A. Parhizkari; H. Taghizade Ranjbari; M. Shokat Fadaei; A. Mahmoodi
Abstract
Introduction: Sustainable management of water resources is one of the most important disturbances of current century and many scientists and investigators have already started to pay attention to it from last decade and early 21st century. Iran is in the semi-arid region and thus disproportionate distribution ...
Read More
Introduction: Sustainable management of water resources is one of the most important disturbances of current century and many scientists and investigators have already started to pay attention to it from last decade and early 21st century. Iran is in the semi-arid region and thus disproportionate distribution of water resources, so atmospheric precipitation and soil in the country, along with factors such as climate change, drought, environmental protection, ecological special situation, maintain the current pattern of population distribution provides various challenges. Industry and agriculture sectors create a regional balance tailored to the development needs on the one hand and focusing on distribution balanced and optimal management of water resources on the other hand. Transfer of water between river basins (watersheds, catchments), which is basically a hydrological category, different from the notion of transferring water over political boundaries, usually called transboundary water transfer. Interbasin water transfer usually implies large hydraulic engineering structures, conduits, canals, dams, pumping stations, and consequently shares the mistrust which meets large scale infrastructural solutions in water management, often criticized and opposed with the argument that one should first try to reduce water wastage, before embarking into costly investments. Inter-basin water transfer in fact is physical transfer of water from one basin to another basin. This transfer (Inter-basin water transfer) despite the elimination of shortcomings in the transmission destination areas, can the source of many changes in the cropping pattern, and farmers gross profit. Natural environment, migration, reduction of dependency to agriculture, small industries in the origin basins all requires assessments before the implementation of the water transfer projects. In Iran also water transfer from regions with high rainfall to arid regions has been performed by building the dam, canals, streams and aqueducts. Even today, many projects are implemented in Iran that water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain is one of the most important of these projects. According to reports of Regional Water Company of Qazvin province and the specifications of inter-basin water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain will be out from the farmers availability of Alamut region about 370 million cubic meters of irrigation water. This issue has the huge impacts on cropping pattern and farmers economic and livelihood condition in the origin basin (Alamout region). Therefore, in this study a hydrological-economic modeling system to analysis the effects of water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain on cropping pattern, farmers gross profit and economic value of irrigation water in the Alamut region (origin basin) was used.
Materials and Methods: Nowadays different methods to analysis of the issues related to the management of water resources and agriculture are used. One of the most important of these methods is mathematical programming that in recent years are in use to solve problems of water resource management sector and analysis of the agricultural policies. In this study a hydrological-economic modeling system consists of the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and product function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) to analysis of the effects of inter-basin water transfer on land use, farmers income situation and economic value of irrigation water in the origin basin (Alamout region) was used. The first time PMP model developed by Howitt (1995) to calibrate agricultural supply models have been used to link biophysical and economic information in an integrated biophysical and economic modelling framework and to assess impacts of agricultural policies and scenarios. These models are also accepted for analysing the impact of water resources management policies and scenarios. PMP model used in this paper is a three-step procedure which in it a non-linear (Quadratic) cost function is calibrated to observed values of inputs applied in agricultural production. In the basic formulation, the first step is a linear program providing marginal values that are used in the second step to estimate the parameters for a non-linear cost function and a production function. In the third step, the calibrated production and cost functions are used in a non-linear optimisation program. The solution to this non-linear program calibrates to observed values of production inputs and output. The required data in this study are related to the cropping year of 2013-2014 of Qazvin province.
Results and Discussion: The obtained results in this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain resulted in using 10 to 40 percent the supply of irrigation water leads to reduction of cropping pattern from 1/71 to 5/52 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 2/17 to 6/32 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. The above restriction after inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain leads to reduction of farmers gross profit from 2/58 to 8/21 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 3/18 to 9/82 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. In addition, the results of this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain affects the economic value of each cubic meter of irrigation water in the origin basin (Alamout region) and leads to increase it from 3/23 to 31/1 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 4/09 to 14/0 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. Moreover, the results of this study showed that farmers irrigation water demand function in Alamout region changes after inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain and farmers are compelled to buy every cubic meter of irrigation water at higher price compared to the current situation (before inter-basin transfer of water). Increasing of the rural people emigration, urbanization development, reducing tourism and disturbance in the ecosystem origin basin are the potential consequences of inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain.
