Agricultural Economics
M. Bahrami Nasab; A. Firoozzare; A. Dourandish; M. Sabouhi; M. Ghorbani
Abstract
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture in arid regions which its over-extraction has led to significant challenges of declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management by employing an inclusive group decision-making approach ...
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Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture in arid regions which its over-extraction has led to significant challenges of declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management by employing an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, with a focus on farmers. Overlooking the participation of farmers in the decision-making approach led to ineffective policies. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, the research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safi-Abad region of North Khorasan, Iran. Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use, revealing two primary strategies: (i) transitioning to low water-demand crops; and (ii) adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings highlighted the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, ensuring responsible resource use, and securing long-term viability. This study served as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods integrating qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.
Agricultural Economics
S. Kalhori; L. Abolhasani; M. Sabouhi; M. Sarkhosh
Abstract
IntroductionGiven the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, ...
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IntroductionGiven the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, particularly PM2.5 pollution. This problem has evolved into one of the most complex and serious dilemmas affecting the lives of people worldwide. Exposure to high levels of air pollution has negative health implications. The present study aims to measure the willingness to pay of Mashhad city residents for the improvement of PM2.5 pollution and identify the factors influencing this willingness to pay. Materials and MethodsThis study used contingent valuation and the multiple-bound discrete choice model to calculate individuals' willingness to pay. The research focused on the certainty level of "definitely yes" and generated 13 different proposals ranging from 10,000 Toman to 200,000 Toman. The ordered logit regression model was employed to analyze the factors influencing the willingness of Mashhad citizens to pay for air quality improvement. The study collected 343 questionnaires from Mashhad city residents, considering variables such as education level, age, gender, marital status, family size, presence of children, chronic respiratory diseases and individuals' income. The dependent variable was the public's willingness to pay for improving air quality regarding PM2.5. Results and DiscussionThe study found that a significant portion of respondents were willing to pay for air quality improvement. About 22.45% were willing to pay less than 10,000 Toman, 60.06% were willing to pay between 45,000 and 58,000 Toman, 5.83% were willing to pay between 95,000 and 120,000 Toman, and 11.66% were willing to pay between 155,000 and 200,000 Toman. The average willingness to pay for PM2.5 pollutant improvement in Mashhad was estimated to be 55,488 Toman. Education, age, respiratory diseases, income, and family size were found to affect willingness to pay. Conclusion Improving air quality and reducing pollution requires costly efforts and collaboration from society. This research examines individuals' willingness to financially contribute to air quality enhancement. Factors influencing their willingness to pay are also studied. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the government and municipal authorities impose taxes and levies on polluting sectors, considering the calculated value of air pollution and its sources. Educational programs tailored to diverse educational backgrounds, along with technology and social media, can raise environmental awareness among youth. Developing cost-effective public transportation systems and providing discounts for low-income individuals can also help reduce pollution. Financial programs and incentives for cleaner resources are another solution for improving air quality.
Agricultural Economics
A.R. Sani Heidary; M. Daneshvar Kakhki; M. Sabouhi; H. Mohammadi
Abstract
IntroductionConsidering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. During the recent drought, rural households faced significant losses and hardships, underscoring ...
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IntroductionConsidering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. During the recent drought, rural households faced significant losses and hardships, underscoring their lack of preparedness for this natural hazard. Consequently, every society must take proactive measures to manage changes, mitigate threats, and respond effectively. A review of the country's drought management programs reveals that policymakers have consistently prioritized increased production, even amid the critical conditions of recent droughts. This focus on boosting production to meet the basic needs of a growing population has taken precedence over enhancing rural households' livelihoods and resilience. However, improving rural households' resilience in drought conditions hinges on prioritizing their capacity for adaptability and flexibility. Therefore, considering the sensitivity of the issue of resilience as a dominant approach effective on the dimensions of life and livelihood of rural households on the one hand and the lack of a comprehensive study on its underlying factors, on the other hand, this research seeks to answer two questions: First, what is the resilience level of rural households against drought? Second, what factors influence the resilience levels of rural households in drought conditions? Materials and MethodsThe statistical population of this study is 16,817 rural households in Zehak city, located in Sistan and Baluchistan province, which are strongly influenced by different climatic events such as drought, excessive heat, low rainfall and 120-day winds. A stratified random sampling method was used to determine the sample size. According to Cochran's formula, the sample size is estimated to be 376 households. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. To measure the resilience capacity of rural households, the theoretical framework of TANGO based on the estimation of the three capacities of absorption, adaptation and transfer was used through the factor analysis method, in which attitudinal and mental aspects of resilience are also taken into account. Finally, partial proportional odds model has been used to evaluate the influencing factors on the resilience capacity of rural households. Results and DiscussionThe results of the state of resilience capacity of rural households in the region indicated that the average value of their resilience capacity is 26.27, which shows the low level of resilience capacity in the region. Also, the households of the region are in a bad situation based on the absorption, adaptation and transmission capacities, and the households of the region have a stronger transmission capacity than the absorption and adaptation capacity against drought. The results of grouping the resilience capacity of households reveal that 32.45% are in the vulnerable group, 28.19% are in the relative resilience group, 22.61% are in the resilient group and 16.76% are in the high resilience group. The results show that more than 60% of households are at very low levels of resilience. Finally, the partial proportional odds model results demonstrated that the variables of education of the head of the household, skill level in agricultural activities, savings, household income, number of household contacts with agricultural extension, membership of the head of the household in social groups and access to microcredits have a positive effect and variables of the value of the loss of agricultural products and the number of livestock lost have a negative effect on the resilience capacity of rural households against drought. ConclusionAccording to the findings, policy-makers should prioritize strengthening the variables that determine the resilience capacity and its dimensions in the implementation of drought management programs so that households can absorb drought shocks without damaging their basic components. Policy-makers should also target specific categories of risks, dimensions of vulnerability and resilience in different time periods (before, during, and after shock) in order to choose comprehensive strategies to build and increase resilience. For instance, before a shock, better access to early detection of emerging climate risks could help farmers plan their cropping activities accordingly. Access to climate information allows for forward-looking adaptation that reduces the impact of shocks and increases resilience.
Agricultural Economics
M. Mirchooli; M. Ghorbani; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
IntroductionThe dependence of agriculture on environmental conditions has caused the activity in this sector to face natural and unnatural risks. After several years of agricultural insurance activity in Razavi Khorasan province, most of the pistachio farmers are not insured. Drought insurance is one ...
