Agricultural Economics
M. Aminizadeh; M. Rafati
Abstract
Iran’s agricultural exports have grown significantly in recent years. Cropland products (HS07) have become the second most important group in Iran’s agricultural exports over the last years. However, few studies have investigated the export potentials of cropland products. Therefore, this ...
Read More
Iran’s agricultural exports have grown significantly in recent years. Cropland products (HS07) have become the second most important group in Iran’s agricultural exports over the last years. However, few studies have investigated the export potentials of cropland products. Therefore, this study aims to determine the main factors of Iran’s cropland products exports and calculate the export efficiency and potential in the trading partners. For this aim, the stochastic frontier gravity model is estimated based on balanced panel data covering 21 importing countries over the period of 2001 to 2021. The results indicated that economic and physical size of importing countries have positive and significant effect on the exports of Iran’s cropland products. In addition, common border between Iran and trading partners and economic sanctions have also positive and significant effect on the cropland products exports, while geographical distance between Iran and importing countries has negatively effects on the exports. The results of export efficiency showed that Iran does not have 100 percent efficiency in any destination market over the period of 2015 to 2021. Iran has an export efficiency of more than 50 percent only in Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Canada and Iraq. According to the results, Iran has the highest potential for exports of cropland products in Iraq. Hence, considering the high potentials in neighboring countries and significantly positive effect of common border partners, it is suggested that trading countries with common border like Iraq should be a top priority for the exports of cropland products.
Agricultural Economics
M. Salehnia; M. Rafati
Abstract
IntroductionAgriculture and its products play a crucial role in sustaining human life. The introduction of the green revolution has greatly enhanced agricultural productivity worldwide by providing irrigation water, introducing improved crop varieties, and utilizing inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. ...
Read More
IntroductionAgriculture and its products play a crucial role in sustaining human life. The introduction of the green revolution has greatly enhanced agricultural productivity worldwide by providing irrigation water, introducing improved crop varieties, and utilizing inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. These technologies received substantial public support, leading to significant advancements in agricultural practices. However, the benefits of the green revolution were not equally distributed among all farmers. Large and medium-scale farmers, who had the financial means to afford inputs and equipment, reaped the highest rewards in terms of production and income. Additionally, the excessive use of inorganic fertilizers resulted in soil and water quality degradation, posing a threat to the sustainability of the economic and social progress achieved through the green revolution. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether these challenges also apply at the sub-national or provincial level. By evaluating the level of agricultural sustainability, analyzing the trends in agricultural development, and identifying potential threats, it becomes possible to formulate practical plans for improving sustainability within the agricultural sector. The aim of this study is to assess indicators related to economic, social, and environmental dimensions of agricultural sustainability at the provincial level in Iran.Materials and Methods The assessment of sustainability of agriculture requires determination of meaningful indicators covering economic, social and environmental dimensions. Selection of indicators used in this study was based on relevance of the indicators and availability of secondary data. To achieve the purpose, the latest available information of the statistics of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, the results of the labor force survey of the Statistics Center of Iran and the statistical yearbooks of different provinces were used. In terms of measuring environmental sustainability, indicators of crop diversification, use of organic and inorganic fertilizers and pesticides were selected. The specific indicators used for the analyses in the economic dimension were change in overall crop production (Quantum index of agricultural production) and stability of crop production. The stability of crop production refers to maintaining a certain minimum level of production or a steady increase in production as compared to the base year. The stability of production of major crops was analyzed using the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) normality test and one sample t-test. In the social dimension, indicators of rural labor employment and rural food security were used. Based mainly on secondary data, covering the period of 2005/06–2018/19, each dimension of sustainability was analyzed using selected indicators. Results and DiscussionThe analyses conducted in this study revealed several significant findings. Firstly, the majority of provinces in the country demonstrated a favorable situation in terms of crop diversification, as indicated by the Herfindahl index. This suggests a wide variety of crops being cultivated in these regions. However, there was a notable variation in the use of inorganic fertilizers per unit of land across the country. Furthermore, more than 60% of the country's soils were found to have less than one percent organic carbon, highlighting the need for optimal application and management of organic fertilizers, particularly in Golestan province. The study also identified a high rate of pesticide usage in the northern and southern provinces of the country, indicating potential concerns regarding pesticide management and environmental impact in these regions. Additionally, the analysis revealed either a consistent trend or a significant decrease in the Quantum index of agricultural production in most provinces. This suggests a potential stagnation or decline in agricultural productivity over time in these areas. Moreover, there was a significant decrease in the employment rate of the rural population in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. This finding implies potential shifts in employment patterns and economic dynamics in rural areas. Lastly, the study highlighted the significant share of food expenses in the income of the rural population in Sistan and Balouchestan province, underscoring the importance of addressing food security and affordability challenges in this region. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights into the current state of agricultural sustainability and development at the provincial level in Iran.ConclusionBased on the findings of this research, it can be concluded that regional differences exist in agricultural sustainability within Iran. In light of this, it is recommended to develop effective regional agricultural policies that are based on local-level research. This approach would enable a comprehensive understanding of the environmental concerns and specific needs at both the local and provincial levels. Furthermore, it is suggested to revise the agricultural extension structure to incorporate need-based services, improve the dissemination of information, and provide farm-level trainings. This would ensure that farmers have access to the necessary resources and knowledge to enhance their agricultural practices. The study emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance among the three tiers of agricultural sustainability. Merely focusing on improving one or two tiers would not be sufficient to ensure the overall sustainability of the agricultural sector. Therefore, effective interventions should address economic, social, and environmental aspects simultaneously. Specific interventions proposed in the study include the development of biological pest control methods, particularly for rice and tomatoes. Indirect subsidies for organic and biological fertilizers and pesticides are also recommended. Conservation and management of soil and water resources are crucial for stabilizing production. Additionally, diversification of income sources and livelihood options for smallholder farmers, especially in Sistan and Balouchestan and Kordistan provinces, is recommended to enhance their resilience and sustainability. By implementing these recommended interventions, it is anticipated that agricultural sustainability in Iran can be improved, ensuring a more balanced and resilient agricultural sector.