Conclusion: Implementation of Inter-basin water transfer projects is responsive to resolve the water shortage problems in destination basins in short-time periods and the situation in the long time will be repeated as before. Therefore, it is recommended that instead of inter-basin water transfer project from Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain (despite the high cost for implementation of project and creating the detrimental problems in the origin basin) other appropriate methods in the field of water resources management (such as equipping of lands to modern irrigation systems, use of deficit irrigation techniques, modification of cropping pattern by products with low water requirement, increase the irrigation efficiency by repairing and equipping of water transfer channels) to solve the problem of water shortage in the destination basin (Qazvin plain) to be used. The results of this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain leads to reduction of cropping pattern and farmers’ gross profit. Therefore implementation of this project by considering of economic, social and environmental considerations in the origin basin (Alamout region) was recommended.
M.M. Mozaffari; A. Parhizkari; M. Hoseini Khodadadi; R. Parhizkari
Abstract
Introduction: Greenhouse gases absorb the radiation reflected from the earth surface which would otherwise be sent back into space. The composition and mixture of these gases make life on earth possible. In recent years, human activity has affected both the composition and mixture of the atmosphere, ...
Read More
Introduction: Greenhouse gases absorb the radiation reflected from the earth surface which would otherwise be sent back into space. The composition and mixture of these gases make life on earth possible. In recent years, human activity has affected both the composition and mixture of the atmosphere, modifying the climate. When climate changes, crop production is affected. There are many studies that consider the type and amount of production changes for particular crops, places and scenarios. Others attempt to expand knowledge about production changes and their impacts on economy and regional welfare. Climate change affects agriculture through direct and indirect affects i.e. temperature, and precipitation changes in the biological and physical environment. Restriction in water availability is one of the most dramatic consequences of climate change for the agricultural sector. Water availability is expected to be even more limited in the future. Scarcity of water is due to potential evapotranspiration increase. It is related to increase in air and earth surface temperatures. This phenomenon is important in low-precipitation seasons, and is even more severe in dry areas. The number of regions with loss of soil moisture is expected to increase, resulting in direct economic consequences on the production capacity. Considering the above decisions, the main objective of this paper is to integrate climate change into agricultural decision-making by using an Economic Modeling System to identify the impacts of climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural sector productions and available water resources in the down lands of the Taleghan Dam.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the effects of greenhouse gases on climate variables of temperature and precipitation under emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were evaluated using time series data from 1981- 2008 and General Circulation Models (GCM). Then Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was used to survey the impacts of climate variables on the selected products yield. Changes in agricultural production, farmer’s gross profit and economic value of irrigation water were analyzed and compared with the base year by the regression analysis results in the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model. This methodology that was developed by Howitt (1995) to calibrate agricultural supply models has been used to link biophysical and economic information in an integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework and to assess the impacts of agricultural policies and scenarios. These models are also accepted for analyzing the impact of climate change and water resources management policies and scenarios. The PMP model used in this paper is a three-step procedure in which a non-linear cost function is calibrated to observe values of inputs usage in agricultural production. In the basic formulation, the first step is a linear program providing marginal values that are used in the second step to estimate the parameters for a non-linear cost function and a production function. In the third step, the calibrated production and cost functions are used in a non-linear optimization program. The solution to this non-linear program calibrates to observed values of production inputs and output. The required data in this paper were collected from meteorological stations and the relevant agencies in the Qazvin province. Regression functions estimated in Eviews software package and the PMP model were solved in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software.
Results and Discussion: The results obtained in this paper showed that with emissions of greenhouse gases under the studied scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1), the average annual climate variables of temperature and precipitation changes from 1.64 to 2.28 °C and from20.92 to 1.1 mm, respectively. With these change, the yield of the most selected products decreases in the down lands of Taleghan Dam. Moreover, the obtained results showed that with emissions of greenhouse gases under the scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, the total acreage of the selected products changes from 2.18 to 4.09 percent. Total used water also decreases from 1.67 to 5.18 percent. Moreover, with emissions of greenhouse gas under the above scenarios total farmer’s gross profit decreases from 1.93 to 3.72 percent. However, the economic value of water increases from 4.27 to 13.6 percent in comparison with the base year.
