Agricultural Economics
H. Naruei; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani; M. Salarpour; A. Keikha; R. Esfanjari Kenari
Abstract
The negative and destructive impact of climate change on the efficiency and productivity of agricultural inputs has been demonstrated in many regions of the world, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. In this context, the adoption of innovative strategies to increase farmers' flexibility and adaptability ...
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The negative and destructive impact of climate change on the efficiency and productivity of agricultural inputs has been demonstrated in many regions of the world, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. In this context, the adoption of innovative strategies to increase farmers' flexibility and adaptability to climate change has increased. Hence, understanding the impact of climate adaptation strategies on agricultural efficiency and yields is crucial. This study examined the effects of climate change adaptation strategies, input utilization, and external factors beyond farmers' control on technical efficiency using the Endogenous Modified Stochastic Frontier (EMSF) model. Data were collected from 265 questionnaires distributed among wheat farmers during the 2022-2023 cultivation period, using a stratified random sampling approach. The climate adaptation strategy index was formulated using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. The PCA revealed that changes in farm size (0.812), adaptation of conservation tillage (0.797), and adjustments in planting dates (0.619) were the most influential factors. Conversely, rainwater harvesting (0.219) and biofertilizer application (0.327) emerged as the adaptation strategies with the lowest factor loadings among farmers. In this study, the average technical efficiency of wheat farmers was calculated to be 82%. The model estimation results showed that labor input, chemical pesticides, chemical fertilizers, water, and machinery significantly and positively contribute to wheat production efficiency. Additionally, the implementation of climate adaptation strategies by farmers reduces technical inefficiency. Variables such as education level, farming experience, access to climate information, and access to credit also effectively reduce technical inefficiency.
F. Salehi Rezaabadi; M. Salarpour; M. Mardani Najafabadi; S. Ziaee
Abstract
Introduction: Excessive extraction and depletion of groundwater aquifers and critical water status in more than 120 plains of the country have resulted in decreased water quality. In addition, the productivity of agricultural water of Iran in different years is on average lower than other countries. ...
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Introduction: Excessive extraction and depletion of groundwater aquifers and critical water status in more than 120 plains of the country have resulted in decreased water quality. In addition, the productivity of agricultural water of Iran in different years is on average lower than other countries. The results of most salinity studies show that high concentrations of salt in soil solution have significantly reduced the yield of crops and horticultural products in the country. More profitability and high market value of pistachio crops in comparison with other crops has led to many efforts by Kerman farmers to develop pistachio groves. Various studies show that over- extraction of groundwater resources in Kerman province and decreasing water quality of wells and consequently increasing salinity has reduced root growth and crop yield. In the present study, economic analysis of the effects of quantitative and qualitative changes of water in different scenarios on concepts such as yield, cropping pattern, water consumption and productivity and gross profit of farmers in major county of Kerman province has been investigated.Materials and Methods: To achieve the goals of present study, we first obtained the salinity-water-yield function for each product. Then, by regarding this function in the positive mathematical programming model, the effect of different scenarios including changing water salinity level and changing water supply, on factors such as water productivity, crop yield, cropping pattern and gross profit of farmers especially pistachio growers are analyzed and investigated. In this regard, scenarios of 15% reduction of available water resources in different regions and increase of one salinity unit individually in combination with the above mentioned indicators are evaluated by conducting positive mathematical programming model and are identified by studied areas.Results and Discussion: Investigation of the data reveals that discharge of aquifers is higher for recharge in all studied areas and consequently reduction of groundwater level has occurred. The result shows that the yield sensitivity of pistachio and barley crops to one unit soil salinity is lower than other crops. However, the highest yield loss as a result of increasing one unit in soil salinity as a scenario for canola and potato crops is 13 and 12 percent, respectively. Due to the decrease in quality and quantity of water resources, the total area under cultivation has decreased, with the lowest and highest reduction being in Kerman and Rafsanjan County, respectively. The results show that the scenario of 15% reduction in available water resources would just increases the area of Bardsir and leads to a decrease in one cubic meter economic productivity for other areas. On the other hand, by applying all three scenarios including decrease in quantity and quality of water resources, gross margin and water use will be reduced due to the decrease in the cultivated area of high yield and water based crops such as alfalfa and pistachio in Kerman region. Also, the results indicate that for all studied areas, increase in salinity by one unit has the most negative effect on economic productivity of one cubic meter of water consumption. In addition, the results reveal that decreasing the quality of water resources due to the increase in salinity encouraged the pistachio growers to cultivate less pistachio crop which would result in reducing their gross profit. Also, decreasing the quality of water resources caused by one unit increase in water salinity has a negative effect on the gross margin (gross profit) of farmers in different regions. This is mainly due to reduction in total area of cultivated pistachio in Rafsanjan County.Conclusion: In general, decreasing the quantity and quality of water resources will cause irreparable damages to the agricultural economy of all studied areas except Bardsir. Therefore, it is vital to adopt appropriate policies to control the quantity and quality of water resources so improving livelihoods and water demand management in the pistachio areas of the province. The increasing salinity poses a serious challenge to the economic productivity of water use and water resources management in Rafsanjan, applying economic productivity improvement tools, such as the use of modern irrigation systems or crop pattern reform strategies and product insurance can be effective in boosting gross margin.
