtained which it shows that the optimum level of Kalleh cheese brand diversity in the market is more than the other rival brands. The average price of cheese brand product diversity of Kalleh, Pegah and Sabah are 45696, 34626 and 30678 (rials) respectively and it suggests that the Kalleh brand price should be higher than the other competitors. After that, brand price have been Pegah and Sabah. Kalleh brand has maximum diversity, the optimum value diversity in this study still is 8 .Also, Pegah are optimized for these state and the optimum value is obtained 5 for Pegah in the market. In other words, the number required Kalleh and Pegah cheese brand is optimized in the market. The maximum of Sabah diversity is 4 which the optimal level of Sabah diversity should be reduced to 3. In the summery, results showed that the optimum level particle swarm optimization algorithm of cheese product diversity of Kalleh brand in the market is more than other rival brands. As well as, 1 type of cheese products Sabah brand should be removed in the market and Kalleh and Pegah brands are in optimal state from the terms of cheese product diversity.
Conclusion: According to the findings is suggested, Kalleh brand price is more than other competitors brands. The results also showed that grocery stores should have been more than Pegah and kalleh brand diversity to increase profits. Kalleh brand diversity lead to more profitability than other types of brands in the optimized state. One of the main reasons that the Kalleh brand has a special share in this market is its diversity. Optimum profit from their grocery stores showed that the optimal value of kalleh and Pegah diversity is caused to increase profitability in grocery stores. Kalleh cheese price is also more than other competitors because of the quality and products diversity could have been. Brands must be paid attention to the issue of diversity products of Cheese to increase their shares. Cheese product of brands must be investigated to packaging and processing, and other diversity of brands features to increase share and profit in the market.
M.R. Lotfalipour; Y. Azarinfar; A. Dadras Moghadam
Abstract
AbstractThis study deals with the trade liberalization and it's subsequences on the agricultural sector of Iran during the years of 1967-2007. To this end on the basis of theories, the exports, imports, supply and demand functions of agricultural sector have been determined, and are regressed by the ...
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AbstractThis study deals with the trade liberalization and it's subsequences on the agricultural sector of Iran during the years of 1967-2007. To this end on the basis of theories, the exports, imports, supply and demand functions of agricultural sector have been determined, and are regressed by the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) methodology. Also to recognize the effects of different variables on the above mentioned functions, the methodology of variance detection is used. The results show that the trade liberalization have only an insignificant effect on the demand of agricultural products, but it has a meaningful impacts on the agricultural supply. While the liberalization variables does not have a meaningful impacts on the. imports of agricultural products, the exports of agricultural products are followed by the liberalization indices. This is due to the huge role of the government on the import of the agricultural products. JEL: F 14, F 17, Q 17
