A. Nikoukar; M. Hosseinzadeh; Z. Nematollahi
Abstract
Introduction: The first step in any planning is recognition of the actual condition and the main tool to know the present situation and move towards to the ideal conditions is the access to data and information. This study, tried to study fish consumption status and identify the factors affecting it ...
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Introduction: The first step in any planning is recognition of the actual condition and the main tool to know the present situation and move towards to the ideal conditions is the access to data and information. This study, tried to study fish consumption status and identify the factors affecting it in Sari and Mashhad Cities.
Materials and Methods: Data was collected through interviews and questionnaire and were analyzed using ordered Logit model. Often dependent variables are ordinal, but are not continuous in the sense that the metric used to code the variables is substantively meaningful. A widely used approach to estimating models of this type is an ordered response model, which almost allows employing the Logistic link function. This model is thus often referred to as the "ordered Logit" model. The central idea is that there is a latent continuous metric underlying the ordinal responses observed by the analyst. Thresholds divides the real line into a series of regions corresponding to the various ordinal categories. The latent continuous variable, y* is a linear combination of some predictors, x, plus a disturbance term that has a standard Logistic distribution. Similar to the models for binary data, we are concerned with how changes in the predictors translate into the probability of observing a particular ordinal outcome. In this model, the dependent variable is divided to different classes. Coefficients cannot be interpreted directly; so for evaluating the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable, marginal effect or marginal probability is calculated. independent variables are: Family size, Age, Price of fish, Price of meat, Price of chicken, Education, The number of people under 10 years, The number of people with specific diseases, The number of elderly, Income level, Job, Factor related to taste, Factors related to the access and ease of preparation of fish, Factors related to preparation and cook and Factors related to aquatic health.
Results and Discussion: Households, based on the frequency of buying aquatic (fish, shrimp and canned), are divided into four groups: households with no annual, monthly and weekly consumption of aquatic. So we ran order Logit model for these groups. Pseudo R2 Shows that the order Logit model has a high level of goodness of fit, and the independent variables used in the models explain 12% and 14% variations in the probability of Mashhadian and Saravian households at different levels of consumption. The value of the χ2 statistic in Wald test also indicates the significance of the whole regression. The estimated results of ordered Logit model showed that variables of the number of children under 10 years, the number of people with specific diseases, the number of elderly and income level have the positive impact on fish consumption in Sari. Variables of residential area and the number of children under 10 years have a positive impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. In other words, increasing these variables, increases the probability of fish consumption in these cities. Age has the negative impact on fish consumption in Sari. Also, factors associated with taste, factors related to lack of knowledge of preparation and cooking aquatic and factors related to the health of aquatics have a negative impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. This means that increasing these variables, puts households at lower levels of fish consumption. In such a way, the habitat of coastal towns towards non-coastal cities, reduces the probability of households to be in the low-level of aquatic consumption. This is due to the lower price of fish in coastal cities and access to fresh fish in these cities. The likelihood of Mashhadian households in the low-levels (no use) of aquatic consumption was reduced by 0.308 and increases the probability of households in annual, monthly and weekly of aquatic consumption, with increase in the residential area level by 0.091, 0.192 and 0.025 respectively. The likelihood of Sarian households in high- level of aquatic consumption (weekly and monthly) was increase by 0.120 and 0.395, with increase in the number of people with specific diseases, respectively. Increasing the income level of households also reduces the probability of Sarian households in the low-level (no use) of aquatic consumption group by about 0.0000006.
Conclusions: This study aimed to identify the factors affecting fish consumption in Sari and Mashhad Cities. For this purpose, data was collected through interviews and questionnaire and were analyzed using ordered Logit model. The estimated results of ordered Logit model showed that variables of the number of children under 10 years, the number of people with specific diseases, the number of elderly and income level have a positive impact on fish consumption in Sari. However, variables of residential area and the number of children under 10 years have a positive impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. In other words, increasing these variables, increases the probability of fish consumption in these cities. But factors associated with taste, factors related to lack of knowledge of preparation and cooking aquatic and factors related to the health of aquatics have the negative impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. Based on the results, holding the training classes of fish cooking for enthusiasts and creation of aquatics Markets to supply of aquatic have been proposed.
S.A. Hosseini Yekani; Z. Nematollahi; M. Hosseinzadeh
Abstract
Introduction: Measuring changes in economic welfare have been known as one of the practical economic issues. So that, this study aimed to calculate the welfare changes resulting from the change in the price of rice in Mazandaran province and is the first study that done using the food groups’ details ...