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IntroductionThe dependence of agriculture on environmental conditions has caused the activity in this sector to face natural and unnatural risks. After several years of agricultural insurance activity in Razavi Khorasan province, most of the pistachio farmers are not insured. Drought insurance is one of the methods that has become important to cover the risks of drought and lack of water resources in order to compensate part of the gardeners' losses. The main issue from a managerial perspective is risk management. The use of agricultural insurance, which is one of the risk management tools, will ensure financial security and stability for farmers. Given that insurance is a tool for risk management, and given the uncertainty and risks of climate change in agriculture, insurance can be a very adaptable tool to water scarcity. Agricultural insurance is considered as a useful and appropriate solution to deal with natural hazards. . Drought insurance is an important factor in off-farm drought risk management that can mitigate the effects of this inevitable phenomenon. Insurance as one of the risk management tools can increase the risk-taking of farmers and, consequently, increase the sense of security in farmers, the necessary ground for proper and efficient use of factors of production and investment in the use of new technology and thus increase productivity in agriculture provide. The effects of water scarcity can be summarized as follows; Loss of production and income, abandonment of busy crops (with high water demand) and decline in agricultural employment, on the other hand, intensifies the over-exploitation of groundwater aquifers, which has tempted many farmers to do so meet your water needs. Access to water in the study area is one of the important variables affecting pistachio yield and quality as well as the survival of pistachio trees. This variable directly affects the profitability of producers and gardeners may suffer losses from this vital input. For this reason, gardeners' behavior in relation to regular pistachio insurance can affect access to water and make more farmers inclined to drought insurance. Materials and MethodsThis research seeks to answer the question that with 5% reduction in available water, pistachio growers in Sabzevar city, whether these people are willing to accept pistachio drought insurance or not, and if so, what is the extent of this desire. The Probit pattern is one of the most suitable econometric patterns for censored observations. This model was first proposed by Tobin (1958) to estimate the demand for durable goods. Subsequently, Arab Mazar and Schmidt (1979), Brown and Mufit (1982), Madela and Nelson (1982), and Hard (1975) worked on and developed the model, validating its high capability. This pattern was named by Goldberger (1964) as the Tobit or Probin Tobin model. Assume that y is the level of activity or action desired and xi are factors that generally affect the level of activity or action in question, namely:Also assume that one group of the observed observations performs the desired activity and the other group (the rest) does not perform the desired activity. As mentioned earlier, the values of xi and yi are visible for the first group. While for the second group only xi values are available and yi values are zero.In Hackmann's proposed two-step method for estimating the Tobit model, it is assumed that one set of variables may influence the decision to participate in the activity and another set of variables may affect the amount of activity performed after the decision is made. Therefore, two different sets of variables can be included in the Probit model, which are not necessarily barriers to aggregation. Therefore, two different sets of variables can be included in the Tobit model, which are not necessarily barriers to aggregation. Because it does not have a one-step model of this flexibility, it assumes that the variables influencing a person's decision to engage in an activity are the same as the variables that determine the amount of activity, if this is not necessarily the case. Hackman's two suggested steps are:Step 1: In the first step, the variables that affect the decision of gardeners in accepting pistachio drought insurance are identified and placed in a model with a binary dependent variable (zeros and ones); This means that the positive values of the dependent variable that indicate the tendency to accept pistachio drought insurance become the number one, and the dependent variable that does not tend to accept the drought insurance is set to zero. The number one means the decision to perform the activity and zero means the non-performance of the activity. At this stage, in order to identify the factors influencing the individual's decision, the Probit Model is used and estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The first step is to create a new variable inverse of the Mills ratio to enter the second step. In other words, this variable is the first and second stage communication bridge.Step 2: In the second stage, the measures affecting the willingness to participate in drought insurance after the decision is made along with the inverse Mills ratio variable are placed in a classical regression model. The dependent variable in the second stage is the amount of garden area likely to be allocated to drought insurance.Reasons to use the Tobit model: Many econometric models face two types of errors, either due to the use of specific observation data or due to the structural features of the models: first, the error due to incorrect sample selection, which usually occurs in using classical regression models, and second, the same error Assuming effective variables in the decision stage and the amount of activity performed after the decision is made (decision and action or intention and action), which usually occurs in regression models with binary and multiple responses. The Tobit model has been developed to prevent the occurrence of these two types of errors in studies.The first error is the error of incorrect sample selection; in the sense that in many econometric models, information is obtained only from observations that have acted on the activity and omits observations that have refused to do that activity. Therefore, these models are not able to assess the reaction of observations that did not act on the independent variable changes. Tobit model (type one) solves this problem in terms of observations that have performed the desired activity as well as other observations. Under these conditions, the effect of changes in independent variables on both the total observations and on the observations of the activity can be calculated separately.The second error means that the factors that influence a person's decision to perform an activity are not necessarily the same as the factors that determine the amount and level of activity desired, and can be two different sets of variables. The Tobit model (type two, Hackett or Hackman two-stage) solves this problem by separating the factors influencing the decision and the amount of activity. Results and DiscussionThe data show that the response of pistachio growers to the reduction of available water in the next 2 and 5 years is that all gardeners will insure their pistachio orchards with a 5% reduction in available water, but in terms of area under cultivation, only 39% Gardeners will increase their arable land in the next 2 years and 33% of gardeners in the next 5 years. The reaction of gardeners who did not have a history of pistachio insurance to accept pistachio insurance and increase or decrease the area under pistachio orchard in exchange for a 5% reduction in available water in the next 2 and 5 years shows that about 51% of gardeners face a 5% reduction in water in 2 And in the next 5 years, they will insure their pistachio orchards, and about 60% of gardeners will increase their cultivation in the next 2 or 5 years in the face of a 5% reduction in available water. The results of the evaluation of gardeners' reaction to the continuation of the horticultural profession in the face of a 5% reduction in available water in the next 2 years will cause 34% of gardeners not to continue this profession and 51% of gardeners will not continue this profession in the next 5 years. In the long run, water shortages can reduce the incentive for gardeners to grow pistachios. The reaction of gardeners to pistachio insurance against the reduction of available water quality shows that only 1.38 percent of the total population in the face of reduced quality of available water reduce the level of their insured garden and about 30% of them faced with declining available water quality, they will increase the level of their insured garden; And the rest of the gardeners (about 68.6%) do not change their insured level in the face of declining water quality.ConclusionAccording to the obtained information, the variables as gardener's age, ownership, relationship between gardener's field of study and agriculture, location, variety of cultivation, existence of insured pistachio garden in the neighborhood, frequency of risk, total water available to each gardener and garden life of each gardener in the first stage (Probit Model) have positive coefficients; which indicates the positive effect of these variables on the probability of willingness to accept pistachio drought insurance. In the second stage (linear regression), the variables of pistachio horticulture history, frequency of risk, garden life and total number of water hours available to gardeners have positive coefficients, which indicate the positive effect of these variables on the dependent variable of the second stage, is the tendency to accept pistachio drought insurance.
Agricultural Economics
Sh. Zarif Moradian; M. Sabouhi; M. Daneshvar Kakhki
Abstract
Introduction Given the growing global hunger in recent years, creating and increasing resilience among disadvantaged and impoverished communities, emphasized in the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, is a significant concern to most countries. The term resilience is generally considered as the ...