M. Jamshidifar; M. Salarpour; M. Sabouhi; H. Mehrabi Boshrabadi; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani
Abstract
Introduction: Poultry is now one of the largest industry in Khorasan Razavi province and chicken meat has an important role in household food needs. Developing appropriate studies that lead to strategies for handling poultry products to fulfil consumers’ demand have become quite a challenging issue ...
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Introduction: Poultry is now one of the largest industry in Khorasan Razavi province and chicken meat has an important role in household food needs. Developing appropriate studies that lead to strategies for handling poultry products to fulfil consumers’ demand have become quite a challenging issue especially due to crisis situation. Supply chain system in this paper means a chain of processes from the rearing farm to the final consumer of the finished product and provide useful operational analysis of system behaviors for managing supply chain under demand uncertainties and production disruptions.
Materials and Methods: In this paper, a system dynamics model is applied for studying the behavior of the chicken meat supply chain threatened by bird flu, demand fluctuation and Government (State Livestock Affairs Logistics) intervention under the Vensim environment. The model is an extended version of real-life practice which involves producers, consumers and government. A causal loop diagram used to show how interrelated variables affect one another and connect together. This important diagram can handle assumptions regarding facing various calamities and disaster which is an integral part of the poultry industry. This dynamic model development can track possible disasters in time to prepare facing them. To cover more possibility, we propose three scenarios of different levels for demand and present of loss bird. To find out the most efficient rearing rate in crisis situation, demand fluctuation and loss bird rate are considered simultaneously in scenarios. Importance of chicken meat strategic reserve for Norouz lead us to impose a constraint for government purchasing and expenditure during the last month of simulation. Operations during a 120 days are simulated and a what-if analysis performed to study the model stability under uncertainty environment.
Results and Discussion: As a starting position no bird losses rate and demand problems included and supply chain fills all of demands without purchase chicken meat from external markets. The equilibrium was reached when the available live chicken level equals to 382 (ton/day). Results showed that without changing demand levels for achieving supply chain stability, the system need to import chicken meat for entire of the crisis period and government intervenes in market to ensure remunerative prices for producers and affordable prices for consumers. In sanitary crisis situation, decreasing demand can reduce the external purchases and unexpected costs but it decreases net income of producers simultaneously. In all scenarios external purchases and unexpected government purchasing are zero when the demand decreasing level is maximum. The simulation results showed that 10 percent of domestic farms affecting by Bird flu can increase the amount of external purchases up to 40 (ton/day) and give rise to unexpected government expenditures by 3360 (million Rial). It is evident from the model that slaughtering all reared chicken (available live chickens) after exactly 42 days can give number of benefits to the industry and profit is maximize in the simulated behavior for this scenario test. Reduction of rearing time can increase the amount of available chicken meat and net income of producer by 18 percent. In contrast, an increase of 15 days in rearing time can considerably reduce net income of producer by 30 percent. This means that a reduction of rearing time (standardization of poultry size and weight) can be a solution to improve poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province. Income of producer is sensitive to the crisis and it is reduced up to 27 percent at peak of bird loss rate. Poultry producers are suffering from economic loss due to management, bird disease and transportation stress. These factors not only affects the quantity but also decrease the quality of chicken meat. On the other hand, 5 percent decrease in slaughterhouse and transportation mortalities immediately leads to an increase in supply chain incomes and the level of chicken meat inventory. According to the result, with management of chicken transportation, slaughter and rearing time, even in the worst scenario when the loss bird rate was maximum, it is possible to fulfil demand with domestic production capacity.