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Introduction: Measuring changes in economic welfare have been known as one of the practical economic issues. So that, this study aimed to calculate the welfare changes resulting from the change in the price of rice in Mazandaran province and is the first study that done using the food groups’ details and household’s data for estimates demand functionin the country. For this purpose, welfare microeconomic theory and compensating variation (CV) criteria and household income and expenditure data of Mazandaran province in 2014 wereused.
Materials and Methods: Compensating variation represents the net income that the household must be given to restore themto the utility level they were at before the price change. It is negative after a price increasebecause it is expressed as a central authority expenditure to restore the household to thepre-price change utility level. Estimation of compensating variation needtheestimation of households demand system. In this paper, the parameters of the demand system are estimated by applying nonlinear regression to the system of eight share equations. Parameter estimates provided a clearer understanding of household food consumption behavior in 2014, summarized through income and price elasticity. Parameterestimates provide a theoretically consistent model of household food demand that can be usedto evaluate the welfare implications of food price increases.
Results and Discussion: Estimates of income elasticity of demand for urban and rural households are presented in Table 4. The income elasticity revealsthat none of the goods are inferior, while the rice and meat are a luxury for urban households. Other groups such as cereals, dairy, oils and fats, fruits and vegetables, other foods and beverages are also essential commodities for urban households. Rice, meat and fruit and vegetable are the luxury goods for rural households, too. The income elasticity of fruits and vegetables, and other foods are close toone for urban households, demonstrating that welfare analysis of price changes need to account for shifts in demandcaused by the income effect of the changes. The elasticityindicate that the income effectcould be large for these commodity groups. Further evidence about these effects will be provided by the compensatedprice elasticity.Compensated own price elasticity, which measure pure substitution effects, are reportedinTable 5 for urban households and Table 6 for rural households. The elasticity of demand for a beverage is large for all householdsand the elasticity of demand forrice is small for all households. These results indicate that households reduce beverage consumption significantly more than rice consumption in response to price increases. Next, consider a 25, 50 and 198 percent increase in the rice price. This price change causes an increase in household expenditure for both urban and rural households by compensating variation. Increasing in households expenditure for rural households has been greater than urban households. According to the results, urban households have seen 0.38 percent increase in their expenditure by 25 percent increase in rice price. 50 and 198 percent Rice price increasing, increase 1.13 and 19.98 percent of urban expenditure accordingly. Rural expenditure increased 1.31, 3.63 and 52.57 percent by increasing 25, 50 and 198 percent in rice price accordingly. Moreover, the comparison between reductions in household welfare in different income groups has shown that household welfare has declined less when levels of income increased.
Conclusion: This study aimed to calculate the welfare changes resulting from the change in the price of rice in Mazandaran province. For this purpose, welfare microeconomic theory and compensating variation (CV) criteria and household income and expenditure data of Mazandaran province in 2014 wereused. Based on the results, with rising rice prices, household welfare of Mazandaran province has fallen. The welfare of rural households has fallen more than the welfare of urban households. The comparison between reductions in household welfare in different income groups has shown that household welfare has declined less when levels of income increased. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the household welfare of provinces when the rice price rises and support policies must be adopted.
Z. Nematollahi; S.M. Mojaverian; M. Hosseinzadeh
Abstract
Introduction: Attention to rural development than urban development in the third world not because of the majority of the population in rural areas, but also because it is the final solution to the problem of urban unemployment and decreasing the population density metropolis, development and improvement ...
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Introduction: Attention to rural development than urban development in the third world not because of the majority of the population in rural areas, but also because it is the final solution to the problem of urban unemployment and decreasing the population density metropolis, development and improvement of the rural environment. Rural tourism potentially can be considered as fundamental approaches in sustainable rural development. This study, using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is trying to prioritize the factors that affecting rural tourism in Mazandaran province whit scientific and practical point of view, then the best rural areas of the province identify and rank according to experts.
Materials and Methods: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), introduced by Thomas Saaty (1980), is an effective tool for dealing with complex decision making and may aid the decision maker to set priorities and make the best decision. By reducing complex decisions to a series of pairwise comparisons, and then synthesizing the results, the AHP helps to capture both subjective and objective aspects of a decision. In addition, the AHP incorporates a useful technique for checking the consistency of the decision maker’s evaluations, thus reducing the bias in the decision-making process. The AHP can be implemented in three simple consecutive steps: 1) Computing the vector of criteria weights. 2) Computing the matrix of option scores. 3) Ranking the options.