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Introduction Given the growing global hunger in recent years, creating and increasing resilience among disadvantaged and impoverished communities, emphasized in the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, is a significant concern to most countries. The term resilience is generally considered as the capacity of a system to withstand various risks, and household resilience can be defined as the ability to return to the previous level of living conditions after a shock. Since one of the most critical shocks that farmers have faced in Iran is drought, the present study aimed to estimate the effect of drought on rural farmers’ household resilience in a selected village in Qalandar Abad district in Iran. Materials and Methods The factor analysis method was used to estimate the components of the Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the Mimic (Multiple indicators_ multiple causes) method was used to estimate the latent variable of resilience. RIMA, which considers resilience as a latent variable, includes four main components of Access to Basic Services (ABS), Assets (AST), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Adaptive Capacity (AC). Also, according to the purpose of the study on estimating the resilience of rural households with the MIMIC method, at least two food security indicators at the household level, as multiple indicators of resilience, are required. The food security indices used in the calculations of this study include the Household Hunger Scale Index and the household Food Consumption Score. The samples included 149 farmers randomly selected from Hossein Abad Rekhneh Gol village, and data were collected through interviews with the household head. To reveal the effect of different shocks on the rural resilience households, self-reported information such as drought, livestock loss, and the characteristics of the households were used through an Ordinary Last Square regression. Results and Discussion In the first stage, each of the pillars of resilience, including Access to Basic Services, Assets, Social Safety Nets, and Adaptive Capacity, which are considered latent variables, shows a higher correlation between the variables, and the calculated pillars indicate the greater importance of that variable in each of the resilience components. According to the results, among the variables that constitute the pillar of access to basic services, "the distance from the household to the health center" variable correlates with this pillar, which indicates its high importance. In addition, the "attending school years" is one of the most important variables in forming and creating the adaptive capacity of a household to the crises ahead. The agricultural water availability and the total yield during a year play an important role in creating the asset pillar. Regarding creating the social safety nets pillar, as we expected, the governmental cash transfers, through monthly subsidies, the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation, and the State Welfare Organization of Iran, is the most crucial variable. The results obtained from the food consumption (FCS) score index showed that 117 out of 149 studied households are within the acceptable threshold, 28 households are on the borderline, and four households are in a poor food consumption situation. The Hunger Scale Index showed that out of 149 households, 62 households are on the little to no hunger threshold, while 81 households are on the moderate hunger and six households are on the severe hunger threshold. Also, based on the results of the MIMIC model, among the calculated pillars, household assets is the most important. The increase of one standard deviation unit in AST will increase 0.06 standard deviation units in the resilience capacity index. Adaptive capacity and social safety nets pillars also play a significant role in creating resilience for rural households. Thus, increasing one standard deviation in the AC and SSN led to an increase in the magnitude of the resilience by 0.04 and 0.03 standard deviations, respectively. Finally, the effect of different shocks on the rural resilience households showed that variables such as drought, livestock loss, and gender of household head (being female) have a negative effect on their resilience. The size of the household has a positive impact, which means that the more family members, the more resilience. Conclusion One of the critical goals of underdeveloped and developing countries, is to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development. In Iran, like other developing countries, smallholder farmers are known to be vulnerable to environmental and economic changes such as climate change, rising prices of agricultural inputs, etc. Therefore, adopting and implementing policies that lead to a fair income distribution for vulnerable people is essential. Estimating the RIMA makes it possible to rank households based on their strengths, weaknesses, and current needs. Budget allocation and the policy time duration are two limiting factors that may optimize using the RIMA results. The present study examined the RIMA and the effect of drought on the calculated index for the first time in Iran for a specific region. Since the ranking of households based on resilience requires awareness of all vulnerable households' situations, the definition of short-term and long-term projects in the future development plans is essential. To identify "the most vulnerable groups" and "the most important challenges and shocks," these scheduled projects are vital for budget allocation prioritization.
H. Ailbakhshi; A. Dourandish; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Introduction: Understanding the temporal and spatial fluctuations of climatic parameters (such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) and its impact on agricultural sector is essential for managing agricultural resources and adopting appropriate strategies. Precipitation directly affects ...
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Introduction: Understanding the temporal and spatial fluctuations of climatic parameters (such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) and its impact on agricultural sector is essential for managing agricultural resources and adopting appropriate strategies. Precipitation directly affects the production of dry crops by supplying the required moisture for the plant, and indirectly affects the production of aquatic crops through supplying surface and underground water resources. Climate change has an effect on temperature and precipitation distribution and consequently affects the plants water requirement and agricultural water consumption. Overall, climate change is influenced by both temperature and precipitation. Due to the changing rainfall pattern and average temperature of the atmosphere, this phenomenon can damage the production of agricultural products that maintain the major food sources of the country. Given the important role of agriculture in the country's economy and the existence of the ongoing water crisis and drought in the country, climate change can have major impacts on their aggravation. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of climate change and water scarcity on agricultural production, price and income in Iran.Materials and Methods: The multi-market model, sometimes referred to as the "finite general equilibrium" or "multi-market partial equilibrium model", has reduced the complexities of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The AMM template was used for this purpose. To simulate the effects of climate change, crop yields were calculated using yield response coefficients. Then, the demand function of different products was calculated using estimated elasticities and finally climate change has been simulated for 2025.Results and Discussion: The results showed that climate change would increase, yield of rainfed wheat, blue barley, dry barley and maize grain in semi-arid climate and subtropical climate, in addition dry barley and barley products in warm semi-arid climate and subtropical climate, and finally rainfed barley and corn products Grain in temperate semi-arid climates and subtropicals climate by 2025 relative to current levels. Climate change also would decrease yields of dry wheat and barley in temperate semi-arid climates and subtropicals, and also wheat in warm and semi-arid climates and subtropicals for 2025 compared to the present value. The results also showed that climate change would expand the water available for the blue wheat crop in the semi-arid climate and sub-climates, besides the blue barley crop in the semi-arid, semi-arid, and temperate semi-arid climates for 2025 compared to the present value. Climate change also might reduce the amount of water available for the blue wheat crop in the climate and sub-arid and semi-arid sub-climates, therefor the corn yield in the cold and semi-arid sub-climates and sub-climates for 2025 compared to the present value. The results also revealed that climate change would diminish cultivation of maize crop in semi-arid climate and temperate climates in addition irrigated and rainfed wheat crop in warm and semi-arid sub-climate and also rainfed wheat crop in semi-arid climate by 2025 relative to the present situation. Also the area under cultivation of blue barley and dry barley crops in warm and semi-arid climates, cold and semi-arid climates, and blue wheat crop in semi-arid climates and rainfed wheat crop in temperate and semi-arid climates would decrease by 2025.Conclusion: The results also demonstrated that with the climate change, the amount of maize crop production in cold and semi-arid climates and sub-climates, and the production of blue and dry wheat crops in warm and semi-arid climates, cold semi-arid, temperate and dry semi-arid climates for 20 years would decrease relative to current value. Also, the production of irrigated and rainfed barley in warm and semi-arid climates, sub-climates and temperate semi-arid climates for 2025 would increase compared to the present situation. Thus the first hypothesis of the study: "Climate change and water scarcity reduces agricultural production" is not approved in Iran. The results also explained that with the climate change the prices of wheat, barley and maize crops in the semi-arid and temperate climates for the year 2025 would also rise, so the second hypothesis of the study "Climate change and scarcity of water resources will increase the prices of agricultural products in Iran” is confirmed. The results also show that with climate change, farmers 'incomes in cold and semi-arid climates, temperate and warm semi-arid climates would increase by 2025 relative to their present value, so the third research hypothesis that "climate change and water scarcity reduces farmers' income" In Iran, " is not confirmed. The results also indicated that wheat, barley and maize exports remained negative by the creation of net climate change for 2025 and that the country's climate change created an importer of these products.
L. Ravand; A. Dourandish; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Introduction: Globalization is an inevitable process that one of its consequences is the liberalization of trade and the reduction of protectionism. Trade liberalization causing the heavily interdependent economics of the countries around the world to reduce customs and trade barriers to a minimum level, ...
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Introduction: Globalization is an inevitable process that one of its consequences is the liberalization of trade and the reduction of protectionism. Trade liberalization causing the heavily interdependent economics of the countries around the world to reduce customs and trade barriers to a minimum level, and make financial transfers between countries easily done. Rice is the most important and strategic crop after wheat and plays a significant role in trade and food security of the world and Iran. Because it provides more than 20% of human total daily calories and Almost two thirds of the world's population depends on rice for food. The total Production of Rice in Iran during 2012-2013 was about 2.3 million ton and about 93% of rice products are yielded in Gilan, Mazandaran, Khuzestan, Golestan and Fars provinces. About 88% of total production of rice in Iran is allocated to domestic consumption while just 12% of goes to the world market. Total consumption of rice in Iran is about 3.2 million ton.
