Gh. Layani; M. Bakhshoodeh; z. Ahmadikia
Abstract
Introduction: Off-farm activities have become an important component of livelihood strategies among rural households in most developing countries. According to available evidence, off-farm income is an important source of income for most rural households, which is important for economic, governmental ...
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Introduction: Off-farm activities have become an important component of livelihood strategies among rural households in most developing countries. According to available evidence, off-farm income is an important source of income for most rural households, which is important for economic, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and international representatives of development and advancement. Several studies have reported a substantial and increasing share of off-farm income in total household income. Reasons for this observed income diversification includes declining farm income and the desire to insure against agricultural production and market risks. Non-agricultural activities, which are referred to as off-farm activities, are part of the rural economic sector, which is essential for improvement and assistance that can be referred to as an economic incentive for activities as well as field activities. Due to the development of off-farm activities in rural areas, its share of income has slowly increased and off-farm incomes appear as a contributing factor to the flow of income, which is due to its low income variation. Off-farm activity is a factor in creating diversity in activities and strategies to increase incomes, especially in the time of farm production decline among rural households. Using the theory of time allocation of households, \ incentives to allocate time to out-of-field activities, which not only relate to wage factors but also family structure and individual preferences, are identified.Materials and Methods: In order to investigate the effect of various factors on having an off-farm activity, regression models with a dummy dependent variable are required. Farmers' time allocation to different activity is a function of some variables, such as individual, regional and family characteristics. The model used in the present study is as follows: In which the dependent variable is a multiple choice that in this study shows employment in various activities including agriculture, activities related to agriculture and non-agricultural activities. The multinomial logit model was used to investigate the factors affecting the time allocation of farmers in Marvdasht. Another objective of the present study is to answer the question of whether off-farm activity will increase or decrease income inequality. To measure the inequality created by each source of income, the income-resource variance was used. The percentage of total inequality decomposition is obtained from the following formula. It shows the extent to which inequality is created for each source of income. Results and Discussion: Based on the results, comparing the results of the Logit model and the multinomial logit model indicate that the type of non-agricultural activities is important in the allocation of time and the establishment of various policies for the development of off-farm activities. The level of education has a positive effect on off-field employment due to its effect on creating more job opportunities for individuals. The amount of land owned by the farmer was another important factor in the implementing off-farm activities unrelated to agriculture. According to the results in Marvdasht County, variables such as age, education, livestock breeding, number of extension classes, number of dependent persons, household expenses, expenditure to agricultural income, family labor force and car value have a significant effect on the probability of time allocation to outside activities related to agriculture. Regarding agricultural activities, all variables except for the history of land use and land use ratio have a significant effect on the dependent variable. Also, based on the results, the lowest and largest share of income inequality in households are related to the off-farm activities which is unrelated to agriculture and farming, respectively. Creating the necessary facilities to increase the level of education of households, encouraging off-farm activities for small farmers, along with investing in the development of off-farm activities in rural areas can help to allocate their time to non-agricultural activities along with agriculture and increase income equality.
F. Fathi; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
Introduction: Policies of the Fifth Five-year Socio Economic Development Plan on Iran emphasize on improving factors such as air quality and food security, reduction of the risks and infections that threatens health as well as to change dietary patterns by improving food composition and safety. To this ...
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Introduction: Policies of the Fifth Five-year Socio Economic Development Plan on Iran emphasize on improving factors such as air quality and food security, reduction of the risks and infections that threatens health as well as to change dietary patterns by improving food composition and safety. To this end, the government required to support measures to increase production of animal protein obtained from livestock and poultry. The Iranian targeted subsidy plan started in 2010 which increased energy prices significantly. The increase in energy price after start of targeted subsidies included gasoline (3.6-6.2 times), Kerosene (5.4 times), gas oil (8.1-18.9) and fuel oil (18.8). In terms of supply of animal protein, meat has an important role in nutrition and a major share in family food expenditure so that the willingness to consume it has been obvious in the country's consumer culture. On the other hand, according to international standards, every individual needs 70 grams of protein a day (for average body weight of 70 kg). About one-quarter of this amount (about 25 g) should be animal protein. With commence the second phase of a targeted subsidy plan, it is important to get familiar with the effects of this policy on the livestock and poultry industry. A change in livestock prices due to increased production and transport costs have increased the consumer price and have led to changes in the intake of animal protein and calories. With introduction of this plan and recognition of its need in the country, there has been a need to investigate the effects of increasing energy prices on the livestock and poultry industries and to quantify the effects of these policies. This study is trying to investigate the effects of the increase in energy prices for beef, sheep and poultry meat prices, including on a farm and retail prices under various scenarios, the amount of demand and supply and ultimately the effects on food security in Iran.