Results and Discussion: The results and findings of this study showed that criteria related to infrastructure have the highest priority in terms of tourists and then cultural and social attractions, standards of facilities and tourist services and religious, historical and natural attractions is ranked. Incompatibility coefficient obtains less than 0.1, which indicates consistency in judgments. The results of prioritizing the following criteria shown; According to the provincial rural tourism security was the highest priority, weighing 0.077. The sanitary facilities of the path to the village, cleaning, environment and facilities, easy access road, holding traditional ceremonies and Accommodation in rural homes are ranked by the weight of 0.075, 0.066, 0.063, 0.063 and 0.062 in the second to sixth. The least important in rural tourism was the density of tourists and historical sites, by weight 0.022 and 0.037 respectively.
Then, to rank the target villages of rural tourism in the province, villages divided in the three villages, according to experts of the Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts, including East villages, Galoogah, Behshahr, Nekah, Miandorood and Sari, central villages, including Savadkuh, Ghaemshahr, Jouibar, Babol, Babolsar, Fereydunkenar, Mahmudabad, Amol and Nour and villages in the West, including, Ramsar, Tonekabon, Abasabad, Chalus and Noshahr. Then, priorities that the region was carried out by rural tourism are used to compare and rank the three villages. For this purpose, the opinions of 11 experts and scholars of Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism has been used. Thus, options (the target villages) have been compared and ranked according to expert opinions to that rural tourism prioritizes. Finally, the final weight and options priority have been made based on expert opinion and according to the priorities set by tourists. Based on expert opinion and according to the priorities set by the tourists, the highest priority to tourism was in west of the province and villages in Central and eastern provinces are the next priorities respectively.
Conclusion: Rural tourism potentially can be considered as fundamental approaches in sustainable rural development. This study, using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is trying to prioritize the factors that affecting rural tourism in Mazandaran province. The results and findings of this study showed that criteria related to infrastructure have the highest priority in terms of tourists and then cultural and social attractions, standards of facilities and tourist services and religious, historical and natural attractions ranked. Based on expert opinion and according to the priorities set by the tourists, the highest priority to tourism was in west of the province and villages in Central and Eastern provinces respectively are the next priorities. Thus, according to the results, equipping tourist attractions to levels of health services, providing facilities and financial resources to equip and organize existing settlements is suggested.
Z. Nematollahi; S.A. Hosseini Yekani; M. Hosseinzadeh
Abstract
Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers.
Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized ...
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Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers.
Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1) direct elicitation of utility functions, (2) experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3): Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3): inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956). Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous.
Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an absolute risk aversion of 0.00003, which is lower than for the subsample existing of farmers in the 'non-wealthy' group. This assumption that the absolute risk aversion is a decreasing function of wealth is in accordance with Arrow (1970) expectation. The method used was to calculate the proportional risk premium (PRP) representing the proportion of the expected payoff of a risky prospect that the farmers would be willing to pay to trade away all the risk for a certain thing, proposed by Hardaker (2000). Our finding showed that the higher risk averse the farmer was, the higher will the PRP would be. Farmers risk premium was 303113 IRR. It should be mentioned that the 'non-wealthy' group had a larger PRP than the 'wealthy' group. Following Freund (1956), if the net revenue for each activity is normally distributed and assuming a negative exponential utility function, we can utilize the absolute risk aversion coefficient to obtain relative risk aversion coefficient (Rr). Based on this study, Rr vary from 0.31 to 8.49 and the relative coefficient of risk aversion in our sample was 4.79. Our results showed that the majority of farmers in the study area are highly risk averse (Anderson and Dillon, 1992). The relationships between the relative risk aversion coefficients of farmers and their socio-economic characteristics were also evaluated in this study. Results showed that the age had a positive impact, level of wealth and diversity had negative impacts on farmers' risk aversion coefficient.
Conclusion: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayen farmers. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. The model used in this analysis found the optimal farm plan given a planning horizon of 1 year. Thus, the historical mean GM vector and variance-covariance matrix were assumed to represent farmers beliefs. Our results showed that the majority of farmers in the study area are highly risk averse. In addition the more risk averse the farmer was, the higher will the PRP would be. Farmers risk premium was 303113 IRR. Our finding showed that the age had a positive impact, level of wealth and diversity had negative impacts on farmers risk aversion coefficient. According to the results, insurance development and investment in agricultural commodities exchange was suggested to reduce the coefficient of risk aversion.