Materials and Methods: The model that is used in this study is Agricultural sector partial equilibrium model with endogenous prices. The data used in present study are the average of production, consumption, export, import and area under cultivation quantity, which export and import prices for long, medium and short grain rice and import tariffs for two growing years of 2011-12 and 2012-13 are considered. These information are provided from agriculture jihad organization of Iran, Customs Office of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the book of export-import regulations. In current research, at first simple linear demand function is calibrated for long, medium and short grain rice based on demand price elasticity. The supply function involves two parts: domestic supply function and export supply function. The calibration of domestic supply is done by a Maximum Entropy integrated PMP method and calibration of export supply function is based on export supply price elasticity. It should be noted that the demand elasticities used in current study are captured from various studies and the export supply elasticities are taken as unity following Aydın et al (2004). Constraints that are used in the model are comprised of the constraints of area under cultivations, water, chemical fertilizer, variable costs, constraint of commodity balance and constraints of calibration includes area under cultivation and export.
Results and Discussion: The investigated scenarios are the reduction of import tariffs for rice by 10, 25, 50, 75, 90 and 100 percent. The results of present study showed that The area under cultivation of long and medium grain rice, compared to the base year (2012 and 2013 will decrease about 0.61 and 3.38 percent), in Mazandaran province, about 0.49 and 9.18 percent in Gilan province, about 2.82 and 4.32 percent in Golestan province , about 90 and 0.6 percent in Khuzestan province and about 24.47 and 2.47 in Fars province t. Short grain rice in Golestan province will decrease about 22.93 percent and in Fars province will decrease about 43.33 percent. Generally, with decreasing tariff rates, the long, medium and short grain rice, compared to the base year (2012 and 2013), will decrease about 21.5, 4 and 11.5 percent, respectively. Also, the consumption of long, medium and short grain rice will increase by 0.5, 1.1 and 0.7 percent, respectively. The average import of long, medium and short grain rice will increase by 5, 11 and 33.5 percent, respectively and Exports of long, medium and short grain rice also will increase by about 7.7%, 11.7% and 11.43% as a result of tariff cuts. Also, the net social welfare due to the reduction of rice tariff rates relative to the base year, will increase about 0.2 percent. The average welfare of consumers will increase about 1% and the welfare of producers will decrease about 1.7 percent compared to the base year. Also the welfare of the state will increase about 9.5 percent compared to the base year.
Conclusions: Considering small cultivated pieces of land, the high cost of production, the lack of relative advantage in the production of some types of rice and also the high waste of factories in the country, trade liberalization can be fruitful. Considering the importance of product advantages in producing, exporting and importing as well the best quality of Iranian rice, creating new technologies and new planting methods such as hydroponic cultivation, which leads to increased performance and increased water productivity per unit area, and also planting kinds of rice which have advantages in each province would conclude increasing the welfare of rice producers.
L. Hassani; M. Daneshvar Kakhki; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Introduction: Over the last two decades, awareness of resilience and sustainability and also efforts to reduce unsustainable production patterns have significantly increased. Hence, it is crucial to examine the resilience and sustainability of production systems. Resilience explains how well production ...
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Introduction: Over the last two decades, awareness of resilience and sustainability and also efforts to reduce unsustainable production patterns have significantly increased. Hence, it is crucial to examine the resilience and sustainability of production systems. Resilience explains how well production systems withstand and/or rebound from aberration. Sustainability concept based on Commission’s words is: “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. The important issue relevant to resilience and sustainability and the resilience of farms/agricultural systems is, whether resilience or sustainability can be considered as a property of a system or needs to be understood as a process. Since both of them are not essentially opposed but have various theoretical and methodological implications, it is necessary to define a resilience and sustainability indicator. So, it is required to have an intelligent objective function for fairly balancing between production systems and dimensions of sustainable production to fulfill economic benefit and the resulting environmental benefit, etc. Based on the existing published literature, studies focusing on both resilience and sustainability indicators in industrial dairy farms by using multi-objective non-linear programming and swarm intelligence algorithm have not been carried out. Therefore, it is the aim of the present study to design the “automata resilience and sustainability indicator” for industrial dairy farms. The objective function has a hierarchical structure and in order to integrate these pillars into a single score, a value between zero and one, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used that the value of one means complete sustainability.
Material and Methods: The objective function should be maximized which has 5 main indicators including, environmental, economic, social, technological and political issues. Each indicator has some sub-indicators. So, we designed and modeled formulas for all of them. The value of objective function is normalized, therefore, its maximum possible value is "one", which indicates the complete resilience and sustainability of dairy farms. The resilience and sustainability indicator is obtained at three levels. Eight types of constraint sets are considered. Then, the model has been implemented using data of 30[1] industrial dairy farms in Khorasan-Razavi province of Iran during 2016.
Results and Discussion: The resilience and sustainability indicator across all farms was obtained 0.43 and which was low. One of the main reasons of unsustainability and inflexibility of dairy farms under study is the unsuitable use of resources and inputs. Therefore, the proposed model (Automata Resilience and Sustainability Indicator Model) was designed and optimized. Based on result the optimum resilience and sustainability achievable for the proposed dairy farm is 0.9598 (95.98%). Thus, the proposed model succeeds in determining the dairy farms' resilience and sustainability. Furthermore, it helps in setting up other operational parameters as determining the amount of cow manure produced, the man-working hours and labor expenditure. The obtained results should be further used as guidance for improving the resilience and sustainability of the manufacturing operation in dairy farms.
Conclusions: This study has introduced a formulation for a resilience and sustainability problem in process of production in the industrial dairy farm. The contribution of the proposed formulation is its ability to addresses all pillars of resilience and sustainability at the producing level. One of the main advantages of the proposed measure of resilience and sustainability is data collection that relies on data usually collected in all farms for revenue and cost analysis, cattle diet and quality control. This fact makes the model applicable to facilities introducing resilience and sustainability concepts. Thus contributes to promoting the implementation of sustainable practices in agricultural production, especially in developing countries, where still have a lack of resilience and sustainability awareness and related legislation. Using weight is important to the application of the objective function and also makes the model suitable for its intended usage in the dairy farms of developing countries. This model is applicable in the area of the optimum dairy cattle nutrition, rising profitability, reducing feed cost, decreasing GHG, managing the water and energy consumption, etc., by maximizing resilience and sustainability in dairy farms. Additionally, the results allow also for identifying the prospective measures for improving resilience and sustainability. Through results analysis, a strategy for developing resilience and sustainability can be well defined. Furthermore, the current research can be extended by integrating the model with life cycle assessment results, another producer support policies, dairy farms' capacity expansions and could also be applicable to other forms of agricultural systems by a bit changes in the decision variables and model parameters.
4- This data was gathered based on non-random sampling. Because, in non-random sampling, the sample individuals are selected among individuals who have a defined characteristics and based on researcher's opinion. The proposed model is designed for a sample dairy unit. In other words, the data obtained from non-random sampling were used only to determine the status of the studied samples.
M. Jamshidifar; M. Salarpour; M. Sabouhi; H. Mehrabi Boshrabadi; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani
Abstract
Introduction: Poultry is now one of the largest industry in Khorasan Razavi province and chicken meat has an important role in household food needs. Developing appropriate studies that lead to strategies for handling poultry products to fulfil consumers’ demand have become quite a challenging issue ...
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Introduction: Poultry is now one of the largest industry in Khorasan Razavi province and chicken meat has an important role in household food needs. Developing appropriate studies that lead to strategies for handling poultry products to fulfil consumers’ demand have become quite a challenging issue especially due to crisis situation. Supply chain system in this paper means a chain of processes from the rearing farm to the final consumer of the finished product and provide useful operational analysis of system behaviors for managing supply chain under demand uncertainties and production disruptions.