Conclusions: The supply chain is affected by endogenous and exogenous factors such as government intervention. Therefore an establishment of an integrated system between rearing farms, transport system, slaughterhouse and government purchasing can be helpful especially in crisis period. Poultry industry can integrate complete supply chain network so decision-makers can assist calculating the economic returns and reduce the risk. Moreover, producers will be able to compete with the other provinces and global markets as well as reducing their operational costs. Future research can focus on the different variables and study poultry wastes of processing by-products on the poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province.
S.M. Fahimifard; M. Salarpour; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani; H. Mohammadi; M. Sanaei
Abstract
Introduction: Stock shortage is one of the development impasses in developing countries and trough it the agriculture sector has faced with the most limitation. The share of Iran’s agricultural sector from total investments after the Islamic revolution (1979) has been just 5.5 percent. This fact causes ...
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Introduction: Stock shortage is one of the development impasses in developing countries and trough it the agriculture sector has faced with the most limitation. The share of Iran’s agricultural sector from total investments after the Islamic revolution (1979) has been just 5.5 percent. This fact causes low efficiency in Iran’s agriculture sector. For instance per each 1 cubic meter of water in Iran’s agriculture sector, less that 1 kilogram dry food produced and each Iranian farmer achieves less annual income and has less mechanization in comparison with similar countries in Iran’s 1404 perspective document. Therefore, it is clear that increasing investment in agriculture sector, optimize the budget allocation for this sector is mandatory however has not been adequately and scientifically revised until now. Thus, in this research optimum budget allocation of Iran- Khorasan Razavi province agriculture sector was modeled.
Materials and Methods: In order to model the optimum budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector at first optimum budget allocation between agriculture programs was modeled with compounding three indexes: 1. Analyzing the priorities of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector experts with the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), 2. The average share of agriculture sector programs from 4th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector, and 3.The average share of agriculture sector programs from 5th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector. Then, using Delphi technique potential indexes of each program was determined. After that, determined potential indexes were weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and finally, using numerical taxonomy model to optimize allocation of the program’s budget between cities based on two scenarios. Required data, also was gathered from the budget and planning office of Khorasan Razavi’s Jahad Keshavarzi organization during 2006-2015. They were collected through distributed binary comparison questionnaires related to AHP model between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015 and distributed questionnaires related to Delphi technique between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015. Indeed, Super decision and Taxonomy software were applied to analyze the gathered data.
Results and Discussion: Results of budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector using three mentioned indexes showed that between 8 programs, P1 and P6 have the most and least share, respectively. The results of the Delphi technique for determining potential indexes of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs indicated that totally there are 62 indexes. Findings of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs showed that for budget allocation of P1 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Kalat and Davarzan cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P2 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Bardaskan and Kalat cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P3 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Joghatai cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P4 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Jovein and Torghabe Shandiz cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P5 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Chenaran and Neishabour cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P6 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P7 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Saleh Abad cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. Finally, for budget allocation of P8 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa.
Conclusion: The study concludes that the agriculture sector budget of Khorasan Razavi Province’s has not been allocated optimally. Therefore, paying attention to this fact that agriculture sector budget allocation which carried out previously between various programs, have been provided different instructions for opposite ideas always caused to challenge between beneficiary groups. This study provided a scientific and comprehensive model for budget allocation of agriculture sector between programs and cities using agriculture experts, and can be suggested to governors and Jahad Keshavarzi organizations to apply the results.
