پیش‌بینی مبتنی بر الگوی اقتصادسنجی برای خودکفایی محصول برنج در نیجریه

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• راکیا عبدالسلام ¹
• مد نصیر شمس الدین ²
• احمد هنیس ایزانی عبدالهادی ³

¹ گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی و تجارت کشاورزی، دانشگاه فدرال دوتسه، ایالت جیگاوا، نیجریه

² گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پوترا مالزی، سلانگور، مالزی

³ گروه تجارت کشاورزی و اقتصاد منابع زیستی، دانشگاه پوترا مالزی، سلانگور، مالزی

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2024.85180.1225

چکیده

خودکفایی در محصول برنج از اولویت‌های سیاست کشاورزی کشور نیجریه قلمداد می‌شود و این مقاله درصدد آن است سطح خودکفایی محصول برنج را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. بدین منظور، داده‌های سری زمانی برای دوره 1980 تا 2018 از طریق روش اقتصادسنجی خودرگرسیون پویا با وقفه توزیع شده برای الگوسازی بازار برنج نیجریه مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد کشش قیمتی شلتوک معادل 206/0 و بدون معنی است. همچنین، سیاست ملی تضمین مالی کاشت برنج تأثیر مثبت بر نواحی کاشت برنج داشت. وقفه متغیر عملکرد و وقفه سطح کشت با تأثیر مثبت به افزایش عملکرد و سطح زیرکشت منجر شده است. کشش خود قیمتی تقاضای برنج و کشش قیمتی متقاطع، به‌ترتیب، -0.321 و 0.193 برآورد شد، که کشش قیمتی متقاطع به جایگزینی با گندم اشاره دارد. پیش‌بینی دوره ده ساله با استفاده از کشش‌های به‌دست آمده نشان داد، تا سال 2028، افزایش تولید برنج نسبت به کاهش واردات به خودکفایی تا سطح 71 درصد منجر می‌شود. همچنین، سطح متوسط خودکفایی سالیانه 53 درصد، معادل 3.85 میلیون تن از وادرات برنج، برآورد شد. با استفاده از این نتایج، انتظار می‌رود خودکفایی برنج در نیجریه تا سال 2028 محقق نشود، و تنها در صورت بهبود عملکرد برنج از طریق استمرار سیاست‌های حمایتی تحقق خودکفایی ممکن خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• پیش‌بینی خودکفایی برنج
• کشش
• وقفه توزیع شده خودرگرسیونی

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Econometric Model-Based Projection of Nigeria’s Rice Self-Sufficiency

نویسندگان [English]

• R.Y. Abdulsalam ¹
• M. N. Shamsudin ²
• A. H. I. Abdul Hadi ³

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness. Faculty of Agriculture. Federal University Dutse, Jigawa state, Nigeria

² Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia,

³ Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

چکیده [English]

Motivated by Nigeria’s persistent pursuit of rice self-sufficiency, this paper projects the country's future rice self-sufficiency levels. These projections could guide policy decisions in areas of the rice market that show potential for growth, aiding in the achievement of Nigeria's goal through improved planning strategies. Using time series data covering the period from 1980 to 2018, this study adopted an econometric technique to model Nigeria's rice market which was estimated using a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results revealed that paddy producer price elasticity was 0.206 and had no influence on paddy area harvested. On the other hand, the national policy of rice credit guarantee scheme variable displayed a positive relationship with paddy area harvested. Lagged yield and lagged area harvested had positive influences on yield and area harvested, respectively. This could mean that paddy producers were motivated by previous year’s yield levels and area harvested. The demand own-price elasticity of rice was -0.321 and its cross-price elasticity was 0.193, with wheat revealed to be a substitute. The obtained elasticities were then used to make a ten-year projection. Results suggested that by 2028, increasing rice production relative to dwindling imports will boost rice self-sufficiency level to 71%. However, the average yearly rice self-sufficiency level was 53%, requiring 3.85 million Mt of rice imports. The projections revealed that Nigeria will not achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2028 unless intensive yield enhancing policy-supporting efforts are pursued.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Autoregressive distributed lag
• Elasticities
• Projection
• Rice
• Self-sufficiency

©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

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