Materials and Methods: In this paper, a system dynamics model is applied for studying the behavior of the chicken meat supply chain threatened by bird flu, demand fluctuation and Government (State Livestock Affairs Logistics) intervention under the Vensim environment. The model is an extended version of real-life practice which involves producers, consumers and government. A causal loop diagram used to show how interrelated variables affect one another and connect together. This important diagram can handle assumptions regarding facing various calamities and disaster which is an integral part of the poultry industry. This dynamic model development can track possible disasters in time to prepare facing them. To cover more possibility, we propose three scenarios of different levels for demand and present of loss bird. To find out the most efficient rearing rate in crisis situation, demand fluctuation and loss bird rate are considered simultaneously in scenarios. Importance of chicken meat strategic reserve for Norouz lead us to impose a constraint for government purchasing and expenditure during the last month of simulation. Operations during a 120 days are simulated and a what-if analysis performed to study the model stability under uncertainty environment.
Results and Discussion: As a starting position no bird losses rate and demand problems included and supply chain fills all of demands without purchase chicken meat from external markets. The equilibrium was reached when the available live chicken level equals to 382 (ton/day). Results showed that without changing demand levels for achieving supply chain stability, the system need to import chicken meat for entire of the crisis period and government intervenes in market to ensure remunerative prices for producers and affordable prices for consumers. In sanitary crisis situation, decreasing demand can reduce the external purchases and unexpected costs but it decreases net income of producers simultaneously. In all scenarios external purchases and unexpected government purchasing are zero when the demand decreasing level is maximum. The simulation results showed that 10 percent of domestic farms affecting by Bird flu can increase the amount of external purchases up to 40 (ton/day) and give rise to unexpected government expenditures by 3360 (million Rial). It is evident from the model that slaughtering all reared chicken (available live chickens) after exactly 42 days can give number of benefits to the industry and profit is maximize in the simulated behavior for this scenario test. Reduction of rearing time can increase the amount of available chicken meat and net income of producer by 18 percent. In contrast, an increase of 15 days in rearing time can considerably reduce net income of producer by 30 percent. This means that a reduction of rearing time (standardization of poultry size and weight) can be a solution to improve poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province. Income of producer is sensitive to the crisis and it is reduced up to 27 percent at peak of bird loss rate. Poultry producers are suffering from economic loss due to management, bird disease and transportation stress. These factors not only affects the quantity but also decrease the quality of chicken meat. On the other hand, 5 percent decrease in slaughterhouse and transportation mortalities immediately leads to an increase in supply chain incomes and the level of chicken meat inventory. According to the result, with management of chicken transportation, slaughter and rearing time, even in the worst scenario when the loss bird rate was maximum, it is possible to fulfil demand with domestic production capacity.
Conclusions: The supply chain is affected by endogenous and exogenous factors such as government intervention. Therefore an establishment of an integrated system between rearing farms, transport system, slaughterhouse and government purchasing can be helpful especially in crisis period. Poultry industry can integrate complete supply chain network so decision-makers can assist calculating the economic returns and reduce the risk. Moreover, producers will be able to compete with the other provinces and global markets as well as reducing their operational costs. Future research can focus on the different variables and study poultry wastes of processing by-products on the poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province.
Sh. Zare; H. Mohammadi; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Introduction Sustainable use of groundwater resources has been a concern of the past half century. Although a number of countries for many years have considered this issue, in Iran despite experts warning in the past two decades, recently has been highly regarded, especially by public officials. The ...
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Introduction Sustainable use of groundwater resources has been a concern of the past half century. Although a number of countries for many years have considered this issue, in Iran despite experts warning in the past two decades, recently has been highly regarded, especially by public officials. The use of modern irrigation systems by improving water distribution at the level of the farm and reduce the outflow of water from plant availability, improve irrigation efficiency but these systems increase evaporation and transpiration, and even in the event of a reduction of extraction water from wells, may not be effective in balance of the groundwater resources. The government of Islamic Republic of Iran, yearly pay a lot of subsidies (85% of total cost), to increase irrigation efficiency by equipping traditional culture to new irrigation systems. It may increase irrigation efficiency but may not improve balance of the groundwater resources. However, increasing irrigation efficiency in the process of conveyance, distribution, and application of water, improve groundwater balance, and reduce energy consumption, but costs, benefits and its impacts on balance of the groundwater resources are various in each step. so, technical and economic effects of each step and determining the priority of them, were the objectives of this study.
Materials and Methods In order to carry out this study, five cities include Mashhad, Sabzevar, Neyshabour, Torbat-e-jam and Torbat-e-heidarieh were selected. These areas are located in Khorasan Razavi in north east of Iran with average annual rain 200-250 millimeter. The mathematical relationships between extracted water from underground and surface resources and transfer it to farms as well as water influence to groundwater source and the rate of consumption in the fields and orchards were simulated in the excel spreadsheet. Data were collected by using questionnaires and interviews with farmers in the study area in the crop year 2012-2013. Additional data were collected from government documents in ministry of agriculture, energy and regional office. A multi scenario was simulated include 1-Increase the conveyance and distribution efficiency, CDE, to 95 % via transform dirty channel into the pipe. 2-Substitute pressurized irrigation systems instead of traditional system.3-Combining scenario one and two together. 4- Increasing irrigation application efficiency, IAE, to 75% in modern system in scenario three. 5-Increasing irrigation application efficiency, IAE, to 85% in modern systems in scenario three. 6- Execute scenario one and increasing area of irrigation modern systems to dual of initial forecast (only in Sabzevar until 1.5times). These scenarios also evaluated economically. In economic evaluation, increase of yield, between 10-40 percent as 4 scenarios separately, and reduce energy subsidies include increase power price to 2 times, and three kinds of cost price of power was considered.
Results and Discussion Average of CDE were obtained various between 57-78% in study area. The share of agricultural activity in reduce of groundwater source was 20% and most of area was encountered with low irrigation in warm seasons until to 50%. The most impact in creating balance in groundwater resources belonged to increase of CDE by first scenario and was quite economical. The most reduction on groundwater deficit can happen by scenario 5. However, in Torbat-e-jam and Torbat-e-heidarieh, groundwater deficit will continue unless the culture areas are reduced. Increasing IAE, is more effective than developing culture area of the pressurized irrigation systems, CAPIS, for example, in Sabzvar, increasing of IAE by 12% (scenario four), will reduce groundwater deficit 164% but increasing CAPIS, to 50%( scenario 6), will reduce groundwater deficit only 113%. Increasing CAPIS, with 30% increase in yield, make scenario three economical, but increase electrical energy and so, increase national cost by increasing subsidy of energy. First scenario, reduce consumption of electric power, so its benefit cost ratio will increase because reduce government cost but scenario two, increase consumed electrical energy. In the Sabzevar city power consumption in the first scenario was more than 176 million Kilowatt, which reduces farmers' spending by more than 23 billion IRR, But in the second scenario, energy consumption is rising by more than 25 million kilowatts. So, its benefit cost ratio will decrease if government reduce power subsidy. As a result, this scenario without increase of IAE and yield, will not be economical. In all city except Sabzevar with the increasing yield by 20 percent, all scenarios will be economical, also in all city, with omission of the power subsidy, scenario 2 will be uneconomical, so the government is forced to grant subsidies to expand new irrigation systems. The city of Sabzevar, which has the longest route for pipelines (about 42%), requires an initial investment of 695 billion rials, with investment of 1079 billion IRR needed to equip 15342 hectares of land to modern systems. Therefore, the first scenario, although having more economic benefits, requires a relatively small amount of investment as well. Regarding the energy cost of between 680 and 7300 Rls, a number of government payments with the implementation of the first scenario is reduced from 96 to 1263 billion rials yearly, while the total initial capital required to realization of the goal is 695 billion rials, which is estimated at 70 billion rials, annually.
