Agricultural Economics
H. Shahbazi
Abstract
IntroductionThe market and the conditions governing it, especially the food industry, are always important issues for policymakers, decision makers and planners in the public and private sectors. Because market conditions are important in terms of the level of competition or monopoly on access to goods ...
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IntroductionThe market and the conditions governing it, especially the food industry, are always important issues for policymakers, decision makers and planners in the public and private sectors. Because market conditions are important in terms of the level of competition or monopoly on access to goods from the point of view of government decision-makers and the price from the point of view of production and private sector suppliers. In addition, both access and price factors greatly impact the amount of consumption and, consequently, the level of consumer’s welfare. Dairy products, especially milk and cheese, from the consumer's point of view, in addition to being good for health, from the point of view of agricultural producers, it is a strategic product, and from the point of view of government decision-makers, it is a factor in changing the level of social welfare. Of course, the market behavior has an important effect on the price and the motivation to produce and finally consume milk and cheese. However, factors such as encouraging consumption through public advertising can have a great effect on consumption motivation (Shahbazi, 2015). But the lack of competitive conditions in the production of products can reduce the consumption of milk and cheese and, as a result, create lost welfare for consumers and society. In other words, having a large share of the milk market by a small number of companies and production companies has made the market of dairy products a monopoly market and the existence of a monopoly in the market is considered one of the most important factors that cause lost welfare for consumers. (Gisser, 1982; Shahbazi, et al., 2009). Materials and MethodsIn this research, an attempt has been made to provide a structural framework for examining the performance of the dairy industry, especially milk and cheese (in terms of measuring the level of competition or monopoly). Based on the theory of NEIO, it is possible to quantify firms' market behavior in the absence of marginal cost data. The choice of demand model is of key importance in this type of analysis, since modeling a firm’s market behavior relies on correct representation of consumer preferences (Hovhannisyan & Bozic, 2013). In explaining consumer behavior, the functions selected for demand should be compatible with consumer theory, satisfy its theoretical characteristics, be easy to estimate, and have high predictive power. If, as the research shows, there is a non-linear relationship between demand and income, using a linear expenditure model will lead to an error and provide incorrect parameters. Recently, discrete choice demand models, such as the Logit specification, have increased in popularity in applied industrial organization research (Werden & Froeb, 1994). The random coefficient logit demand model is of particular interest, which allows for product differentiation and consumer heterogeneity. Finally, in this study, like some leading studies in the field of estimating the demand function of goods such as Hovhannisyan and Bozic (2013), uses an inverse demand system to create a structural framework of market behavior. In this approach, prices are endogenous. To model the inverse demand function and supply function, Leunberger's profit function approach (Luenberger, 1992) is used. Also, using the CV approach based on the study of Hovhannisyan & Bozic (2013), the amount of markup due to the existence of market power at the retail level is estimated for the years 2015-2021 in 7 selected provinces.Results and DiscussionThe choice of demand specification may significantly affect the estimation of structural coefficients. Therefore, several demand determination tests are performed using the Bewley likelihood ratio test (Bewley, 1986). The results show that there are quadratic utility effects in inverse demand functions. By using this feature, it is shown that the regional heterogeneity, i.e., , is the same as the lagged quantity, i.e., , the lagged price, i.e., and non-linear time effects, i.e., , are significant effects regarding the demand for milk and cheese. But seasonality, i.e., , has a negligible effect on the market for milk and cheese. The final demand relationship is estimated based on the results of the tests of various constraints on the model. The estimation of the complete model is done using the FIML method. Based on Hovhannisyan and Gould (2012), the constraint is applied. The estimation results indicate the presence of nonlinearity effects (effects) in utility function. Also, regional heterogeneity ( ), and the lagged quantity ( ), lagged price ( ) and nonlinear time effects ( ) have essential effects on milk and cheese demand. The results show that in the case of the milk industry, retailers have received the most mark up in B1 brand milk (milk produced by Iranian Dairy Industries Co.