Agricultural Economics
A. Fatahi Ardakani; F. Sakhi; Y. Bostan; M. Rezvani
Abstract
Introduction Various studies have shown that changes in rainfall due to climate change can affect the stability of food supply and in fact climate change by increasing the prevalence and severity of drought or flood, crop yields, food access and also effect food prices. According to the FAO, Iran's ...
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Introduction Various studies have shown that changes in rainfall due to climate change can affect the stability of food supply and in fact climate change by increasing the prevalence and severity of drought or flood, crop yields, food access and also effect food prices. According to the FAO, Iran's food security rank is 82 out of 125 countries in the world, and one of the reasons for this rank is the excessive waste of agricultural products in Iran. As a result, citing a wide range of previous studies, it has been documented that the impact of climate change on food security for countries that are more dependent on agriculture is largely negative and has significant effects. Therefore, in present study, citing theoretical foundations and foreign and domestic studies conducted in the field of food security especially in Iran, factors such as food prices, climate change, household income, exchange rate and targeted subsidy policy as factors affecting selected food security and their effect on food security of urban households in Iran were studied.Materials and Methods In this study, it was our goal to find the effects of food price variables, climate change, household income, exchange rate and targeted subsidy policy on food availability by estimating single equations of the food security index.In this study, based on the subject literature and available information, the self-explanatory model with wide intervals (ARDL) and the error correction model (ECM) introduced by boys and colleagues have been used to examine integration and estimate short-term and long-term relationships between variables. Data required for the present study, regarding the open market exchange rate and food prices (food and beverages) from official statistics based on the annual reports of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the necessary information to calculate the food security index of households and average household income from detailed results Expenditure and income of urban households of the Statistics Center of Iran, for the period 1398-1399 has been extracted.Results and Discussion The results showed that in the long run, a one percent increase in food prices reduces the food security index of Iranian urban households by 21 percent. As expected, the coefficient of variable climate change has a negative and significant effect on the food security index, and with its increase, the production of food and agricultural products decreases, and as a result, the food security index decreases. The growth rate of free market exchange rate with a negative sign at the level of one percent is significant. Since the agricultural industry in Iran is an industry highly dependent on imports. As a result, the increase in the exchange rate increases the price of agricultural products and affects food security. Annual household income has a positive and significant effect on household food security index. By increasing household income and assuming its appropriate distribution in society, it can be concluded that urban households are faced with increased purchasing power and ability to meet their food needs, and this variable has a positive effect on energy status and food security. The virtual variable of the years of implementation of the law on targeted subsidies is also significant at the level of 10% with a negative sign. The results show that in the long run, the implementation of this law has reduced the activity of farmers due to rising prices of agricultural inputs and energy carriers, this issue leads to a decrease in domestic food production and thus increases their prices and ultimately reduces food security of households. The estimated coefficient of ecm (-1) is equal to the negative value of 0.42 and is statistically significant at 1% probability level. The value of this coefficient indicates that each year 0.42% of the imbalance of one period of food security of urban households in Iran in the next period is adjusted.Conclusion Given the negative effect of food price index and exchange rate on food security of urban households, the application of appropriate exchange rate policies can be very effective in reducing inflation, especially food price inflation, which threatens the country's food security. With increasing investment, domestic food production is approaching self-sufficiency in this sector, in which case food prices will be subject to domestic supply and demand, and to some extent will be protected from exchange rate fluctuations and food imports, and this will create food security and prosperity. The economy in the country will help a lot. Given the negative effect of targeted subsidies, a review of the implementation of targeted subsidies policy to establish food security for households is proposed. To reduce the negative effects of climate change on food security, selective strategies must focus on addressing the adverse effects of climate change and food insecurity. Educating and strengthening public belief in climate change and water crisis, formulating long-term and short-term plans and policies for water resources management under climate change conditions with the participation of all relevant organizations and moving towards modern methods can be effective in reducing the effects of climate change.
