M. Jalerajabi; R. Moghaddasi
Abstract
Due to the importance of the import management, this study applies generalized ARDL approach to estimate MIDAS regression for wheat import value and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those competed by the regression with adjusted data model. Mixed frequency sampling models aim to extract information ...
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Due to the importance of the import management, this study applies generalized ARDL approach to estimate MIDAS regression for wheat import value and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those competed by the regression with adjusted data model. Mixed frequency sampling models aim to extract information with high frequency indicators so that independent variables with lower frequencies are modeled and foorcasted. Due to a more precise identification of the relationships among the variables, more accurate prediction is expected. Based on the results of both estimated regression with adjusted frequency models and MIDAS for the years 1978-2003 as a training period, wheat import value with internal products and exchange rate was positively related, while the relative price variable had an adverse relation with the Iran's wheat import value. Based on the results from the conventional statistics such as RMSE, MAD, MAPE and the statistical significance, MIDAS models using data sets of annual wheat import value, internal products, relative price and seasonal exchange rate significantly improves prediction of annual wheat import value for the years2004-2008 as a testing period. Hence, it is recommended that applying prediction approaches with mixed data improves modeling and prediction of agricultural import value, especially for strategic import products.
M. Jalerajabi; R. Moghaddasi
Abstract
This study concerns with calculation of Iran's agricultural bilateral trade costs and major influential factors in Iran's Bilateral Trade with Developed and Developing countries. The main findings revealed that over the period 1995-2010 weighted average of agricultural trade cost with developing partners ...
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This study concerns with calculation of Iran's agricultural bilateral trade costs and major influential factors in Iran's Bilateral Trade with Developed and Developing countries. The main findings revealed that over the period 1995-2010 weighted average of agricultural trade cost with developing partners has declined by 44, and with developed partners has increased by 22 percent. This reduction, however, was greater for UAE and Brazil from developing countries and for Switzerland and Austria from developed countries. Based on the estimated regression, agricultural bilateral trade costs is positively related to distance, bilateral tariff rate and lag of agricultural bilateral trade costs, while island and adjacency variables have an opposite effect on Iran's agricultural bilateral trade costs. Considering the results, it is suggested that agricultural products should be destined based on trade costs, in order to increase the comparative power of export products.