Replacing the irrigation modern systems instead of traditional systems without reducing the gap between the current and potential IAE, had a little impact on the groundwater balance, and to consider energy subsidies, is in conflict to national benefits.
Conclusions Installation of volumetric meters and tubing for water transmission and distribution channels should be used in preference to increase the efficiency of irrigation, reduce energy consumption and water extraction from wells, protection of saving water, and prevention of increase in cultivation. In order to increase the water application efficiency and production, implementation of modern irrigation systems on farms and gardens should be accompanied by adequate supervision and training.
F. Bahrami Mehneh; A.A. Keikha; M. Sabouhi; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani
Abstract
Introduction: Water scarcity has become a global issue due to its direct relationship with food security. For this reason, the need for the long-term sustainable use of water necessitates the application of effective strategies. In this regard, strategic programs are utilized in water resource management ...
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Introduction: Water scarcity has become a global issue due to its direct relationship with food security. For this reason, the need for the long-term sustainable use of water necessitates the application of effective strategies. In this regard, strategic programs are utilized in water resource management and agricultural policies in order to increase self-sufficiency, to reduce the food gap, to decrease the cultivation of water based products, to maximize the economic value of water and to guarantee efficient allocation of resources among different activities in most parts of the world. The main objective of this study is to develop a decision support system to achieve the above-mentioned policies and strategies in the ten agricultural and ecological zones in the country according to the amount of virtual water for crop production.
Data and Methods: The decision support system seeks to introduce an optimum pattern and to investigate the current status of water resources and determine the food gap and virtual economic value by means of a linear programming model. It intends also to determine the return on investment of crop production in each region. Our goal of this research is to maximize the value of virtual water with respect to land and availability of surface water and groundwater constraints. We also consider socio-economic constraints to ensure minimum and maximum area under cultivation in every region. In order to achieve accurate results, the social value of goods and inputs has been used in the model. In determining the social value of all goods and tradable inputs, prices of the border with a shadow exchange rate are used. Given the importance of addressing the amount of water used to produce goods, the virtual water content of products on maximizing the economic value of water is used in this study. Due to climatic conditions and consequently the performance of production in different regions, we use water requirement to crop yield ratio for every region for calculation of the virtual water content of a product. In this study, water valuation was based on value added inputs, while social values were used as criteria in its calculation. The data are gathered from the database of the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy and the relevant agencies in the region. We used the 32.5 Edition of GAMS software to estimate the proposed model.
Results: The results show the amount of water used by farmers to grow major crops in different regions in 1392, was 19 billion cubic meters. Central Zagros with 3.8 billion cubic meters and the Central dry zone with 1.2 billion cubic meters have respectively the largest and smallest water consumption. The results also showed the greatest change and lowest change in economic value of irrigation water related to wet wheat and wet cotton respectively. The regional view, the greatest and the lowest value of water refers respectively to the South Zagros region and the region of Khuzestan. Research results show that the pattern of demand reduces the food gap through increased cultivation of some strategic products. In order to reduce the food gap, one of the most important strategies is the increased cultivation of the wheat crop.
Conclusion: This study provided a cultivating pattern in order to meet two important goals: cutting water consumption and reducing the food gap by increasing the cultivation of strategic crops such as wheat. In fact, by implementing appropriate Logistic policies, the government and politicians can achieve the aforementioned objectives by diversifying the current cultivation pattern in the desired region in compliance with environmental, economic and food security and health security considerations. The economic value of irrigation water and reduction of the area under cultivation is also a consequence of the proposed program. Instead of providing constant value in all regions of a country, providing an optimal cultivation pattern while considering the exact value of virtual water is a better policy. The proposed cropping pattern reduces Food gap and the area of water-based production cultivation and reduces water consumption, which can be used for producing strategic crops. The proposed cropping pattern increases the economic value of water by 20%. Indeed, it suggests that acreage crops such as wheat, pulses, and oil seeds are increased and rice and sugar beet cultivation is decreased. The main objective of the proposed cropping patterns to reduce the food gap and increase the welfare of consumers.
F. Sakhi; H. Mohammadi; M. Sabuhi
Abstract
Introduction: Farmers are facing with a variety of natural and unnatural risks in agricultural activities, and thus their income is unstable. A wide range of risks such as risks of production, price risk, financial and human risks, influence the income of agricultural products. One of the major risks ...
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Introduction: Farmers are facing with a variety of natural and unnatural risks in agricultural activities, and thus their income is unstable. A wide range of risks such as risks of production, price risk, financial and human risks, influence the income of agricultural products. One of the major risks that farmers faced is the risk of price volatility of agricultural products. Cotton is one of the agricultural products with high real price volatility. Numerous tools for marketing and risk management for agricultural products in the face of price risks are available. Futures and options contracts may be the most important available tools (to reduce price volatility) in agricultural products. The purpose of the current study was to look at the possibility of farmers participations in the future and option markets that presented as a means to reduce the cotton prices volatility. The dependent variable for this purpose had four categories and these included: participate in both the market, participation in the future market, participation in the option market and participation in both future and option markets.
Materials and Methods: data gathered with interview and completing 200 questionnaires of cotton growers using simple random sampling. Multinomial Logit Regression Model was used for data analysis.
Results and Discussion: To measure content validity of the preliminary study the validity of confirmatory factor analysis were used. For calculating reliability, the pre-test done with 30 questionnaires and reliability, coefficient Cronbach alpha was 0.79. The independence of dependent variables categories was confirmed by Hausman test results. The Likelihood ratio and Wald showed these categories are not combinable. Results indicated into period 2014 -2015 and the sample under study, 35% of cotton growers unwilling to participate in future and option markets. Farmers willingness to participate in future and option market was 19% and %21.5 respectively. Multinomial Logit model estimation results for the probability of participation in the future and option markets showed that variables of the level of education, farm ownership, cotton acreage, and non-farm income, work experience in agriculture, the index of willing to use new technologies, the index of risk perception cotton market and risk aversion index are statistically significant. The variables of farm ownership, non-farm income and work experience in agriculture, showed negative effects and the other variables showed positive effects on the probability of participation in these markets. The results are in line with previous studies.
Conclusion: The purpose of the current study was to look at the possibility of farmers participations in the future and option markets that presented as a means to reduce the cotton prices volatility. The dependent variable for this purpose, have four categories: participation in both market, and future market, participation in option market and participation in both future and option markets. Multinomial Legit Regression Model was used for data analysis. Results indicated that during the period of 2014 -2015 and the sample under study 35% of cotton growers unwilling to participate in the future and option markets. Farmers willingness to participate in the future and option market was 19% and %21.5, respectively. Multinomial Legit model estimation results for the probability of participation in the future and option markets showed that the variables of the level of education, farm ownership, cotton acreage, and non-farm income, work experience in agriculture, the index of willing to use new technologies, the index of risk perception cotton market and risk aversion index were statistically significant. The variables of farm ownership, non-farm income and work experience in agriculture, showed negative effects and the other variables positive effects on the probability of participation in these markets. The results are in line with previous studies. Given the positive relationship between level of education and participation of farmers in the future and option markets can be suggested that the training seminars would be provided. The content of the seminars could be about how these markets as a means of reducing the risk of price and performance, and informing farmers of the role of research, education and extension services. Given the positive relationship between risk aversion and risk perceptions which tend to use the new technology on the market, cotton farmers are likely to participate in these markets. Therefore it is proposed to develop a more farmers markets.
F. Baradaran Sirjani; M.R. Kohansal; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Optimal allocation of water resources is an essential service in agriculture that must be considered by farmers. One of the most significant factors in optimal allocation of water resources in agriculture is to define optimal farm cropping pattern. In this study, in order to determine optimal cropping ...