R. Amirhajloo; A. Fatahi Ardakani; M. Fehresti; A. Neshat
Abstract
Introduction: The natural resources in any country are considered as the important infrastructures for economic development; this mainly applies to developing countries. Climate change and imbalance of rainfall over the year has made shortage of water a fundamental crisis in Esfahan Province; therefore, ...
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Introduction: The natural resources in any country are considered as the important infrastructures for economic development; this mainly applies to developing countries. Climate change and imbalance of rainfall over the year has made shortage of water a fundamental crisis in Esfahan Province; therefore, providing strategies and instructions which are in accordance with climate conditions of the country will significantly help to get out of the present critical situation. In this regard, dam-building projects have been one of the strategies which have been used to face these crises. Lack of attention to consequences of human interventions in environment and lack of considering these damages in considering pros and cons of man-made structures will cause reduction of natural resources and will increase the growing process of dam-building in the country. Prevention of damages to the environment can increase construction of dams in the country.
Materials and Methods: The purpose of this project is environmental analysis of one of the 10 dams of the country using comprehensive management program, so by estimating the damage and its cost, in addition to making managers aware, it is possible to announce maximum support of people for ecosystem management. Results in cost-profit analyses of developing Zayanderood Dam and its watering and also authorities' attention to more investment on the most important performance in view of the people of this province. This method can also be used to reform national accounts. In this method, first, created values of Zayanderood River flowing are considered and then each performance was evaluated. Improving environmental features of building a dam includes reducing public recreational areas (because the river does not flow), destroying some plant species around the river, Gavkhuni Swamp, animal species (such as fishes, water and migrant animals) and also destroying Gavkhuni Swamp (which in general because of no more flowing of the river Zayanderood and lack of watering of this swamp by Zayanderood river, it has been totally dry and destroyed) has been estimated. Similarly, choice experiment was employed for estimation of economic value of recreational areas, some plant species around the river, Gavkhuni Swamp, animal species by means of D Optimal design and distributions of 150 questionnaires in river ward zayanderood district during various seasons (2016) and the nested logit model.
Results and Discussion: The results of this research indicated that total value of recreational areas, some plant species around the river, Gavkhuni Swamp, and animal species were estimated 1176,610,852, and 566 thousand rials respectively. Among services damaged of zayanderood rangeland ecosystem, the maximum value belongs to recreational areas and of protection Gavkhuni Swamp. Ignoring and destruction can be the cause of not enough knowledge about the value of the local and natural ecosystem. Sometimes these effects may decrease the remedy of justification of collusion, and cannot evaluate composing dam and gains for local people. All the payment appetency of the family to improve all the properties, computed 320 thousand rials in this year. This research has prepared for estimating environmental effects of composing zayanderood dam and estimating effects of different sides of dam. Final results of the final orientation of the interest of families in paying each environmental feature of Zayanderood Dam determine the environmental damage of this dam and showed that mwtp (marginal willingness to pay) was positive for every recreational, vegetative species, animal species and Gavkhuni Swamp and this means that improving these features increases the average satisfaction obtained by using these dams. Regarding the results of this study, significant amounts of interest in payment for different features of the river showed the strong will of people to exit these conditions of the river.
Conclusions: Based on the results of this research, it can be argued that increasing the amount of attention to the various characteristics of the Zayandehrood River is due to the strong determination of people to get out of the current situation. Thus, one of the strategies for improving the environmental conditions of river in the current situation is the general participation of the people of the region. On the other hand, through the development of a coherent program to allocate water between Isfahan and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces, and also improving water use efficiency, especially in the agricultural sector which is a major consumer of water, the rate of decline in water can be controlled. Obviously, the present research is a preliminary study and a comprehensive assessment of the profit-to-cost ratio is necessary for providing more accurate information on the cost of constructing the dam(s).The finding indicated that the study area had high importance and value therefore it is necessary for accurate administration and planning to increase awareness of the people in the study area. Also the results showed that the studied case zone has a high importance so planning to decrease the remnant of environment is very necessary. User-friendly and comprehensive studies (especially environmental) are essential for increasing economic plans.