-IDIC) during the studied years. In such a way that on average they have received a markup equal to 4.8%, while this markup for milk produced by other brands is equal to 3.9%. Regarding the cheese industry, retailers receive a higher price markup for B2 cheese compared to cheese produced by competing companies of IDIC, averaging at 4.0%. However, the price markup for cheese produced by IDIC is only slightly lower, averaging at 3.9%. Also, the results show that there is a lot of regional heterogeneity among the provinces of the country (the studied provinces) in the dairy products industry that the variation in the degree of advancement of dairy industries across various provinces may be regarded as the foremost contributing factor. So that the surcharge at the retail level is different in different provinces. The price increase in B1 brand milk has changed from 3.3% in East Azarbaijan province to 7% in Razavi Khorasan province. But the retailers have received markup for milk produced by other brands, i.e. B2, from 3% in West Azarbaijan province to 6.9% in Isfahan province. In the case of cheese, the surcharge received by competing companies of IDIC has changed from 2% in Fars province to 6.5% in East Azarbaijan province. However, the retailers have received additional price from 1.5% in East Azarbaijan province to 6.7% in Fars province for the cheese produced in IDIC. ConclusionAs anticipated, the market dynamics have exerted a significant influence on pricing, thereby shaping the incentives for milk and cheese production and, ultimately, consumption. The lack of competitive conditions in the production of milk and cheese (which has been mentioned in some studies such as Shahbazi et al., 2009 and Shahbazi & Faryadras, 2018 can reduce the consumption of milk and cheese and in the result of creating lost welfare for consumers and society. In other words, the possession of a large share of the milk market by a small number of companies (especially IDIC) and production companies makes the milk market a monopoly market, and the existence of a monopoly in the market is considered one of the most important factors that cause lost welfare for consumers. One of the processes that create competition is the development of the industry in terms of increasing the number of production companies by encouraging people to create dairy companies by providing incentive facilities from the government. Planning and investing in product advertising, especially in brands with a small market size, can help increase competition and transparency in the market. Acknowledging regional disparities in the branding and marketing of milk and cheese commodities is a crucial factor that demands attention. Additionally, factoring in market share dynamics and evolving consumer presumptions can provide valuable insights for making informed decisions regarding production and management strategies.
Agricultural Economics
H. Balali; H. Shahbazi; Z. Seid Mohammadi; M. Baniasadi
Abstract
Introduction: Agriculture is one of the basic sectors of any country and is very important in creating employment and production of industrial raw materials. Although the most important role of agriculture in any country is to provide the food security. The world's population is growing, and resources ...
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Introduction: Agriculture is one of the basic sectors of any country and is very important in creating employment and production of industrial raw materials. Although the most important role of agriculture in any country is to provide the food security. The world's population is growing, and resources are dwindling. Therefore, feeding the growing population of the world requires more agricultural production. One of the ways to increase agricultural production is to increase yield per hectare. Chemical fertilizers significantly increase production per hectare. But excessive use of chemical fertilizers can also lead to environmentally externalities such as groundwater pollution, reduced quality of agricultural products and endanger human health and the environment. Therefore, the optimal use of production inputs in the agricultural sector is essential. Unfortunately, despite the emphasis of agricultural economists on the optimal use of production inputs, this issue has been taken for granted by farmers and policymakers in the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal economic level of use of chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) in the production of irrigated wheat and barley. Materials and Methods: In order to determine the optimal economic level of chemical fertilizer inputs (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) in the production