Conclusion: In this study finally, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the vicinity of the down lands of the Taleghan Dam, it is recommended that the government should use punitive tools (green complications) for polluting units and serve the private sectors in forestry projects in the vicinity of the industrial towns.
Keywords: Agricultural productions, Climate change, Greenhouse Gases, Positive Mathematical Programming, Taleghan Dam
A. Parhizkari; M. Sabuhi; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani; H. Badi Barzin
Abstract
Considering that agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, presenting integrated management for water resources and formulating effective policies to increase water productivity in this sector is essential. Therefore, using economic modeling , this study simulated the farmers’ responses ...
Read More
Considering that agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, presenting integrated management for water resources and formulating effective policies to increase water productivity in this sector is essential. Therefore, using economic modeling , this study simulated the farmers’ responses to irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city. To achieve the study purpose, the State Wide Agricultural Production Model and Positive Mathematical Programming were applied. The required data for the years 2010-2011 was collected by completing questionnaires and collecting data sets from the relevant agencies of Zabol city in personal attendance. The results showed that imposing irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city leads to a reduction in the total cultivated area by 9/54 and 5/14 percent and a reduction in the water consumption by 6/23 and 7/01 percent, compared to the base year. Ultimately, irrigation water rationing policy, considering frugality of 18/9 million m3 of water, as the appropriate solution for the sustainability of water resources of Zabol city was proposed.
M. Sabuhi; A. Parhizkari
Abstract
In this study economic and welfare impacts of establishing irrigation water market in Qazvin province as well as potentiality of irrigation water transfer under stress irrigation conditions in the cities of Qazvin province were analyzed. To achieve the above objectives, Positive Mathematical Programming ...
Read More
In this study economic and welfare impacts of establishing irrigation water market in Qazvin province as well as potentiality of irrigation water transfer under stress irrigation conditions in the cities of Qazvin province were analyzed. To achieve the above objectives, Positive Mathematical Programming model and State Wide Agricultural Production functions were used. To achieve applicable results, the production function with a constant elasticity of substitution and cost function with an exponential form were included into the Positive Mathematical Programming model was imported. The study data for the year 2011-2012 was collected by asking the relevant offices in each city of Qazvin province. The proposed model was solved in six successive stages using the GAMS software. After solving the model, amount changes in the area of irrigated crops, farmer's gross profit and labor surplus under the two conditions of “existence of water market” and “lack of water market “at the regional level were calculated. The results showed that establishing irrigation water market increases total irrigated lands for 1/2 percent, total farmer’s gross profit for 1/86 percent and total labor force employed in agriculture for 1/8 percent in the province. Ultimately, considering the supportive and constructive role of regional water markets, it is recommended to provide necessary conditions and tools to establish an optimal use of such a mechanism associated with the type of market in Qazvin province.
A. Parhizkari; M. Sabuhi; S. Ziaee
Abstract
In the recent decades, due to water shortage problems, most countries have adopted their new policies from water supply management to water demand management . The main objective of the present study is a simulation of water market in order to determine the role of market in the balance between water ...
Read More
In the recent decades, due to water shortage problems, most countries have adopted their new policies from water supply management to water demand management . The main objective of the present study is a simulation of water market in order to determine the role of market in the balance between water supply and water demand and to analysis impacts of irrigation water sharing policies on the cropping patterns under conditions of water shortage in the Shahrood River Basin. For this purpose, positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and regional agricultural production functions were used. After the model design, irrigation water sharing policies in consistent with the legal deviations for each of the three different cases were simulated. Finally, deficit irrigations under the three scenarios 10, 20 and 30 percent were conducted. The data was adjusted based on the reference year of 2011. A part of the data was collectedby completing the questionnaires and interviews in person with farmers from the three regions western Alamut roudbar, Rajai Dasht and Eastern Alamut roudbar.The other part of data was collected by visiting the relevant offices in the city of Qazvin. To solve the proposed model, the software GAMS version of 23/9 was used. The results showed that application of irrigation water sharing policy is a suitable approach for the allocation of water resources of the Shahrood river basin. Furthermore, the results showed that establishming the water market and trading between the regions increases the economic benefits for farmers. The applied irrigation deficit from 10 to 30 percent increased the total area of irrigated crops from 9 to 37 percents.
