A. Bagheri; A.R. Nikooie; F. Khodadad Kashi; M. Shokat Fadaei
Abstract
Introduction: Irregular consumption of groundwater resources in the northern Mahyar plain that is located in Zayande Rood basin river has considerably decreased the water’s level of aquifer of this plain and groundwater resources as important resources of water supply for agriculture of this region ...
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Introduction: Irregular consumption of groundwater resources in the northern Mahyar plain that is located in Zayande Rood basin river has considerably decreased the water’s level of aquifer of this plain and groundwater resources as important resources of water supply for agriculture of this region have been faced with a negative balance. On this basis, Aquifer management in terms of preserving and sustainability of water resources is very important. The regional economic dependence on irrigated agriculture and the decline of the Mahyar Aquifer due to agricultural pumping have been much of the basis for the relatively recent governmental interest in developing policy alternatives for conserving water in the aquifer. Especially, for the area's economy is based on agricultural production. Although governments supportive payments to agricultural activities are fulfilled for the purpose of increasing of social benefits, it will cause some economic and environmental externalities. The objectives of this study were to analyze and evaluate the outcomes of water price increment as specified water conservation policy alternatives on groundwater consumption and cropping patterns on the aquifer of northern Mahyar plain in Isfahan province, using non-linear optimization models.
Materials and Methods: The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of irrigation water pricing scenarios on groundwater balance and the modification in farmers' cropping patterns in the northern Mahyar plain. The objective function in this study is to maximize net present value to land, management, groundwater, and irrigation systems over a twenty years planning horizon. For these purposes, A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model is considered in a dynamic framework and was calibrated to land use data for a base period of 2004-2005. The effects of the eight pricing scenarios of water in the range of zero to 1800 (IRR) on parameters over a period of twenty years were simulated by the model. PMP approach produces a constrained non-linear optimization model that mimics the land and water allocation decision facing producers each year The choice variables in the model are the acreages planted to each of the major crops and the water use by crop. This method is a useful approach in the determination of planning strategies and policies for groundwater systems. This method was intended to collect data and survey-based study of 250 questionnaires, documents, and use of views and experiences of experts.
Results and Discussion: The results derived from the model employed in this work showed that water pricing alone can potentially reduce considerably the consumption of aquifer groundwater, and adjust the trend of overexploitation of groundwater by irrigated agriculture. This effect is generated mainly as a result of water pricing providing incentives to the modification of farmers' cropping patterns through the substitution of crops with higher water requirements by others which use less water. Therefore, another modification in farmers' cropping patterns is substitution of crops with traditional irrigation by modern irrigation system. In fact, it has been analyzed that under certain structural and economic conditions, the effect of pricing policies can generate significant levels of water savings. The chief generalization is that the high water price scenarios significantly decreased the rate of decline in saturated thickness. Regardless of the price scheme, the saturated thickness will increase so long as the rate of recharge exceeds the irrigation rate. Therefore, it stands to reason that we should observe an increase in the saturated thickness than a base price scenario. A limitation of this proposed model regards the assumption of constant technology for both irrigation systems and pumping engines, which is significant in affecting the results.
Conclusions: Water pricing policies can affect water saving, at least in some situations, depending on water tariff rates, external conditions, and type of consumer behavior. Given the initial volume of groundwater in the northern Mahyar plain, it is imaginable that critical conditions will be reached in the near future by continuing the base scenario. A non-linear dynamic programming model in the framework of PMP techniques has been built to analyze the effects of water pricing scenarios on groundwater conservation of northern Mahyar plain. The Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) method proved to be very effective. As seen in the data section there was not a plethora of information (data) on this subject. Therefore, it was important that the method chosen for this study could use a minimal amount of data while still maintaining accuracy. The PMP method was able to take the minimal data, calibrate to it, and then effectively reproduce the observed results. Additionally, the production function was able to be incorporated into this process seamlessly while maintaining accuracy. The result shows that under the high price scenarios, water application per acre decreased significantly during the early years of the simulated period. This suggests that high water prices have a significant effect on the rate of increment of the northern Mahyar aquifer stability. This is one of the first times that the PMP method has been incorporated into an applied groundwater management problem such as this, while also incorporating hydrological and agronomic information over time.
A. Parhizkari; H. Taghizade Ranjbari; M. Shokat Fadaei; A. Mahmoodi
Abstract
Introduction: Sustainable management of water resources is one of the most important disturbances of current century and many scientists and investigators have already started to pay attention to it from last decade and early 21st century. Iran is in the semi-arid region and thus disproportionate distribution ...