Materials and Methods: Equilibrium displacement models (EDMs) have used in applied economics. EDM allows the researchers to focus on result of various supply and demand shifter. In this study,to decide the effects of elimination of energy subsidy policy on meat producers and consumers. The model comprises horizontally linked beef, sheep, and poultry demands at the retail level as well as vertical linkages between the farm and retail sectors.
Results and Discussion: Scenarios for energy price rise are created following three steps. First, a 38 % increase created in prices of energy carriers. Then change in balance, an increase of 50 % considered as the second stage. Up to this point we have about 88 % rise in energy prices, which must raise by another 300 % to reach the global prices which created in the third scenario. Alongside policies for elimination of energy subsidies, there has been a policy of cash subsidies in the country. In this study, to calculate the effect of cash subsidy, it was necessary to calculate the increase in family expenditures in exchange for a certain percentage of increase in the meat price. Therefore, with increase of average meat price, the average family expenditures for meat were also calculated. This average is the value which will pay to families in cash. Like assumptions used in the demand model, if all income rise spent on food, the percentage of increase in expenditure can be calculated. Using this percentage and income elasticity elements, the effect of cash subsidies on increasing meat expenditure can be calculated. Though accepting the premise that all families spend their income rise to buy meat is difficult, it helps us take a general attitude about paying cash that increases demand and shocks the retail demand. Therefore, an increase of 2 and 5 % considered for the average family expenditure. A 2 percent increase in the family expenditure increased the demand for poultry, sheep, beef by about 0.63, 1.13 and 0.92 percent and a 5 percent increase in the family expenditure increased the demand, by 1.57, 2.82 and 2.29respectively.
Conclusion: The results show that if the increased demand is not proportional to the increase in production, it does not have a positive impact on families' food intake. The increases in prices of energy carriers have different effects on meat production. Increased prices of energy carriers encouraged sheep production, because the increase of energy price does not induce a significant effect on the industry which uses pastures as a main feeding resource. Moreover, increased poultry and beef and sheep prices in some scenarios led to substitution with sheep leading to changes in animal protein intake. Because the meat market is competitive, increased demand arising from cash subsidies will not lead to an increase in animal protein intake. To this end, production should increase, so that the price should be reduced and the family protein and calorie intake get close to international standards. In other words, the supply shock effect should neutral and the increase in retail demand cannot help the consumer. It is recommended that the amount of money being paid to families to increase retail demand, be paid to the manufacturing sector to modernize production industry, for example heating devices that help to save energy. Moreover, to counter the negative effects of the increase in the prices of energy carriers, poultry production system that consumes a large share of energy should be modified to increase productivity. Investigating ways to increase productivity and find its effect on the transfer of demand function in an Iranian meat market requires separate study.
Gh. Layani; E. Ghorbanian; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
Introduction: Given the importance of cereals in Iranian households’ baskets, scarcity and fluctuation of this product can reduce welfare of the society. Since the demand for this product comes from two channels of domestic production and imports, it is vital not only to control and monitor its production ...
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Introduction: Given the importance of cereals in Iranian households’ baskets, scarcity and fluctuation of this product can reduce welfare of the society. Since the demand for this product comes from two channels of domestic production and imports, it is vital not only to control and monitor its production but also to take into account the grains global market and trade, as well as the factors affecting the imports of these products. This is because of the fact that any price change can easily be transmitted to the importer countries such as Iran. In this context, this study aims to investigate global maize price transmission to Iran and the possible substitutability between domestic and imported grains by applying Armington and Pass-Through elasticities, Moreover, factors affecting grain imports are studies for the sake of policy implication.
