S.H. Mosavi; S. Shahabi
Abstract
Introduction: Agriculture as one of main axis of development in Iran is heavily depend on irrigation water. on the other hand, water resources have been under heavy pressure due to rising demand with different uses. Hence, water resources management and optimal water allocation have become increasingly ...
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Introduction: Agriculture as one of main axis of development in Iran is heavily depend on irrigation water. on the other hand, water resources have been under heavy pressure due to rising demand with different uses. Hence, water resources management and optimal water allocation have become increasingly important Undoubtedly, one of the most important tools for optimal allocation of water resources, is the economic valuation of the long-term development strategy of the country. However, the main question is whether the various agricultural policies of the government are to achieve self-sufficiency in the production decisions, in line with the management of water resources?
Materials and Methods: To develop an analytical context for responding to above question, in this study, the effect of guaranteed purchase policy of wheat as one of the most supporting government policies, on the economic value of water resources in Orzoiyeh plain of Kerman province was studied. In order to achieve our goals, a dynamic mathematical programming model was used.
A number of key questions are involved with the modeling of dynamic situations. Fundamentally, one must ask whether an explicit multiple time period representation is necessary. If so, a number of other questions are relevant. First, the length of the total time period and the starting date must be determined. Second, the length of the time intervals explicitly represented within the total time period must be determined. Third, initial and final inventory conditions must be specified. Fourth, one must decide on activity life, i.e., when a particular activity is begun and how long it lasts. Fifth, the rate of time preference must be determined, i.e., one needs the discount rate at which future returns are considered when compared with current returns. Sixth and finally, one must decide whether to include uncertainty. The sections below present discussion on each of these topics.
Dynamic situations may not require multi-period dynamic models. Some dynamic questions must be explicitly modeled, allowing the solution to change over time. On the other hand, other questions may be adequately depicted by a steady state equilibrium model. In an equilibrium model the same decision is assumed to be repeatedly made in all time periods and thus a "representative" single period representation is used. Choice between these two modeling alternatives depends on a number of considerations. First, one must ask whether modeling adaptation is important. This depends upon whether the modeled entity is likely to experience growth, development/exhaustion of its resource base, and/or dynamic changes in model parameters. Second, one must be interested in the time path of adjustment and must not be content to solve a model for an optimal final state with the adjustments required to attain that state determined exogenously. Simultaneously, one must ask whether the data are present in sufficient detail to support a dynamic model. Finally, the multi-period dynamic analysis must be affordable or practical given the model size and data required. Dynamic equilibrium models may be used when one is willing to assume: a) the resource, technology and price data are constant; and b) a long-run "steady state" solution is acceptable. Disequilibrium models are used when these assumptions do not hold. Often reliance on equilibrium models is stimulated by the absence of data on parameter values over time. The decision on whether or not to assume equilibrium needs to be addressed carefully. Two common errors occur in the context of dynamic models are unnecessarily entering explicit dynamics into a model and improperly omitting them. Naturally, the proper dynamic assumption depends upon the problem. Treating dynamics as an equilibrium does not imply ignoring dynamics, but rather assumes repetitive decision making with equal initial and final inventory, a zero growth rate and a constant resource base. Most models do not contain either an infinite time horizon or conditions where all dynamic enterprises stop at the end of the horizon. Consequently, terminal conditions are important. Terminal conditions reflect the value of in-process inventory beyond the final period explicitly modeled and should either value or require a minimum level of inventory. When used, terminal values should reflect the net present value of the future income stream earned by ending the time horizon with a unit of the in-process inventory. Such conditions can insure that model activity will be reasonable up until the final year. The error created by ignoring terminal conditions can be illustrated through example.
Data required in the study for the crop year of 2011-2012, were collected by farmers in Orzoiyeh using questionnaires along with data of the Regional Water and Agriculture Organization of Kerman were collected.
Results and Discussion: results showed, that although the policy guaranteed purchase of wheat increased in agricultural gross profit ,it is not compatible with water resources management. Therefore, policymakers should enact policies to support the production, they considered the side effects on water resources in addition to encourage more production was also important to protect water resources. In order to reduce the exploitation of water resources, in line with the policy of supporting the production of water-price policies gradually, developing new technologies and water saving, promoting drought resistant varieties and the optimal irrigation strategies can be implemented.
Conclusion: Policy makers should enact policies that support the production, they considered the side effects on water resources in addition to encouraging more production was also important to protect water resources. In order to reduce the exploitation of water resources, in line with the policy of supporting the production of water-price policies gradually, developing new technologies and water saving, promotion drought resistant varieties and the optimal irrigation strategies can be implemented.
S. Khalilian; K. Shemshadi; S.A. Mortazavi; M. Ahmadian
Abstract
Agricultural sector will be most affected by climate change due to its extensive interaction with the environment. and as a result of changing production conditions, community welfare is changed. This study attempted at understanding the welfare effects of changes in climate parameters on the wheat ...
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Agricultural sector will be most affected by climate change due to its extensive interaction with the environment. and as a result of changing production conditions, community welfare is changed. This study attempted at understanding the welfare effects of changes in climate parameters on the wheat product. Therefore, the yield functions were initially estimated. Supply, demand and import functions were secondly estimated by Simultaneous equations system. Finally, to study the welfare effects resulting from changes in temperature and precipitation, a price-endogenous mathematical programming model in three different scenarios of climate was used. The results showed that in the case of reducing precipitation with increasing temperature, consumer surplus, producer surplus and therefore society surplus will be reduced . Loss of welfare for consumers are higher than what is for producers.