A. Dourandish; A. Nikoukar; M. Hosseinzadeh; A. Lavshabi
Abstract
Population growth and the needs for protein and dairy products has urged policy makers to pay attention to efficiency policies in the livestock sector. The objective of this study is to survey the factors affecting the income of milk production, to calculate cattlemen’s technical efficiency and to ...
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Population growth and the needs for protein and dairy products has urged policy makers to pay attention to efficiency policies in the livestock sector. The objective of this study is to survey the factors affecting the income of milk production, to calculate cattlemen’s technical efficiency and to determine the factors affecting the technical efficiency in the Northern Khorasan province. The required data for this study is a balanced panel data and has been obtained by using cluster sampling method and questionnaire completion from 160 dairy farms of this province between the years 2009 and 2012. The Cobb - Douglas function was used to analyze the factors affecting the income of milk production. The Stochastic production frontiers (SPF) and stochastic distance frontiers (SDF) ,with and without inclusion of inefficiency effects, were used to measure the technical efficiency and to determine the factors affecting technical efficiency. The stochastic production frontiers (SPF) ,with and without the inclusion of inefficiency effects, estimated the average technical efficiency 0/96 and 0/93. In addition, the experience, targeting subsidies and main job of cattleman have a significant positive impact on the technical efficiency. The results showed that the numbers of cattle, land, and investment in equipments, labor and feed costs have significant positive impact on the income of milk production. The stochastic distance frontiers (SDF) ,with and without the inclusion of inefficiency effects, estimated the average technical efficiency 0/91 and 0/94, respectively. The experience, targeting subsidies and main job of cattleman have a significant positive impact on the technical efficiency. The numbers of cattle, land, and investment in equipment, labor, feed and veterinary costs have significant positive impact on the income of the milk production. According to the results, high educations and extension classes, farm industrialization, increasing number of cattle, farm specialization and providing a better feed and hygienic conditions are recommended for more efficiency and increasing production in the dairy farms of the Northern Khorasan province.
M. Hosseinzadeh; M.R. Kohansal; M. Ghorbani
Abstract
The purpose of this study, determining the optimal cultivation pattern by using Interval mathematical programming approach among the farmers of Esfarayen County before and after targeting the subsidies. For this purpose, Farmers based on water resources classified in three group of using the river water, ...
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The purpose of this study, determining the optimal cultivation pattern by using Interval mathematical programming approach among the farmers of Esfarayen County before and after targeting the subsidies. For this purpose, Farmers based on water resources classified in three group of using the river water, deep wells water and rainfed cultivation. The required data for this study has been obtained by using simple random sampling method and questionnaire completion from 207 farmers of this three category. The results of determining the optimal cultivation pattern in three categories indicated that the optimal cultivation pattern according to existing constraints in group of using river water is Onion cultivation before and after targeting the subsidies. In group of using deep wells water, optimal cultivation pattern before targeting the subsidies is cultivation of sorghum, irrigated alfalfa, sunflower and seed watermelon and after targeting the subsidies is cultivation of sorghum, irrigated alfalfa, cumin and seed watermelon. Optimal cultivation pattern before targeting the subsidies for rainfed cultivation is cultivation of Chickpea and Lentil. Also optimal cultivation pattern after targeting the subsidies in this group for α = 0 is cultivation of Chickpea, Lentil and Barley and for other value of α is cultivation of Chickpea and Lentil.
M. Hosseinzadeh; M. Ghorbani
Abstract
AbstractUnbalance using of chemical fertilizers cause decline the soil quality and fertility, environmental pollution and specially soil and water resources pollution. The use of animal manure is a replacement to chemical fertilizers. Therefore, recognizing of demographic, technical-extensional and agronomic ...
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AbstractUnbalance using of chemical fertilizers cause decline the soil quality and fertility, environmental pollution and specially soil and water resources pollution. The use of animal manure is a replacement to chemical fertilizers. Therefore, recognizing of demographic, technical-extensional and agronomic affect on farmer's decision making process to use of animal manure will have important role in policy making and planning system in this field. This paper used Tobit model and a cross sectional data of 80 farmer of North Khorasan province in 2009 to study of farmers, behavior to use animal manure. Result showed that distance between ranching and farm and Leguminous cultivation have negative effect and existence of educated person in family, farmers, education and knowledge of long run risks of chemical fertilizers have positive effect on use of animal manure. With regard to results, transferring of subsidies from chemical to organic fertilizers, education and information transferring about long run risks of chemical fertilizers to farmers and targeting of educated persons of families in extensional train related to animal manure to conduct of farmers to sustainable agriculture and conservation of environment suggested.