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Optimal allocation of water resources is an essential service in agriculture that must be considered by farmers. One of the most significant factors in optimal allocation of water resources in agriculture is to define optimal farm cropping pattern. In this study, in order to determine optimal cropping pattern and water resources allocation in central district of Mashhad city (Toos village), the two-stages multi-objective fuzzy linear programming was used. The required data was collected through interviews with farmers of the study area and filling in 116 questionnaire using simple random sampling during the years 2012-2013.The results indicated that, optimal values in the two-stage multi-objective fuzzy linear programming model for maximizing gross margin is 239420100 Rials, for utilizing organic fertilizers is 3867.19 Kg, and for minimizing the consumption of irrigation water is 53645.62 square meters, which were modified in the second phase. The objective amount of chemical fertilizer was 817.80 kg., having no change in the second phase. The cropping pattern will be optimized, if the most area under cultivation being allocated to potato, then to barley, wheat, t, onion and sugar beet, while tomato and corn cultivation being removed. Results illustrate that, two-stage multi-objective fuzzy linear programming model in comparison with multi-objective fuzzy linear model yield better results in defining optimal cropping pattern and allocation of irrigation water to the study area.
M. Salarpour; S. Mojarad; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between ...
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In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export in the Iranian economy was analyzed through examining a non linear relation between the two factors. Therefore, the hypothesis validation upon nonlinearity relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export was analyzed using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR). The results of smooth transition model (STAR) show that there is a nonlinear Granger causality between exchange rate and pistachio export and vice versa. It is therefore recommended ,in order to determine the threshold level of potential benefits of pistachio exports, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between the dynamic exchange rate and pistachio exports should be considered. Furthermore, in order to maintain market share in the international level, understanding target markets of export and achieving complete information upon the position of the major competitors in the production and trade of Pistachio is essential.
A. Parhizkari; M. Sabuhi; M. Ahmadpour Borazjani; H. Badi Barzin
Abstract
Considering that agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, presenting integrated management for water resources and formulating effective policies to increase water productivity in this sector is essential. Therefore, using economic modeling , this study simulated the farmers’ responses ...
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Considering that agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, presenting integrated management for water resources and formulating effective policies to increase water productivity in this sector is essential. Therefore, using economic modeling , this study simulated the farmers’ responses to irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city. To achieve the study purpose, the State Wide Agricultural Production Model and Positive Mathematical Programming were applied. The required data for the years 2010-2011 was collected by completing questionnaires and collecting data sets from the relevant agencies of Zabol city in personal attendance. The results showed that imposing irrigation water pricing and rationing policies in Zabol city leads to a reduction in the total cultivated area by 9/54 and 5/14 percent and a reduction in the water consumption by 6/23 and 7/01 percent, compared to the base year. Ultimately, irrigation water rationing policy, considering frugality of 18/9 million m3 of water, as the appropriate solution for the sustainability of water resources of Zabol city was proposed.
M. Sabuhi; E. Azadegan
Abstract
In the current study, the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) and Dynamic Positive Equilibrium Problem (DPEP) approach were introduced and used to estimate the set of dynamic supply functions of selected annual crops in Mashhad-Chenaran plain during the years 2003-2011.In addition, the Allen and Morishima ...
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In the current study, the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) and Dynamic Positive Equilibrium Problem (DPEP) approach were introduced and used to estimate the set of dynamic supply functions of selected annual crops in Mashhad-Chenaran plain during the years 2003-2011.In addition, the Allen and Morishima elasticities of derived demand inputs, and supply elasticity of the crops were determined. The results showed that the estimated dynamic supply functions calibrate the observed supply for each year, accurately. Also, the policy of increasing irrigation water prices by 100 percent from the base year reduced the cultivated area and increased farmers’ intention to cultivate and supply crops with higher income, such as potato, tomato, onion and cucumber. Thus, considering the model‘s ability to estimate the observed supply in each year and to determine the impact of various policies, applying the model is recommended to analyze other policies imposed across various regions.
M. Sabuhi; A. Parhizkari
Abstract
In this study economic and welfare impacts of establishing irrigation water market in Qazvin province as well as potentiality of irrigation water transfer under stress irrigation conditions in the cities of Qazvin province were analyzed. To achieve the above objectives, Positive Mathematical Programming ...
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In this study economic and welfare impacts of establishing irrigation water market in Qazvin province as well as potentiality of irrigation water transfer under stress irrigation conditions in the cities of Qazvin province were analyzed. To achieve the above objectives, Positive Mathematical Programming model and State Wide Agricultural Production functions were used. To achieve applicable results, the production function with a constant elasticity of substitution and cost function with an exponential form were included into the Positive Mathematical Programming model was imported. The study data for the year 2011-2012 was collected by asking the relevant offices in each city of Qazvin province. The proposed model was solved in six successive stages using the GAMS software. After solving the model, amount changes in the area of irrigated crops, farmer's gross profit and labor surplus under the two conditions of “existence of water market” and “lack of water market “at the regional level were calculated. The results showed that establishing irrigation water market increases total irrigated lands for 1/2 percent, total farmer’s gross profit for 1/86 percent and total labor force employed in agriculture for 1/8 percent in the province. Ultimately, considering the supportive and constructive role of regional water markets, it is recommended to provide necessary conditions and tools to establish an optimal use of such a mechanism associated with the type of market in Qazvin province.
M. Mardani Najafabadi; A. Sargazi; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
This study investigated the efficiency of wheat farms in Sistan province. The data consisted of 50 samples from crop producers in the Sistan region. Using the simple sampling method, the data was collected by completing the questionnaires. To evaluate the farm efficiencies, the two approaches of the ...
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This study investigated the efficiency of wheat farms in Sistan province. The data consisted of 50 samples from crop producers in the Sistan region. Using the simple sampling method, the data was collected by completing the questionnaires. To evaluate the farm efficiencies, the two approaches of the “data envelopment analysis” and the “optimization model including parameters to control for the degree of conservation” were combined. The results showed that the average of the study farms ‘ efficiencies in the proposed model (RDEA) is reduced by increasing probability of constraint violation (p) under the constant level of a given uncertainty (ε) .. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to evaluate the model. The simulation results indicate a higher capability of this model with respect to the DEA model. Therefore, this method can be used to obtain the efficiency of decision-making units.
A. Parhizkari; M. Sabuhi; S. Ziaee
Abstract
In the recent decades, due to water shortage problems, most countries have adopted their new policies from water supply management to water demand management . The main objective of the present study is a simulation of water market in order to determine the role of market in the balance between water ...
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In the recent decades, due to water shortage problems, most countries have adopted their new policies from water supply management to water demand management . The main objective of the present study is a simulation of water market in order to determine the role of market in the balance between water supply and water demand and to analysis impacts of irrigation water sharing policies on the cropping patterns under conditions of water shortage in the Shahrood River Basin. For this purpose, positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and regional agricultural production functions were used. After the model design, irrigation water sharing policies in consistent with the legal deviations for each of the three different cases were simulated. Finally, deficit irrigations under the three scenarios 10, 20 and 30 percent were conducted. The data was adjusted based on the reference year of 2011. A part of the data was collectedby completing the questionnaires and interviews in person with farmers from the three regions western Alamut roudbar, Rajai Dasht and Eastern Alamut roudbar.The other part of data was collected by visiting the relevant offices in the city of Qazvin. To solve the proposed model, the software GAMS version of 23/9 was used. The results showed that application of irrigation water sharing policy is a suitable approach for the allocation of water resources of the Shahrood river basin. Furthermore, the results showed that establishming the water market and trading between the regions increases the economic benefits for farmers. The applied irrigation deficit from 10 to 30 percent increased the total area of irrigated crops from 9 to 37 percents.
