Agricultural Economics
M. Mahmoudi; H. Mohammadi; A. Karbasi
Abstract
IntroductionAccording to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population ...
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IntroductionAccording to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste.Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production consumed by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future. It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It is important to note that the amount of waste generated by consumers varies between 1 kg per household per week and 4.5 kg per person per week, depending on consumer behavior. Given the significance of agricultural inputs, particularly water, in the production of these agricultural products and their substantial share in household consumption, this research focuses on the fruit and vegetable subgroups. Materials and MethodsThe case study of this research acknowledges that, in addition to consumers in Mashhad, there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops, as well as the city's main market squares, each contributing to varying percentages of agricultural product waste. These differences can fluctuate based on urban areas, necessitating a model that accounts for the heterogeneity within the studied population. Therefore, the multilevel Bayesian model was selected as the most appropriate tool, as discussed in the following section on the modeling methodology. Results and DiscussionBased on the results in Table (7), the gender variable, with a mean value of 0.8285 for its parameter distribution, falls within the estimated confidence interval. It is identified as one of the factors influencing the reduction of waste in fruit and vegetable products. Specifically, being a woman and having women manage household affairs (compared to men) leads to a reduction in waste. Regarding the education level of consumers, waste from fruit and vegetable products is significant only in the group with a diploma to bachelor's degree (compared to the group with education levels below a diploma). The negative sign of the average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) indicates that this group produces more waste than those with lower education levels. The variable of household size also affects the amount of waste from fruit and vegetable products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.3151. An increase in household size is associated with a reduction in waste. Additionally, the number of people working in the family (mean parameter distribution = 0.3733) also reduces waste, likely because a higher number of working family members can lead to increased income, allowing for the purchase of higher-quality products. The relative price parameter of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1475, reduces the waste generated by consumers. As the relative price of agricultural products (e.g., fruits and vegetables) increases—when consumers compare the value of these products to other goods—they realize that consuming these products will result in less waste. Similarly, the parameter related to the distribution location of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1744, also reduces the waste generated by consumers. This suggests that the more efficiently agricultural products are distributed, the less waste is produced. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in number of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste. ConclusionThe research demonstrates that individual and marketing mix factors can effectively reduce waste. Beyond the importance of each link in the food supply chain, consumer-level interventions using the marketing mix (price, product, promotion, and location) can contribute to reducing agricultural product waste. Therefore, studying consumer behavior, considering individual and social characteristics and the influence of the marketing mix, represents a potentially low-cost solution for minimizing agricultural product waste.