Materials and Methods: For the purposes of this study, the Armington and Pass-Through elasticities four major grains markets, including wheat, barley, maize and rice, were calculated as follow:
(1)
,
Where d and m stand for domestic production and imports, respectively and p and q denote corresponding prices and quantities for selected products. The main function of estimated armington and Pass-Through elasticities as follow:
(2)
(3)
In this study, we used the ADF test to test stationary of variables. Realizing static variables in level and first difference, I (0) and I (1), we used ARDL approach to investigate long-run and short-run relation between variables. The following equation was estimated to examine factors affecting the grain imports to the country:
(4)
Where lM is log of imports of cereals, lGDP is log of GDP, lP is log of relative prices, lE is log of the exchange rate, lT is log of tariffs on imported cereals and lDP is log of domestic production.The required data include imports and domestic production of grain (wheat, barley, rice and maize), domestic and world price of grain GDP, exchange rate for 1981 to 2011 and were collected from the Statistical Center of Iran and FAO.
Results and Discussion: According to the results of this study, Armington elasticity indicates that the imported wheat is substitute for domestic wheat. The log-run Armington elasticities for wheat, corn and barley are found to be 0.41, 0.314 and 0.076, respectively. The small elasticity for barley shows a kind of independency of its domestic market to the world market. The corresponding elasticity coefficients for rice are -0.341 and -0.193 in the long-run and short-run, respectively. Accordingly, imported rice is complement with domestic rice. Findings also indicate that in the long-run the GDP and domestic production have significant effects on import demand of maize, barley and rice. The GDP and tariff rates have significant effect on wheat import demand. Due to the fact that the Iranian state exclusively imports wheat, the tariff rate exhibits an unexpected sign for this product. In the short run, GDP is the most influential variable. According to the results, income has positive and significant effect on the demand for imported maize and in the short-run one percent increase in income results in 1.78 percent increase on maize imports. Furthermore, wheat error correction factor of -0.5 reveals that half of the difference between short-run and long-run equilibrium will be resolved each year. The speed of adjustments for barley, maize and rice are very high. Therefore, any shock to their imports back into balance will return.
Conclusion: Based on the findings of this study, domestic grains are not substitutes for imported grains and thus we cannot rely on imports at least in the short run. Policies that make domestic grains more expensive will result in increasing the share of imports. Reduction of tariffs is recognized as an effective tool for trade liberalization. To support domestic production, the government should seek policies that cause imports to decrease. Tariff barriers can lead to this end; however, the policy needs to be taken together with protectionist policies. In contrast, reduction of tariffs for these products may be imposed if the purpose is primarily to capture domestic demand. Because of the complementary relationship between domestic and imported rice as well as high cost of production, imports of these products is one of the fastest and most common ways to capture the domestic demand, however, the government should support domestic producers by relevant policies such as guaranteed prices and by providing their basic needs at the international level.
F. Fathi; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
Demand for farm output is theoretically consistent with consumer demand and marketing performance. Many studies have focused on demand interrelationships at the retail level, but not on the demand for farm output. In this study, derived demand elasticities of sheep, beef and chicken were estimated in ...
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Demand for farm output is theoretically consistent with consumer demand and marketing performance. Many studies have focused on demand interrelationships at the retail level, but not on the demand for farm output. In this study, derived demand elasticities of sheep, beef and chicken were estimated in a complete system of demand functions by seemingly unrelated regression estimator (SURE) for the years 1984-2012. Sheep, beef and chicken are considered as inputs for food processing and marketing and so their corresponding derived demands are related to consumer demand and marketing performance. Based on findings of this study, the elasticities of substitution are estimated to be 0.26 for sheep, 0.38 for cattle and 0.32 for poultry. The results showed that derived demand elasticity is more sensitive than the one measured by the traditional method. The price elasticities of the derived demands for the three types of meat were calculated-0.922, -0.775 and -0.716 for sheep, beef and chicken, respectively. This presents that demands at the farm level are less elastic than the associated demands at the retail level. Therefore, policies that change meat price at farm or retail level affect marginal markets of other meat products. According to the results of this study, it is necessary for policy makers to have information on the derived demand elasticity.
M. Bakhshoodeh; S.A. Seyed Salehi; M. Mohebbi Fani
Abstract
The objective of this study was to determine the optimum replacement strategy using dynamic programming for dairy herds in Fars province. A dairy cow is kept several lactations for milk production in the herd. After spending several lactations, milk production gradually begins to decline, while animal ...