of irrigated wheat and barley in Iran, Bayesian approach and non-normally distributed stochastic plateau function, based on the developed Von Liebig algorithm were used. The estimation of the optimal amount of input usage depends on the functional form and the distribution assumptions based on the production data. The stochastic plateau function is one of the functions has been used to determine the optimal amount of inputs (especially chemical fertilizers). The stochastic plateau function provides insight into why farmers may over-use inputs. The efficiency of the linear stochastic plateau function is better than nonlinear and polynomial functions, and it estimates a more realistic pattern of farmers' expected profits, because the function is stochastic. For simple model estimation, only the input of chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) is considered as the limiting resource. If it is assumed that the threshold point is related to the intercept, which represents the yield of crops without input consumption, the equation of the stochastic plateau function is written as the following relation: (1) Where the yield of the crops in Iran, K is the amount of input in the crop production, and θ are the coefficients of the yield function that must be estimated, and is the transmitter intercept that represents all random variables. The used data in this study were collected from agricultural statistics and the production cost database of the Agriculture Ministry. The panel data were collected during 2007-2017 period. Results and Discussion: Based on the results of the study, the average optimal consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and irrigated barley in Iran was estimated 117.05 and 29.00 kg/ha, respectively, while the current average consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and barley is 163.626 and 38.75 kg/ha, respectively. In other words, during the years 2007 to 2017, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer used in the production of irrigated wheat was 46.576 kg/ha (equivalent to 28.46%) and in the production of irrigated barley was 9.75 kg/ha (equivalent to 25.16%) more than the optimal level. Also, the potential yield of irrigated wheat and barley with respect to nitrogen fertilizer input was estimated 2754.5 and 2549.80 kg/ha, respectively, in the Bayesian method. The average optimal use of phosphate fertilizer in production of irrigated wheat in Iran was estimated as 97.70 kg/ha, while the current average consumption of phosphate fertilizer in production of irrigated wheat is equal to 123.06.02 kg/ha. In other words, during the years 2007 to 2017, the amount of phosphate fertilizer used in the production of irrigated wheat in Iran was 25.362 kg per hectare (equivalent to 20.609%) more than the optimal level. Also, the potential yield of irrigated wheat due to phosphate fertilizer input, about 2904.54 kg/ha has been obtained in Bayesian method. the average optimal consumption of potash fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and irrigated barley in Iran was estimated 39.68 and 81.81 kg/ha, respectively, while the current average consumption of potash fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and barley is 50.64 and 134.18 kg/ha, respectively. In other words, during the years 2007 to 2017, the amount of potash fertilizer used in the production of irrigated wheat was 10.96 kg/ha (equivalent to 21.65%) and in the production of irrigated barley was 52.37 kg/ha (equivalent to 39.02%) more than the optimal level. Conclusion: According to the results of present study, farmers in the production of wheat and barley use chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) more than the optimal amount, so that the average optimal use of chemical fertilizers of nitrogen, phosphate and potash in the production of irrigated wheat, respectively 28.52, 20.59 and 78.36, and in the production of irrigated barley, the average optimal use of nitrogen and potash chemical fertilizers, respectively 74.84 and 39.03% per hectare, are less than the current amount of chemical fertilizer use in the country. According to the results of the study, in order to more efficiently use of chemical fertilizers and to reduce environmental pollution caused by their use in agricultural production, the government should reduce the direct payment of chemical fertilizer subsidies. Regarding the elimination of subsidies and pricing of chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash), the importance of the type of fertilizer in crop production, input production elasticity and input demand elasticity should be considered.
H. Shahbazi; A. Samdeliri
Abstract
Introduction: Dairy products, especially milk, play an important role in healthy food basket of Iranian households. The long-standing increase in the consumption of this food has been a policy of the government. In recent years, government efforts to increase per capita consumption of dairy products ...
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Introduction: Dairy products, especially milk, play an important role in healthy food basket of Iranian households. The long-standing increase in the consumption of this food has been a policy of the government. In recent years, government efforts to increase per capita consumption of dairy products and milk have led to an increase in demand for these products; with the per capita consumption of milk in 2016 equals 27.1 liters. Studies indicate that price of milk does not have impressive impact on milk consumption. For example, Cyprus, with very high price for milk, is one of the leading countries in milk consumption. Therefore, it seems that other factors have contributed to increase of demand for milk in the countries. One of the factors is general advertising of milk that promotes milk consumption among households. Today, advertising is an essential element in introducing goods and products and serving the needs of human life. Advertising should be used to boost economic movement by identifying the product. The role of advertising can be examined in a chain of influence from firm level to market level for sales and product demands. Therefore, because of the milk consumption importance, governments, spend money on advertising in order to increase its consumption. This policy (increasing demand by general milk advertising) has been prevalent in the world for many years and has been the main task of governments, for example, in the United Kingdom in 2015 about 12.4 million pounds or in the United States between years of 2000 to 2001, an average of 25.1 million dollars annually been spent on general advertising of milk. This approach can also be applied to government policies in Iran. Given that general advertising is costly, the key question is whether general advertising in milk industry can affect the demand for milk (from the consumer's point of view) and, as a result, the profit of milk industry (from the perspective of producers). Although the results of assessment about the effect of advertising on consumption and profits of firms producing basic goods, including milk, have been reported in other studies, but the reliability of estimates has not been studied. This is basically due to the unknown type of statistical distribution of the effect of advertising.Materials and Methods: In this study, the effect of advertising is estimated by analyzing the statistical significance of general advertising and its reliability. Also, with the simultaneous review of the effect of general advertising on industry profits and retail demand in a multi-market equilibrium model that considers advertising effects from farm to retail, the results are more reliable. So, the Significance of model of general advertising on milk industry profit in a multi-market equilibrium is examined. The purpose of this study is to investigate the significant role of general advertisement on Iran’s milk retail demand and industry profits in a multi-market equilibrium in 2016.Results and Discussion: Results indicated that by increasing the price elasticity of demand for processed milk at retail level, the level of advertising significance statistically declined and by increasing in input prices for raw milk production at farm level (forage, straw, wheat, barley, etc.), in most own price elasticities scenarios of demand, the level of advertising significance statistically declined, but by increasing the optimal advertisement budget (advertising intensity index), the level of advertising significance statistically increases, but when the markets are considered as multi equilibrium, the interval of milk general advertising significances declines for the minimum and maximum advertising intensity indicator. However, the more the market moves towards non-competitiveness, the significance level of processed milk general advertising declines. Also, results show that the average of the F statistics in competitive multi- market of milk is 1.519 to 10.657. This value for the competitive multi- market of dairy is 3.032 3.692 and for the non-competitive market is 0.981-3.414. Namely, with a less competitive market, general advertising effect declines significantly. On average, in different scenarios of the input price at farm level, general advertising effect varies significantly from 2.937 to 3.414. The mean of milk advertising significant level in all scenarios is 3.883. Therefore, in all considered scenarios, milk advertising has a significant effect on consumer demand and the profit of the milk industry. The effect of processed milk general advertising at retail level on the price of raw milk at farm level shows that the effect of advertising on farm prices decreases with increasing price elasticity. Also, by increasing the index of optimal advertising intensity, the effect of advertising on farm prices also decreases. The more the market goes to non-competitive, the effect of general advertising on the price increases at farm level. The average advertising effectiveness (advertising budget) is found to be at farm level price of 0.009226.Conclusion: According to this study results, the effect of advertising on industry profits is significant enough to justify advertising programs. This issue is examined by considering the statistical distribution of the effect of advertising on industry profits as a function of the statistical distribution of the effect of advertising on consumption. The results showed that the F-statistic for examining the effect of advertising on industrial profits was equal to the F-statistic associated with the reduced form of advertising effect on product prices. While the size of the effect of advertising on profits increased with the effect of advertising on demand, there was no significant correlation between the effect of demand and the significant effect of profit. One of the most important results of this study is that the statistical significance of advertising in demand function is neither necessary nor sufficient for the statistical significance of the effect of advertising in the reduced forms of price and profit functions of the industry. Therefore, it is suggested that in the study of the effectiveness of variables, the effects of different levels of marketing, the assumption of the type of market are considered. Also, in order to increase the influence of general advertising on milk consumption, decision makers can implement polices to reduce the prices of inputs and increase the intensity of advertising. Also, policies that make the milk market more competitive (at various levels of marketing) can be beneficial.
H. Shahbazi; A. Samdeliri
Abstract
Introduction: In this study, total factor productivity growth components in rough rice production are assisting by econometric approach and stochastic frontier function during 2005-2013 for several provinces (Mazandaran province, Guilan province, Golestan province, Fars province, Khoozestan province). ...
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Introduction: In this study, total factor productivity growth components in rough rice production are assisting by econometric approach and stochastic frontier function during 2005-2013 for several provinces (Mazandaran province, Guilan province, Golestan province, Fars province, Khoozestan province). According to Food and Agriculture Organization statics, Iran is the 3rd importer and 20th exporter of rice in the world. But, during the study years (2005-2013), Iran has been one of the 6 largest importers of these products that on average about 33 percent of domestic needs are provided by imports. Annual per capita consumption of rice during 1990-2012 had been changed from 38.6 to 43.9 Kilogram. So, it can be concluded that rice has a special place in the Iranian consumption bundle. But in the production sector, cultivation area has been decreasing 15 percent during 2005-2009 and was fixed during 2009-2013. These matters indicate that domesticate production cannot provide domesticate consumption. One of the suitable ways of increasing production is increasing in total factor productivity. This strategy is needed to identify components of TFP growth sources. So, the main goal of this study is the decomposition of rice TFP in Iran.
Materials and Methods: TFP decommission growth can be analytically by four approaches included econometric estimation of production and the cost function, TFP indices of Divisia and Turnqvist, Data envelopment approaches (DEA) such as Malmqvist and stochastic frontier analysis. This study uses a stochastic frontier analysis to decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth into four components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency (TE) change, scale efficiency (SE) change, and allocative efficiency (AE) change. For this new approach, at first, Translog production function is estimated by gathering data. So, by estimation of Translog production function, total factor productivity growths are decomposed to TC and changes in TE, SE, and AE. For the total factor productivity decomposition, we employ the time-varying model for technical inefficiency. Firm inefficiency is assumed to be distributed as a generalized truncated–normal random variable which is distributed independently of the normally distributed random errors.
Results and Discussion: Results indicate technical efficiency have been 0.86, 0.79, 0.69, 0.73 and 0.86 for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively for the year of 2012. That is, most technical efficiencies were for Mazandaran and Fars provinces. Also, technical efficiency has been 0.73, 0.75, 0.77, 0.81 and 0.81 for a farm with size less than 0.5 Ha, between 0.5 and 1 Ha, between 1 and 2 Ha, between 2 and 3 Ha and more than 3 Ha, respectively for years of 2012. That is, most technical efficiencies were from a farm with the size of more than 2 ha. The annual growth rate of technical efficiency changes during 2005-2013 have been 2.3, 1.6, 0.3, 0.9 and 1.6 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. For Iran, also has been 1.5 percent. The annual growth rate of scale efficiency change during 2005-2013 have been 1.5, 1, 1, 1.2 and 2.3 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. Also, for Iran it has been 1.9 percent. Annual growth rate of Allocative efficiency change during 2005-2013 have been 0.01, 0.6, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.5 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. Also, for Iran it has been 0.8 percent. Finally, annual growth rate of TFP change during 2005-2013 have been 4.8, 3.8, 2.05, 3.1 and 4.7 percent for Mazandaran, Guilan, Golestan Khoozstan and Fars provinces, respectively. For Iran, also has been 4.3 percent. The most and least growth were for Mazandaran and Golestan Provinces. Differences in rough rice total factor productivity growth rates in the provinces were found to be explained primarily by differences in scale efficiency and technical efficiency. Scale elasticities for a year between 2005 and 2013 were between 1.13 and 1.12 for Mazandaran, between 1.12 and 1.13 (with fluctuation) for Guilan, between 1.14 and 1.13 for Golestan, between 1.18 and 1.19 for Khoozestan and between 1.14 and 1.18 for Fars. So, scale elasticities average between the sum of farms (between 1.12 and 1.18) shows that economics of scale exists in rough rice production technology. Scale elasticities for a year between 2005 and 2013 was between 1.24 and 1.27 for farm with size of less than 0.5 ha, between 1.17 and 1.22 for farm with size of between 0.5 and 1 ha, between 1.0.8 and 1.18 for farm with size of between 1 and 2 ha, between 1.05 and 1.13 for farm with size of between 2 and 3 ha and between 1.01 and 1.09 for farm with a size of more than 3 ha.
Conclusions: With the assumptions that rough rice production technology is similar in all provinces, approximately, differences between provinces in scale elasticities are about the size of the farm. That is, smaller farms in comparison with larger farms have more economics of scale. Finally, it can be noted that by increasing in size of farms, we can increase technical efficiency and TFP of rice production.
H. Shahbazi
Abstract
Introduction One of the main targets of planners, decision makers and governments is increasing society health with promotion and production of suitable and healthy food. One of the basic commodities that have important role in satisfaction of required human food is milk. So, some part of government ...
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Introduction One of the main targets of planners, decision makers and governments is increasing society health with promotion and production of suitable and healthy food. One of the basic commodities that have important role in satisfaction of required human food is milk. So, some part of government and producer healthy budget allocate to milk consumption promotion by using generic advertising. If effectiveness of advertising budget on profitability is more, producer will have more willing to spend for advertising. Determination of optimal generic advertising budget is one of important problem in managerial decision making in producing firm as well as increase in consumption and profit and decrease in wasting and non-optimality of budget.
Materials and Methods: In this study, optimal generic advertising budget intensity index (advertising budget share of production cost) was estimated under two different scenarios by using equilibrium replacement model. In equilibrium replacement model, producer surplus are maximized in respect to generic advertising in retail level. According to market where two levels of farm and processing before retail exist and there is trade in farm and retail level, we present different models. Fixed and variable proportion hypothesis is another one. Finally, eight relations are presented for determination of milk generic advertising optimum budget. So, we use data from several resources such as previous studies, national (Iran Static center) and international institute (Fao) formal data and own estimation. Because there are several estimations in previous studies, we identify some scenarios (in two general scenarios) for calculation of milk generic advertising optimum budget.
Results and Discussion: Estimation of milk generic advertising optimum budget in scenario 1 shows that in case of one market level, fixed supplies and no trade, optimum budget is 0.4672539 percent. In case of one market level and no trade, optimum budget is 0.3674844 percent. In case of one market level with trade, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of farm input, changed from 0.3675013 to 0.3674941 percent. In case of two market level and no trade at either market levels, optimum budget is 0.5094457 percent. In case of two market levels with trade only at retail, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of retail goods are changed from 0.509446 to 0.3674844 percent. In case of two market levels with trade only at farm, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of farm input are changed from 0.5094600 to 0.5094951 percent. In case of two market levels with trade at both retail and farm, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of retail goods and farm input are changed from 0.5085780 to 0.5117381 percent. This index in variable proportion hypothesis will be changed from 0.4143826 to 0.4164392.Estimation of milk generic advertising optimum budget in scenario 2 shows that in case of one market level, fixed supplies and no trade, optimum budget is 9.639368 percent. In case of one market level and no trade, optimum budget 8.9480986 percent. In case of one market level with trade, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of farm input, changed from 8.948178 to 8.948440 percent. In case of two market level and no trade at either market levels, optimum budget is 14.4113143 percent. In case of two market levels with trade only at retail, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of retail goods are changed from 14.413087 to 14.447182 percent. In case of two market levels with trade only at farm, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of farm input are changed from 14.413301 to 14.413689 percent. In case of two market levels with trade at both retail and farm, optimum budget according to own price trade elasticity of retail goods and farm input are changed from 14.379081 to 14.413792 percent. This index in variable proportion hypothesis will be changed from 13.294219 to 13.323525. Finally, Results indicate that milk generic advertising budget intensity index will be changed from 0.3674844 to 14.4474182 percent with mean of 0.4617576 percent for scenario 1 and 13.445766 percent for scenario 2.
Conclusion: According to the results, we proposed that milk producer should spend 13.44 percent of their production cost to generic advertising. This spending can increase milk consumption and it increase health society. Moreover, it decreases the household care and remedy spending and it increases the profitability of milk production firms. Also, government could spend to milk generic advertising from healthy budget of ministry of medical health, care and education or from agricultural promotion budget of ministry of Agri-Jahad.
S.S. Hosseini; H. Shahbazi
Abstract
Estimation of agricultural sector demand and supply and identification of its determinants could lead to more efficient policies and planning of this section. In this study, aggregate demand and supply of agriculture sector for years of 1959-2007 by using of nonlinear restricted ARMAX model are estimated. ...
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Estimation of agricultural sector demand and supply and identification of its determinants could lead to more efficient policies and planning of this section. In this study, aggregate demand and supply of agriculture sector for years of 1959-2007 by using of nonlinear restricted ARMAX model are estimated. Result indicates that aggregate agriculture demand is inelastic in short and long run. Those elasticities are -0.118 and -0.162, respectively. Demand own price adjustment coefficient is about 0.273. Also, supply short and long run own price elasticities are 0.129 and 0.166, respectively. Its adjustment coefficient is 0.225. These results accentuate to Agricultural Product necessity nature.
H. Shahbazi; M. Kavoosi Kalashami; Gh.R. Peykani; Z. Abbasi Far
Abstract
AbstractMarketing element’s contrastive behaviors toward price risk had considerable effect on marketing margin in a way that transferring increase in price to final consumer, reduces purchasing power and so consumption amounts of consumers. Present study evaluated effective parameters on marketing ...
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AbstractMarketing element’s contrastive behaviors toward price risk had considerable effect on marketing margin in a way that transferring increase in price to final consumer, reduces purchasing power and so consumption amounts of consumers. Present study evaluated effective parameters on marketing margin in 2 level of ranch-processing and processing- retail of beef and lamb with consideration of risk effect and risky behavior and also demand and supply sides variables from 1997 - 2003. The Results revealed that, Also, elasticity of price risk variable (price fluctuation) in slaughterhouse and retail levels respect to farm-slaughterhouse and slaughterhouse-retail marketing margin for beef, equal to 0.51 and 1.78, respectively and for lamb obtained 0.03 and 0.54.
H. Salami; H. Shahbazi
Abstract
AbstractIn this study the AIDADS which is a generalization of Linear Expenditure System (LES) and in contrast to the latter model allows the presence of nonlinear relationship between demand and consumption expenditure is applied to the Iranian consumption data on beef, lamb, broiler, fish, milk, apple ...
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AbstractIn this study the AIDADS which is a generalization of Linear Expenditure System (LES) and in contrast to the latter model allows the presence of nonlinear relationship between demand and consumption expenditure is applied to the Iranian consumption data on beef, lamb, broiler, fish, milk, apple and orange for period 1976-2006. Results indicate that, income elasticity, derived from both restricted and unrestricted models, has a nonlinear relationship with per capita income (expenditure). Thus, LES which is widely used in empirical studies may results in an unrealistic elasticities and inappropriate policy implication. Results based on the estimated AIDADS reveal that income elasticity for beef and lamb are less than one, for apple is equal one, and for milk, fish and chicken are more than one. Therefore, the latter group of commodities is considered to luxury, while that of the first group is necessary.