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Introduction: Sustainable management of water resources is one of the most important disturbances of current century and many scientists and investigators have already started to pay attention to it from last decade and early 21st century. Iran is in the semi-arid region and thus disproportionate distribution of water resources, so atmospheric precipitation and soil in the country, along with factors such as climate change, drought, environmental protection, ecological special situation, maintain the current pattern of population distribution provides various challenges. Industry and agriculture sectors create a regional balance tailored to the development needs on the one hand and focusing on distribution balanced and optimal management of water resources on the other hand. Transfer of water between river basins (watersheds, catchments), which is basically a hydrological category, different from the notion of transferring water over political boundaries, usually called transboundary water transfer. Interbasin water transfer usually implies large hydraulic engineering structures, conduits, canals, dams, pumping stations, and consequently shares the mistrust which meets large scale infrastructural solutions in water management, often criticized and opposed with the argument that one should first try to reduce water wastage, before embarking into costly investments. Inter-basin water transfer in fact is physical transfer of water from one basin to another basin. This transfer (Inter-basin water transfer) despite the elimination of shortcomings in the transmission destination areas, can the source of many changes in the cropping pattern, and farmers gross profit. Natural environment, migration, reduction of dependency to agriculture, small industries in the origin basins all requires assessments before the implementation of the water transfer projects. In Iran also water transfer from regions with high rainfall to arid regions has been performed by building the dam, canals, streams and aqueducts. Even today, many projects are implemented in Iran that water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain is one of the most important of these projects. According to reports of Regional Water Company of Qazvin province and the specifications of inter-basin water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain will be out from the farmers availability of Alamut region about 370 million cubic meters of irrigation water. This issue has the huge impacts on cropping pattern and farmers economic and livelihood condition in the origin basin (Alamout region). Therefore, in this study a hydrological-economic modeling system to analysis the effects of water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain on cropping pattern, farmers gross profit and economic value of irrigation water in the Alamut region (origin basin) was used.
Materials and Methods: Nowadays different methods to analysis of the issues related to the management of water resources and agriculture are used. One of the most important of these methods is mathematical programming that in recent years are in use to solve problems of water resource management sector and analysis of the agricultural policies. In this study a hydrological-economic modeling system consists of the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and product function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) to analysis of the effects of inter-basin water transfer on land use, farmers income situation and economic value of irrigation water in the origin basin (Alamout region) was used. The first time PMP model developed by Howitt (1995) to calibrate agricultural supply models have been used to link biophysical and economic information in an integrated biophysical and economic modelling framework and to assess impacts of agricultural policies and scenarios. These models are also accepted for analysing the impact of water resources management policies and scenarios. PMP model used in this paper is a three-step procedure which in it a non-linear (Quadratic) cost function is calibrated to observed values of inputs applied in agricultural production. In the basic formulation, the first step is a linear program providing marginal values that are used in the second step to estimate the parameters for a non-linear cost function and a production function. In the third step, the calibrated production and cost functions are used in a non-linear optimisation program. The solution to this non-linear program calibrates to observed values of production inputs and output. The required data in this study are related to the cropping year of 2013-2014 of Qazvin province.
Results and Discussion: The obtained results in this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain resulted in using 10 to 40 percent the supply of irrigation water leads to reduction of cropping pattern from 1/71 to 5/52 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 2/17 to 6/32 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. The above restriction after inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain leads to reduction of farmers gross profit from 2/58 to 8/21 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 3/18 to 9/82 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. In addition, the results of this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain affects the economic value of each cubic meter of irrigation water in the origin basin (Alamout region) and leads to increase it from 3/23 to 31/1 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 4/09 to 14/0 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. Moreover, the results of this study showed that farmers irrigation water demand function in Alamout region changes after inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain and farmers are compelled to buy every cubic meter of irrigation water at higher price compared to the current situation (before inter-basin transfer of water). Increasing of the rural people emigration, urbanization development, reducing tourism and disturbance in the ecosystem origin basin are the potential consequences of inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain.
Conclusion: Implementation of Inter-basin water transfer projects is responsive to resolve the water shortage problems in destination basins in short-time periods and the situation in the long time will be repeated as before. Therefore, it is recommended that instead of inter-basin water transfer project from Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain (despite the high cost for implementation of project and creating the detrimental problems in the origin basin) other appropriate methods in the field of water resources management (such as equipping of lands to modern irrigation systems, use of deficit irrigation techniques, modification of cropping pattern by products with low water requirement, increase the irrigation efficiency by repairing and equipping of water transfer channels) to solve the problem of water shortage in the destination basin (Qazvin plain) to be used. The results of this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain leads to reduction of cropping pattern and farmers’ gross profit. Therefore implementation of this project by considering of economic, social and environmental considerations in the origin basin (Alamout region) was recommended.
M. Khaledi; M. Shokat Fadaei; F. Nekoofar
Abstract
Abstract The main aim of the paper is to determine the marketing efficiency of poultry industry in Karaj. In this research the marketing margin and the marketing efficiency of poultry market in different level of the market in Karaj was calculated. The results showed that slaughter houses gain the main ...
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Abstract The main aim of the paper is to determine the marketing efficiency of poultry industry in Karaj. In this research the marketing margin and the marketing efficiency of poultry market in different level of the market in Karaj was calculated. The results showed that slaughter houses gain the main part of marketing margin and marking profit. The share of slaughter house was more that 50 percent. The results also indicated that the share of producers from marketing profit was less than 10 percent. Whereas the ratio of producer price to consumer price was 68 percent. This implies that the production cost is relatively high. Market efficiency was also computed and it was less than one. This means that chicken meat market is operating inefficiently. It was suggested that some policy issues should be taken to improve market efficiency.