N. Mihankhah; A.H. Chizari; S. Khalilian
Abstract
Thisstudy estimated the optimal operation model of the multipurpose Latian dam with the purpose of optimal allocation of water. The reservoir is used to supply water requirements of agricultural lands of Varamin plain and Tehran's municipal water. For achieving the mentioned goal, allocation priority ...
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Thisstudy estimated the optimal operation model of the multipurpose Latian dam with the purpose of optimal allocation of water. The reservoir is used to supply water requirements of agricultural lands of Varamin plain and Tehran's municipal water. For achieving the mentioned goal, allocation priority among different water use competitors including irrigation, drinking water and hydropower was considered. With consideration to the uncertainty existence in estimating dam's water inflow, dam's operation problem was conducted based on two other techniques including time series model of SARIMA and fuzzy partitioning using Markov transition probability. Finally, using stochastic and deterministic dynamic programming, optimal operational policies for different scenarios (the beginning month, the volume of reservoir’s early water and last month's irrigation) were assessed. The study data is for the years 1976-2010. Results of simulation model with optimal release policy gained from two deterministic and stochastic models revealed that stochastic model based on fuzzy partitioning in compare with deterministic model provides better results for optimal water allocation among different water use competitors including agricultural lands in Varamin plain and drinking water of Tehran city.
E. Barikani; M. Ahmadian; S. Khalilian
Abstract
Abstract Surface water restriction and supply variation of these resources causes of over extraction of groundwater and unbalance between feed and extraction of groundwater in Iran. Agricultural sector as the biggest consumer of water resources has the most share of this unsustainability. This paper ...
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Abstract Surface water restriction and supply variation of these resources causes of over extraction of groundwater and unbalance between feed and extraction of groundwater in Iran. Agricultural sector as the biggest consumer of water resources has the most share of this unsustainability. This paper studies the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater in agronomy production in Qazvin basin, one of the most important areas of water crisis in Iran. For this, we used an intertemporal mathematical programming model to determine optimal cropping patterns of the crops for ten years period in Qazvin. For constructing the model, the duration of growth, water requirement of the crops, accessible surface water and exhaustible groundwater in Qazvin has been considered, and finally the cropping patterns was recommended. According to groundwater resources restrictions, it is suggested that cucumber and sugarcane is excluded, and cultivated area of maize and barley is increased in cropping pattern.
A. Yousefi; S. Khalilian; H. Balali
Abstract
AbstractWater is a vital resource for every biological and human phenomena. Nowadays, water management and conservation has a great importance not only in developing countries, but also in developed countries. In traditional economics, water is not taken into consideration as a factor of production in ...
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AbstractWater is a vital resource for every biological and human phenomena. Nowadays, water management and conservation has a great importance not only in developing countries, but also in developed countries. In traditional economics, water is not taken into consideration as a factor of production in the national accounts. Nevertheless in reality, water is the primary input of many goods and services directly and indirectly. Water quality and quantity issues are one of the main challenges facing Iranian development process. In Iran the structure of related organizations in water management is based on the separated policy responsibilities and functions. This study tries to analysis the role of water in Iranian economy by using computable general equilibrium modeling. Results show that the share of water sector in the economy has been undervalued, because of the problems in water national accounting and no market price for water. Given the importance of water resources in economic and social development, it is necessary to change the sectoral management to integrated water resources management (IWRM). Thus, integration of hydrological and economic information and providing the water satellite account system is the first step of IWRM.
H. Balali; S. Khalilian; M. Ahmadian
Abstract
In recent years, irregular exploitation of groundwater in the Hamedan-Bahar plain for the purposes of municipal drinking and agricultural irrigation has decreased the level of groundwater table in this area, threatening the life of groundwater aquifer. Some researchers believe that water demand management ...
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In recent years, irregular exploitation of groundwater in the Hamedan-Bahar plain for the purposes of municipal drinking and agricultural irrigation has decreased the level of groundwater table in this area, threatening the life of groundwater aquifer. Some researchers believe that water demand management practices including correlated instruments such as water pricing and related agricultural policies can play efficient roles in controlling water resource exploitation. The basic objective of the study is to analysis the impacts of irrigation water pricing on aquifer groundwater balance and exploitation by using of dynamic programming method. Analysing of the results indicate that by continuing of excitant condition in Hamedan-Bahar plain, the groundwater volume balance of aquifer will be near -171 m3 and water table decreasing of aquifer will be 4.28 meter at the end of whole planning horizon. Results also, show that by increasing irrigation water price , although economic revenue of agriculture sector in the study area decreases, but negative balance of aquifer groundwater will improve and be positive at the water price rate of 1500 Rial/m3.
JEL: C61, CO2, M 11
M. Aazamzadeh Shooroki; S. Khalilian
Abstract
Providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. Time ...
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Providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. Time series analysis was used for studying the impacts of monetary policies effect on food price index (FPI) in 1373-2006 in this investigation. For this purpose, money supply, exchange rate and interest rate variables were used for representation of monetary policy variables. ARDL method was used for estimation of this model. Results showed that was a long-run and positive linkage between monetary policy variables and food price index (FPI) that is expectable theoretically. Also government by using of monetary policies can control of food price index (FPI) and supporting of food security. Results obtained from error correction model showed that great speed was toward long-run equilibrium.
JEL Classification: e5, e52, q18