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The objective of this study was to determine the optimum replacement strategy using dynamic programming for dairy herds in Fars province. A dairy cow is kept several lactations for milk production in the herd. After spending several lactations, milk production gradually begins to decline, while animal health problems rises simultaneously. So one of the most important management decisions of dairy herd is optimal replacement of dairy cow with a young heifer. Dairy cows were described in terms of state variables that included parity, production capacity and reproductive status. The objective function was maximization of the net present value for cows over a 10 lactation planning horizon. Data was related to 406 cows from dairy herds in Fars province (2010). Optimal Replacement strategy was separately investigated for three group of production capacity. Results of dynamic programming model showed that the optimal dairy cows keeping in the herd is two, four and six lactation, respectively for low, medium and high producers. Marcov simulation under the optimal decision plan that is determined by dynamic programming showed an expected herd life (time from first calving until culling) of 4.32 yr. Finally, after running the basic scenario, sensitivity analysis demonstrated changes in the price of heifers, milk price and salvage value of dairy cow effects on average herd life and net present value of dairy cows. Optimal replacement strategy and culling dairy cow older than the optimum age is recommended to improve the profitability of dairy farm
S.H. Mosavi; M. Bakhshoodeh; S. Azhdari
Abstract
Iran achieved its self-sufficiency goal in wheat production a few years ago. Some opponents argue that the increased wheat production has happened at the expense of decreasing other grains specially barley. Considering the dependency of wheat and barley markets on each other, the study estimates policy ...
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Iran achieved its self-sufficiency goal in wheat production a few years ago. Some opponents argue that the increased wheat production has happened at the expense of decreasing other grains specially barley. Considering the dependency of wheat and barley markets on each other, the study estimates policy preference functions for each market, separately. Using weights according to the political indicies, game theory approach was utilized to investigate welfare impacts of such attempt. Results not only justified the arguments but indicated that welfare has been transmitted from wheat producers to consumers and the government as well. Despite having producer and consumer surpluses in wheat market, the high expenses of government lead welfare losses, while the welfare surplus in the barley market was positive. Finally, overall Nash equilibrium as the best strategy occurs by 15% decrease in wheat-cultivated area and 20% decrease in barley production cost. These results undoubtedly imply that the optimal social welfare is associated with mitigating government role in the wheat market.
S. Gholipour; R. Mohammadzadeh; M. Bakhshoodeh; Y. Azarinfar; M. Rafati
Abstract
AbstractThe objective of this study is to investigate the long run and short run interactions between agricultural trade liberalization and shares of the two sectors of agriculture and services in the total export and import products and services of Iran during the years 1961-2008. To figure out interactions, ...
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AbstractThe objective of this study is to investigate the long run and short run interactions between agricultural trade liberalization and shares of the two sectors of agriculture and services in the total export and import products and services of Iran during the years 1961-2008. To figure out interactions, the vector correction model was used. The ratio of the sum of imports and exports to the GDP were considered as an index of trade openness. The Johansen test reveled that there are three long term relations among the variables of this study. Based on the findings, the higher the level of agricultural trade openness goes, the more the import shares of agriculture and service sectors in the long run are. Furthermore, agricultural trade liberalization has caused the exports of both agricultural products and services to decline in the short term.
F. Nasrnia; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
AbstractA quantitative framework of combination of liner programming and cooperative game theory was used in this study to analyze and model cooperative contracts in production based on rural households' resources cooperation in Firoozabad plain. Revenues and costs in cooperation game theory have important ...
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AbstractA quantitative framework of combination of liner programming and cooperative game theory was used in this study to analyze and model cooperative contracts in production based on rural households' resources cooperation in Firoozabad plain. Revenues and costs in cooperation game theory have important rule to get agreement. Transaction cost function was used in cooperative costs accounting for moral hazard, contract costs and supervision of performance. Gross margin and individual cultivation plan for each case was calculated assuming that farmers who are individually cultivating can cooperate in various types. Results showed that farmers' benefit increased as a result of cooperation. Furthermore, farmers' benefit is expected to go up due to increase in the number of cooperative groups.