E. Azadegan; F. Rastegaripour; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
In farming activities, various resources and inputs are utilized to produce agricultural products.. One of the most important goals of agricultural managers and programmers is to assess the optimal resource allocation for designing an appropriate cultivation pattern. Mathematical programming is a common ...
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In farming activities, various resources and inputs are utilized to produce agricultural products.. One of the most important goals of agricultural managers and programmers is to assess the optimal resource allocation for designing an appropriate cultivation pattern. Mathematical programming is a common approach to achieve the optimal pattern. In this study, the two approaches of Fuzzy De-Novo and De-Novo programming are first described, and later their applications in determining the optimal cultivation pattern is discussed. The study was conducted in 2009-2010. Using the random sampling technique, 127 farmers of Sabzevar city were selected and interviewed in person. The data collection was based on completing questionnaires. Results showed that farmers in the three groups of the small farms (less than 6.5 hectare), the medium farms (high than 6.5 and less than 13 hectare) and the large farms (high than 13 hectare) can increase the level of the impure efficiency and can make the resource utilization more efficient by changing their present cultivation patterns. using proper cultivation patterns.
JEL Classification: C61,Q21
S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh; M. Sabouhi; A. Jalali
Abstract
In the present study, ranking of agricultural land use constraints for about 700 hectares of Kashmar plain lands were determined by studying the consumption of the chemical fertilizers and impacts of irregular harvest on the quality of the groundwater resources. The studied lands were divided into 8 ...
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In the present study, ranking of agricultural land use constraints for about 700 hectares of Kashmar plain lands were determined by studying the consumption of the chemical fertilizers and impacts of irregular harvest on the quality of the groundwater resources. The studied lands were divided into 8 groups. The quality and more use restrictions were ranked by Vicor multi-criteria programming method and the related factors and indicators. Using weighted goal programming model with consideration to the 4 environmental and economical goals for each group simultaneously,, optimal cultivating pattern, sustainable management of groundwater use and achievement to the sustainable agriculture were proposed. The required data were collected from the Agriculture Administration, the Regional Water administration and the meteorological office of Kashmar County in 2011. Results showed that priority ranking of land use restrictions should be considered to prevent more damages to the agricultural areas. The results on the agricultural water resources quality during 2009 and 2011 showed that salinity increment in different subdivisions has developed. This causes the regional agriculture to face serious damages in the near future. Therefore, in order to achieve a comprehensive management on exploiting the regional groundwater resources, it is necessary to pay attention to some programs such as groundwater quality management, cultivation pattern change, cultivating the more resistant plants to salinity, replacing the chemical fertilizers with organic ones and considering the sustainable agriculture in the region..
N. Asad Falsafi Zadeh; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Climate change phenomenon is an important environmental challenge of the world that has increased its speed with the increasing extension of greenhouse gases and remote relationship phenomena. Changes in precipitation level, drought occurrence and in the level of surface and groundwater resources are ...
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Climate change phenomenon is an important environmental challenge of the world that has increased its speed with the increasing extension of greenhouse gases and remote relationship phenomena. Changes in precipitation level, drought occurrence and in the level of surface and groundwater resources are the recognized consequences of climate change. In order to study climate change phenomenon consequences on agricultural production in Shiraz County, three wells rings in Shiraz plain were selected. Mean statistics of water level in wells were regressed on the year during 1978-2008. Using annual statistic of precipitation during 1958-2008 and standard precipitation index (SPI), the probability of dry year incidence determined. Effects of 5 pumping scenario in 3 states of nature was assessed using two-stage stochastic programming. Results showed that water levels at the desired level of agricultural wells has significant decrease 0.4 percent (p=0.034). The long-run loss of income and farm income under the mild climate change and dry years was 4.5 and 6.4 percent. The short-term loss of income and agricultural income in the same scenarios were estimated from 54 and 30 percent to 74 and 85 percent, respectively. Agricultural water use in the short and long term was estimated less than the status quo. Reduction in water use will lead to reduction in yield and farm income in the performance area, however, will prevent the long-term damages to crop production levels and underground water resources. Finally, taking support policies to increase farmer's incentives in appropriate use of water resources is recommended.
H. Sakhdari; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
In a region, optimal allocation of lands to various agricultural products is one of the most important issue associated with optimal use of agricultural resources. Meta-Goal Programming is one of the multiple criteria decision models. This Programming provides more flexible decisions for decision makers ...
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In a region, optimal allocation of lands to various agricultural products is one of the most important issue associated with optimal use of agricultural resources. Meta-Goal Programming is one of the multiple criteria decision models. This Programming provides more flexible decisions for decision makers than other goal Programming. In the current study, optimal cropping pattern was determined using Goal and Meta-Goal Programming for agriculture in Neyshabour district. Results showed that, the total cultivated area is estimated less in the Goal Programming than Meta-Goal Programming. Furthermore, the cultivated area of wheat was estimated as the largest area in the all optimal cropping pattern. Considering the huge changes in the policies associated with allocation of resource subsidies and a sharp reduction in the water resources during the recent years, the study recommends using the optimal cropping pattern by which goal deviation is assumed low.
F. Alijani; M. Salarpour; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Considering the importance of the impact of subsidy reform on the agricultural sector, the study aimed at understanding consequences of changes in the rates of production subsidy using General equilibrium model based on input-output table in the year 2001.The study conducted based on three scenarios ...
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Considering the importance of the impact of subsidy reform on the agricultural sector, the study aimed at understanding consequences of changes in the rates of production subsidy using General equilibrium model based on input-output table in the year 2001.The study conducted based on three scenarios containing step, down and finally removed rates of production subsidy. The effects on production, value added, employment, export and import activities in the agricultural sector were analyzed. Results showed that production, value added and export of cultivation, livestock and poultry activities have been reduced more than other activities in the field. Results also showed that employment in sub-sections of the agricultural sector and paltry activities have been reduced. Furthermore, elimination of production subsidies had a negative impact on the fish imports, while the impact was positive for imports of other products. Therefore, since the policy had negative impact on the agricultural products, supporting agricultural sector along with reduction in the government’s expenditures is recommended.
M. Babaei; F. Rastegaripour; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Analyzing the efficiency of agricultural productions plays an important role in raising their productions and performances without spending extra cost. In this studyThis study evaluated were the interval evaluated e fficiency and no efficiency of interval for greenhouseof greenhouse cucumber producers ...
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Analyzing the efficiency of agricultural productions plays an important role in raising their productions and performances without spending extra cost. In this studyThis study evaluated were the interval evaluated e fficiency and no efficiency of interval for greenhouseof greenhouse cucumber producers somefor some subsectors of Sistan region. This research was doneThe study conducted on the basisbased on the approach of of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The , and data and information were collected in the year of 2009 by the two organizations of Jihad via Agriculture Department,and Agriculture Bank. The two organizations attempted at and ccompleting 42 questionnaires by responded by greenhouse cucumber farmers. The results showed that the average interval efficiency average set of interval )was between 0.033, and 0.908( . Amount ofThe average technical efficiency average iswas 0.954. Of the total data, and from total of data about 53.33% of them have efficiency equal to 1. The most highest and the lowest efficiency is was 100% and 0.846 respectively. This subjectThe results indicate that showed thatprograms aimed at improving with increasing ffarmer’ss’ technical efficiency suchefficiency, such as performance of educational classes, we can increasecauses the production to increase and decrease the expenses to decrease without many changes in at the level of technology and used resourcesresource inputs.
