Agricultural Economics
N. Asiabani; A. Kazempour Kahriz; M. Hassani Moghaddam; A. Dourandish; A. Ghasemi
Abstract
Introduction
Rice is one of the oldest and most important cultivated crops and consumed food items in the world, and half of the world's population depends on rice as a staple food. This product is of great importance in the food basket of Iranian households, and as a basic and strategic commodity, ...
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Introduction
Rice is one of the oldest and most important cultivated crops and consumed food items in the world, and half of the world's population depends on rice as a staple food. This product is of great importance in the food basket of Iranian households, and as a basic and strategic commodity, its supply through domestic production and imports plays an important role in ensuring the country's food security. Over the past two decades, the Iranian rice market has undergone notable transformations. The increase in rice imports, coupled with a decline in domestic production, has gradually diminished the share of Iranian rice in household consumption baskets. Imported rice, particularly from neighboring countries like India and Pakistan, has gained popularity due to its competitive pricing, adequate quality, and effective marketing strategies, replacing domestic rice in many cases. These trends have raised significant concerns about whether such changes signal a fundamental shift in consumer preferences or merely reflect temporary market dynamics influenced by external factors. The objective of this study is to critically analyze the stability of consumer preferences for rice in Iran using advanced non-parametric methodologies, specifically the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preferences (WARP) and the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preferences (GARP). By doing so, the study seeks to distinguish between structural changes in consumer loyalty and transient factors shaping consumption patterns.
Materials and Methods
This research investigates consumption preferences for domestic and imported rice over a twenty-year period, from 2003 to 2022. The analytical framework includes constructing normalized WARP matrices to evaluate the adherence to revealed preference principles, coupled with statistical tests like the Kruskal-Wallis test to assess the stability and coherence of consumer choices over time. Price and per capita consumption data for domestic and imported rice were meticulously sourced from national databases, normalized using grain-specific consumer price indices to account for inflationary effects, and analyzed computationally using MATLAB software. This methodology allows for a comprehensive exploration of preference dynamics while ensuring the robustness of statistical evaluations. In addition to quantitative analyses, the study considers qualitative aspects of consumer preferences, including cultural and economic factors that may influence purchasing decisions.
Results and Discussion
The results indicate a strong resilience in consumer loyalty towards domestic rice, despite temporary increases in the market share of imported alternatives. Four instances of violations in consumer preferences were observed during the study period; however, these violations were determined to be transient and attributable to non-systematic shocks, such as seasonal consumption trends, temporary price fluctuations, or short-term economic pressures. The Kruskal-Wallis test confirmed the stability of consumer preferences by indicating no statistically significant structural breaks. Similarly, GARP analysis validated the rationality and consistency of consumer behavior, as all violations remained within the acceptable margins of measurement error, suggesting no deviation from stable preference patterns. These findings align with previous studies examining consumer preferences, reinforcing the notion that Iranian consumers exhibit steadfast loyalty to locally produced rice. Moreover, the study highlights the temporary nature of market pressures favoring imported rice, emphasizing the opportunity to reestablish the competitive edge of domestic rice through targeted interventions.
Conclusion
The findings of this study highlight the persistent preference of Iranian consumers for domestic rice over the past two decades, despite competitive pressures from imported rice in terms of price and quality. To promote the sustainable growth and competitiveness of the domestic rice industry, this study proposes several strategic recommendations:
