Agricultural Economics
Mehdi Mahmoudi; Hosein Mohammadi; A. Karbasi
Abstract
Introduction According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 2.7 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population ...
Read More
Introduction According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 2.7 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste. Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production used by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future; It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It should be remembered that the amount of waste created by consumer’s ranges from 1 kg/household/week to 4.5 kg/person/week based on consumer's behavioral characteristics; it can be variable. Therefore, in this research, considering the importance of agricultural inputs (especially water) for the production of these agricultural products and the high percentage of share in consumption portfolio of households; Subgroups of fruits and vegetables were selected.Materials and Methods The research case study believes that in addition to consumers of Mashhad; there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops as well as main market squares of city, and each can have a different percentage of waste from agricultural products. These differences can be variable based on the urban area and based on these differences; A model should be chosen that can take into account the heterogeneity of the studied society. Based on this, the multilevel Bayesian model was used as a more suitable tool, which is mentioned in following section on the modeling method of this model.Results and Discussion Based on the results in table (9), gender variable according to mean value of its parameter distribution (0.8285) is in the estimated confidence interval; It is one of the variables affecting reduction of waste of fruit and vegetable products in such a way that gender of being a woman and the management of family affairs by women (compared to men); it reduces waste. For variable of education level of consumers, waste created by fruit and vegetable products is effective only in diploma to bachelor group (compared to education level group to diploma) and according to negative sign of average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) it shows that this category they produce more waste than people. The variable of household size has an effect on amount of waste of fruit and vegetable products (parameter distribution mean = 0.3151) and increasing dimension and size of the household has reduced waste. Also, the number of people working in the family (parameter distribution mean = 0.3733) has reduced the waste of fruit and vegetable products, and this can be because with increase in number of workers in families; level of income can change and products with better quality levels can be purchased. The variable of people's type of job has an effect on reducing the waste of fruit and vegetable products, and with improvement of quality of the job, amount of waste decreases. The relative price parameter of agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.1475) reduces waste formed on agricultural products by consumers. By increasing relative price of agricultural products (e.g. fruits and vegetables) to consumer by comparing the value of that product with other goods and other products; He realizes that the consumption of that product will create the least amount of waste. Parameter of distribution location of agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.1744) reduces waste formed on agricultural products by consumers. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in amount of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste.Conclusions The final results of research showed that individual and mixed marketing factors can play an effective role in reducing waste. Based on this, it can be said that in addition to importance of each link of the food supply chain; in consumer level, it is possible to contribute to reducing waste of agricultural products by using mixed marketing tools (including price, product, promotion and appropriate location of product). Therefore, consumer behavior studies are considered to be one of low-cost solutions to reduce amount of agricultural product waste according to individual-social characteristics and effective role of marketing mix.
Agricultural Economics
A. Sani Heidary; M. Daneshvar Kakhki; M. Sabouhi Sabouni; H. Mohammadi
Abstract
Introduction
Considering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. During the recent drought, rural households faced significant losses and hardships, ...
Read More
Introduction
Considering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. During the recent drought, rural households faced significant losses and hardships, underscoring their lack of preparedness for this natural hazard. Consequently, every society must take proactive measures to manage changes, mitigate threats, and respond effectively. A review of the country's drought management programs reveals that policymakers have consistently prioritized increased production, even amid the critical conditions of recent droughts. This focus on boosting production to meet the basic needs of a growing population has taken precedence over enhancing rural households' livelihoods and resilience. However, improving rural households' resilience in drought conditions hinges on prioritizing their capacity for adaptability and flexibility. Therefore, considering the sensitivity of the issue of resilience as a dominant approach effective on the dimensions of life and livelihood of rural households on the one hand and the lack of a comprehensive study on its underlying factors, on the other hand, this research seeks to answer two questions: First, what is the resilience level of rural households against drought? Second, what factors influence the resilience levels of rural households in drought conditions?
Materials and Methods
The statistical population of this study is 16,817 rural households in Zehak city, located in Sistan and Baluchistan province, which are strongly influenced by different climatic events such as drought, excessive heat, low rainfall and 120-day winds. A stratified random sampling method was used to determine the sample size. According to Cochran's formula, the sample size is estimated to be 376 households. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. To measure the resilience capacity of rural households, the theoretical framework of TANGO based on the estimation of the three capacities of absorption, adaptation and transfer was used through the factor analysis method, in which attitudinal and mental aspects of resilience are also taken into account. Finally, partial proportional odds model has been used to evaluate the influencing factors on the resilience capacity of rural households.
Results and Discussion
The results of the state of resilience capacity of rural households in the region indicated that the average value of their resilience capacity is 26.27, which shows the low level of resilience capacity in the region. Also, the households of the region are in a bad situation based on the absorption, adaptation and transmission capacities, and the households of the region have a stronger transmission capacity than the absorption and adaptation capacity against drought. The results of grouping the resilience capacity of households reveal that 32.45% are in the vulnerable group, 28.19% are in the relative resilience group, 22.61% are in the resilient group and 16.76% are in the high resilience group. The results show that more than 60% of households are at very low levels of resilience. Finally, the partial proportional odds model results demonstrated that the variables of education of the head of the household, skill level in agricultural activities, savings, household income, number of household contacts with agricultural extension, membership of the head of the household in social groups and access to microcredits have a positive effect and variables of the value of the loss of agricultural products and the number of livestock lost have a negative effect on the resilience capacity of rural households against drought.
Conclusion
According to the findings, policy-makers should prioritize strengthening the variables that determine the resilience capacity and its dimensions in the implementation of drought management programs so that households can absorb drought shocks without damaging their basic components. Policy-makers should also target specific categories of risks, dimensions of vulnerability and resilience in different time periods (before, during, and after shock) in order to choose comprehensive strategies to build and increase resilience. For instance, before a shock, better access to early detection of emerging climate risks could help farmers plan their cropping activities accordingly. Access to climate information allows for forward-looking adaptation that reduces the impact of shocks and increases resilience.