Agricultural Economics
M. Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody; E. Javdan; M. Rafati
Abstract
Introduction Dietary diversity is a feature of healthy diets. This is because essential nutrients are not present in one type of food at the same time, rather, they are found in a diet consisting of several nutrients. However, in recent years, the food tastes of Iranian families have shifted to ...
Read More
Introduction Dietary diversity is a feature of healthy diets. This is because essential nutrients are not present in one type of food at the same time, rather, they are found in a diet consisting of several nutrients. However, in recent years, the food tastes of Iranian families have shifted to high-calorie and non-nutritional value foods, which has increased the number of patients with non-communicable diseases in the country. The choice and acceptance of different diets depends on environmental, economic, socio-cultural and psychological factors.Materials and Methods Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic goals of the country 20-year vision document, the present study evaluates the dietary diversity of households and its effective factors in Tehran province. To achieve this goal, the raw information of household expenditure-income in 2020 has been used. In the present study, the Berry dietary diversity index (BI) was used to quantify the dietary diversity variable and the order logit model was used to investigate and evaluate the effect of demographic, economic and social variables on it. Results and Discussion The results showed that only 23.2% of Tehran households have high dietary diversity and 76.8% of households have low or medium dietary diversity. Based on the results, the variables of head household age, place of residence, working hours of household head and household income level has a positive (direct) association and in contrast, the variables of head of household literacy, household size and employment status of head of household in a negative (inverse) direction affect the level of dietary diversity of households in Tehran province.Conclusion The food diversity of households in Tehran province is very low. If the food price level is low and stable, increasing incomes can lead consumers to diversify their food baskets and move from consuming low-value cereals and root and tuber products to consuming high-nutrition foods such as meat, dairy, and fruits and vegetables. In this regard, a review of the experience of many European, Latin American and Asian countries shows that stability in food prices along with cash aid and targeted food packages can increase consumption and food diversity of households and food security in poor households, especially women and children. Families living in Tehran province, which have a larger population, have less food diversity. As the household dimension increases, the minimum food needs increase; this reduces the volume and quality of food available to the household and leads to food insecurity. In the current situation, the country is struggling with economic problems caused by sanctions, inflation, unemployment. Continuation of this, along with lack of effective support for families, can deprive families of the ability and facilities to have more children due to food insecurity. Accordingly, the correct and complete design and implementation of incentive policies and support for large families is necessary. Finally, the role and importance of education and literacy of households in their food diversity is very high. In this regard, responsible organizations can play an important role in obtaining, processing and understanding nutrition information and how to access credible information sources through culture and specialized and general training in food literacy.
Agricultural Economics
M. Rafati; M. Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody; E. Javdan
Abstract
Introduction: The rapid acceleration of inflation over the past decade has increased the cost of living in the metropolitan area of Tehran. The World Food Program (WFP) report shows that Tehran province has the highest rate of welfare inequality compared to other provinces in Iran, and a significant ...