M. Salarpour; S. Mojarad; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between ...
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In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export in the Iranian economy was analyzed through examining a non linear relation between the two factors. Therefore, the hypothesis validation upon nonlinearity relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export was analyzed using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR). The results of smooth transition model (STAR) show that there is a nonlinear Granger causality between exchange rate and pistachio export and vice versa. It is therefore recommended ,in order to determine the threshold level of potential benefits of pistachio exports, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between the dynamic exchange rate and pistachio exports should be considered. Furthermore, in order to maintain market share in the international level, understanding target markets of export and achieving complete information upon the position of the major competitors in the production and trade of Pistachio is essential.
F. Alijani; M. Salarpour; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Considering the importance of the impact of subsidy reform on the agricultural sector, the study aimed at understanding consequences of changes in the rates of production subsidy using General equilibrium model based on input-output table in the year 2001.The study conducted based on three scenarios ...
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Considering the importance of the impact of subsidy reform on the agricultural sector, the study aimed at understanding consequences of changes in the rates of production subsidy using General equilibrium model based on input-output table in the year 2001.The study conducted based on three scenarios containing step, down and finally removed rates of production subsidy. The effects on production, value added, employment, export and import activities in the agricultural sector were analyzed. Results showed that production, value added and export of cultivation, livestock and poultry activities have been reduced more than other activities in the field. Results also showed that employment in sub-sections of the agricultural sector and paltry activities have been reduced. Furthermore, elimination of production subsidies had a negative impact on the fish imports, while the impact was positive for imports of other products. Therefore, since the policy had negative impact on the agricultural products, supporting agricultural sector along with reduction in the government’s expenditures is recommended.
M. Zarif; M. Salarpour; A. Karbasi
Abstract
AbstractThis study uses gravity model to examine the most important determinants of was agricultural trade. To This aim, import and export statistics of Iran agricultural products for the period 1380 to 1387 was provided from Iran customs organization and other information was obtained from different ...
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AbstractThis study uses gravity model to examine the most important determinants of was agricultural trade. To This aim, import and export statistics of Iran agricultural products for the period 1380 to 1387 was provided from Iran customs organization and other information was obtained from different internet bases. Random effects estimating and Hausman test ratio result in fixed effects model, which determined the effects of dependent variables over independent ones. First, the effect of independent variables such as GDP, per capita income, Linder effect, geographic distance, exchange rates, exchange rate uncertainty and dummy variable of border was determined on each import and export of agricultural sector. Then dummy variables related to the regional integrations of Organization of Islamic Conference and the ECO were also applied in model. The results showed that the GDP of commercial Partner has positive effect on export and import of agricultural trade but it is smaller for OIC members. Linder effect, geographical distance and exchange rate uncertainty have negative effects on both export and import of Iran agricultural products. Per capita income had a negative effect on export, while it had a huge positive effect on import. real exchange rate had positive but very small effect on import and negative effect on export of Iran agricultural sector. The results showed that cooperating with the OIC members lead to an increase in import and export of Iran agricultural products and it would reduce negative effects of exchange rate uncertainty. Because of the opposite relation between geographical distance and export or import is suggested reinforcement of international transporting infrastructures. In addition Islamic countries Which have shorter geographical distance from Iran have high commercial potential and the necessity for concluding local contracts with them is clearly understood.
S.M. Fahimifard; A.A. Keikha; M. Salarpour
Abstract
AbstractThis study is conducted to examine the transaction costs of obtaining credit from Bank Keshavarzi (BK). High transaction costs are stated as an important factor that limits rural households to access credit in rural areas in developing countries. The data collected from the bank and also by a ...
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AbstractThis study is conducted to examine the transaction costs of obtaining credit from Bank Keshavarzi (BK). High transaction costs are stated as an important factor that limits rural households to access credit in rural areas in developing countries. The data collected from the bank and also by a survey in a multi-stage sampling technique in 1383-1384. After estimating transaction costs of borrowing and lending, the econometric models used to determine the factors that affect the transaction costs of access to credits. The results highlight the importance of transaction cost in the borrowing and lending process. The results reveal that the transaction costs of gaining credit are equivalent to 915510 Rials, that is, an additional 2.68 percent annual interest cost. The average transaction costs of credit supply by BK is 3.4 percent of total costs. The econometric results showed that the size of loan and the experience, education level and information of the borrower are important determinants of the transaction costs.JEI Classification: G21, G28