F. Fathi; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
AbstractSoil nutrient management with efficient fertilizer use has an important role on maximizing yield and environmental effects. In this study game theory is applied to identify the nutrient proportion for corn production in Kooshkak in Fars province, Iran, in 2008-2009. Cost of fertilizer combinations ...
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AbstractSoil nutrient management with efficient fertilizer use has an important role on maximizing yield and environmental effects. In this study game theory is applied to identify the nutrient proportion for corn production in Kooshkak in Fars province, Iran, in 2008-2009. Cost of fertilizer combinations and production of corn are the players of the game. A goal programming was applied to obtain the optimum fertilizer combination and then these combinations were used as payoffs of the game analysis. Based on the maxi-min criteria, the fertilizer combination of 395.07 kg/ha, was found as game solution, including 395.30kg/ha of nitrogen, 195.60 kg/ha of Super Phosphate and the mentioned combination of fertilizers contains 1050000 rials/ha and the yield is 102000 kg/ha.
M. Jafarnia; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
AbstractThe industrial dairy farms in Iran are facing several economic problems and about six percent of these farms were shut down in Fars province due to low profitability. Despite such problems and availability of other enterprises in the region, farmers do not switch to other farm activities. In ...
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AbstractThe industrial dairy farms in Iran are facing several economic problems and about six percent of these farms were shut down in Fars province due to low profitability. Despite such problems and availability of other enterprises in the region, farmers do not switch to other farm activities. In this context, the factors affecting acceptance of diversification options were investigated in this study applying a choice modelling, data collected randomly from a sample of 100 dairy farms in Shiraz and Marvdasht. The results indicate that profit maximizing and production risk are key elements in acceptance of diversification options. Based on the findings, only a few farmers choose these options, revealing that dairy industry is still the preferred activity, hoping that market conditions will improve.
M. Shokoohi; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
AbstractProductivity growth indicates significant differences between provinces that grow faster and whose lags behind others. The differences in the rates of productivity growth in various provinces may be the result of regional inequalities. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-run movement ...
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AbstractProductivity growth indicates significant differences between provinces that grow faster and whose lags behind others. The differences in the rates of productivity growth in various provinces may be the result of regional inequalities. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-run movement in the district level productivity differences and take effective measures (such as higher investment in infrastructure, research and development, etc). With regard to the importance of this topic, this study is finding out whether or not there has been a tendency towards convergence in grain productivity in the last two decades? Results indicate that on average during 1984 and 2003, some provinces had high productivity growth. In contrast, some provinces had experienced negative productivity growth in grain production. This conclusion is concerning the disparity between grain producer provinces in Iran. The convergence results show that some provinces with low initial levels of productivity have a potential to grow faster than provinces with high productivity and so are converging to the mean TFP. While the gap in productivity differences in some provinces is widening and productivity differences will not vanish in the long run.
A.R. Nikooie; M. Rafati; M. Bakhshoodeh
Abstract
Abstract Producing of flowers and ornamental plants in Iran has some challenges and failure in the market structure and marketing of these products. In this study, we evaluated the different marketing channels of flowers and ornamental plants in the existing market structure according to economic criteria ...
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Abstract Producing of flowers and ornamental plants in Iran has some challenges and failure in the market structure and marketing of these products. In this study, we evaluated the different marketing channels of flowers and ornamental plants in the existing market structure according to economic criteria and the characteristics of market structure. Cut-Rose and Esfahan Province were selected as the production and product region samples, respectively. The results showed that producers share from consumer price and marketing efficiency is low. However, in this system due to high losses, there is low technical efficiency. Although, due to high retail price to farm price, price efficiency is high and therefore the total efficiency is also high. Thus, the share of other marketing factors from this high ratio is more than producers. The study of market structure showed that the goods are non-homogeneous and entrance requirement is hard and combined with uncertainty. Therefore, the marketing system of flowers and ornamental plants is inefficient and the market structure is a non-competitive structure. This condition that causes incomplete information in the market, will not allow the possibility of production planning for producers and as a result of excess supply or demand, the level of price volatility in wholesale is high. While the retail price has less volatility and reduced market price is not transferred to the consumer in many times. Therefore, the lowest and highest possible price is respectively received and paid by producers and consumers. In this regard, reform of flower market structure was proposed in Iran.