Read More
Introduction: The rapid acceleration of inflation over the past decade has increased the cost of living in the metropolitan area of Tehran. The World Food Program (WFP) report shows that Tehran province has the highest rate of welfare inequality compared to other provinces in Iran, and a significant portion of the province's population has only abdominal satiety. This has led to an increase in short stature, cardiovascular disease, cancer, obesity, diabetes, tooth decay and gastrointestinal diseases among Tehran families. In this regard, although with the decision of the Working Group on Health and Food Security and the participation of various agencies, programs have been carried out to improve the level of health and nutrition of the residents of the province, but the prevalence of various deficiencies and diseases may be due to lack of nutrients in the food basket and as a result of food insecurity.Materials and Methods: Since ensuring health and food security is one of the strategic goals of the 20-year vision document of the country, in the present study, households living in Tehran province were first divided into three lower income deciles, four middle deciles and three upper income deciles according to the raw data of the income expenditure of the Statistics Center of Iran. Then based on the classification of the commodity group of the Statistics Center of Iran and using the nutritional performance matrix, the level of nutrient intake in different income deciles of Tehran province in 2018 has been investigated. Then, using the Matching method, nutrient consumption, the diversity and food security of the province's income deciles have been analyzed.Results and Discussion: The results showed that the level of calcium, iron and vitamin C intake among households in the lower three deciles of Tehran province is very low and an adult received only about 14, 487 and 75 mg of these three nutrients per day. As for other nutrients, an adult in the lower three deciles of income received protein and vitamin A 72 mg and 551 micrograms, respectively which is at the minimum daily requirement and only carbohydrates and vitamin B1 has been received 339 g and 1.5 mg, respectively which is above the minimum daily requirement. It should be noted that in all income deciles, the level of carbohydrate intake is more than triple the daily threshold required by an adult (130 g). Finally, according to the results, the lower three deciles of income have lower diversity and food security than the other deciles.Conclusion: Considering the current situation of receiving micronutrients in Tehran province, the culture and nutritional literacy of households has a great importance and role that responsible organizations can play an important role in promoting it through culture as well as specialized and general education. At the same time, the stability of food prices along with the provision of cash grants and targeted food packages can increase the consumption and food diversity of households and significantly increase food security in poor households, especially women and children. In this regard, considering that a significant part of the country's resources is wasted annually in the form of hidden and non-targeted subsidies, Iran ranks first in the world in the payment of non-targeted food and fuel subsidies, therefore, targeting subsidies and paying cash and non-cash subsidies with proper identification of the target community, in accordance with the conditions of the country is an important issue that should be considered by policy makers.
S. Gholipour; R. Mohammadzadeh; M. Bakhshoodeh; Y. Azarinfar; M. Rafati
Abstract
AbstractThe objective of this study is to investigate the long run and short run interactions between agricultural trade liberalization and shares of the two sectors of agriculture and services in the total export and import products and services of Iran during the years 1961-2008. To figure out interactions, ...
Read More
AbstractThe objective of this study is to investigate the long run and short run interactions between agricultural trade liberalization and shares of the two sectors of agriculture and services in the total export and import products and services of Iran during the years 1961-2008. To figure out interactions, the vector correction model was used. The ratio of the sum of imports and exports to the GDP were considered as an index of trade openness. The Johansen test reveled that there are three long term relations among the variables of this study. Based on the findings, the higher the level of agricultural trade openness goes, the more the import shares of agriculture and service sectors in the long run are. Furthermore, agricultural trade liberalization has caused the exports of both agricultural products and services to decline in the short term.
M. Rafati; Y. Azarinfar; R. Mohammadzadeh
Abstract
AbstractThe aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and Price of sugar beet in Iran. For this purpose, Models applied to forecast are ARIMA, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, Artificial Neural Network and ARCH for period 1993-2008. Results ...
Read More
AbstractThe aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and Price of sugar beet in Iran. For this purpose, Models applied to forecast are ARIMA, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, Artificial Neural Network and ARCH for period 1993-2008. Results of Durbin-Watson tests, land, production and price of sugar beet series were found non stochastic and predictable. Based on the lowest forecasting error criterion, ARIMA is the best model for forecast production and price of sugar beet series. But in orther to forecast land of sugar beet, Neural Network model is the best. Hence, using the forecast method can affect on different policy about production via forecasting the fluctuation variables.Jel Classification: Q11 – D12 – C32 – C22
A.R. Nikooie; M. Rafati; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
Abstract Producing of flowers and ornamental plants in Iran has some challenges and failure in the market structure and marketing of these products. In this study, we evaluated the different marketing channels of flowers and ornamental plants in the existing market structure according to economic criteria ...
Read More
Abstract Producing of flowers and ornamental plants in Iran has some challenges and failure in the market structure and marketing of these products. In this study, we evaluated the different marketing channels of flowers and ornamental plants in the existing market structure according to economic criteria and the characteristics of market structure. Cut-Rose and Esfahan Province were selected as the production and product region samples, respectively. The results showed that producers share from consumer price and marketing efficiency is low. However, in this system due to high losses, there is low technical efficiency. Although, due to high retail price to farm price, price efficiency is high and therefore the total efficiency is also high. Thus, the share of other marketing factors from this high ratio is more than producers. The study of market structure showed that the goods are non-homogeneous and entrance requirement is hard and combined with uncertainty. Therefore, the marketing system of flowers and ornamental plants is inefficient and the market structure is a non-competitive structure. This condition that causes incomplete information in the market, will not allow the possibility of production planning for producers and as a result of excess supply or demand, the level of price volatility in wholesale is high. While the retail price has less volatility and reduced market price is not transferred to the consumer in many times. Therefore, the lowest and highest possible price is respectively received and paid by producers and consumers. In this regard, reform of flower market structure was proposed in Iran.
