M.R. Lotfalipour; Y. Azarinfar; R. Mohammadzadeh
Abstract
Considering the importance of the agriculture sector in Iran, this study investigated factors affecting economic growth and development of the agriculture sector in Iran over the period of 1967-2009 for short term and long term, using ARDL model. The results showed that the ratios of public investment ...
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Considering the importance of the agriculture sector in Iran, this study investigated factors affecting economic growth and development of the agriculture sector in Iran over the period of 1967-2009 for short term and long term, using ARDL model. The results showed that the ratios of public investment expenditure to the GDP for short-term and long term have positive impacts on the economic growth. However, the dummy variables of revolution, war and the oil shock have negative effects on the economic growth. It is worth mentioning that in the short term the ratio of private investment expenditure to the GDP does not have a significant effect on the economic growth. Meanwhile, in the agricultural sector the ratio of private sector investment to the value added caused by the private sector has a positive effect on the agricultural growth. Furthermore, the ratio of the public sector investment to the value added, have positive effects on the agricultural growth. The employment rate, however, has a negative impact on the growth of the agriculture sector .Within a short-term, in the agricultural sector the ratio of private sector investment to the value added and the ratio of public sector investment to the value added, have positive. The dummy variable o war has a significant negative effect and the other variables have no significant effect. Error correction coefficient shows that the total effect of a government policy on the economic growth and the agricultural growth is observable in a short period of time. Ultimately, the economic growth in Iran is mainly nfluanced by the public setor nvestment the agricultural sector is mainly influenced by the private sector investment. A simultaneous development of public and private sector investment contributes to the total growth and the agricultural growth.
S. Gholipour; R. Mohammadzadeh; M. Bakhshoodeh; Y. Azarinfar; M. Rafati
Abstract
AbstractThe objective of this study is to investigate the long run and short run interactions between agricultural trade liberalization and shares of the two sectors of agriculture and services in the total export and import products and services of Iran during the years 1961-2008. To figure out interactions, ...
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AbstractThe objective of this study is to investigate the long run and short run interactions between agricultural trade liberalization and shares of the two sectors of agriculture and services in the total export and import products and services of Iran during the years 1961-2008. To figure out interactions, the vector correction model was used. The ratio of the sum of imports and exports to the GDP were considered as an index of trade openness. The Johansen test reveled that there are three long term relations among the variables of this study. Based on the findings, the higher the level of agricultural trade openness goes, the more the import shares of agriculture and service sectors in the long run are. Furthermore, agricultural trade liberalization has caused the exports of both agricultural products and services to decline in the short term.
M. Rafati; Y. Azarinfar; R. Mohammadzadeh
Abstract
AbstractThe aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and Price of sugar beet in Iran. For this purpose, Models applied to forecast are ARIMA, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, Artificial Neural Network and ARCH for period 1993-2008. Results ...
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AbstractThe aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and Price of sugar beet in Iran. For this purpose, Models applied to forecast are ARIMA, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing, Harmonic, Artificial Neural Network and ARCH for period 1993-2008. Results of Durbin-Watson tests, land, production and price of sugar beet series were found non stochastic and predictable. Based on the lowest forecasting error criterion, ARIMA is the best model for forecast production and price of sugar beet series. But in orther to forecast land of sugar beet, Neural Network model is the best. Hence, using the forecast method can affect on different policy about production via forecasting the fluctuation variables.Jel Classification: Q11 – D12 – C32 – C22
