اثر سیاست‌های پولی و مالی بر امنیت غذایی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• تکتم محتشمی
• محدثه توکلی

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه، تربت حیدریه، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2023.72742.1084

چکیده

اجرای سیاست‌گذاری‌های مناسب به‌منظور غلبه بر عدم امنیت غذایی یکی از ارکان شکوفایی اقتصادی کشورها می‌باشد. تصمیمات اقتصادی که پارامترهای کلان اقتصاد را تغییر می‌دهد، می‌تواند به‌طور مستقیم یا غیرمستقیم بر تولید و قیمت مواد غذایی اثرگذار بوده و امنیت غذایی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. از این‌رو، دستیابی به درکی روشن از چگونگی تأثیر سیاست‌های کلان اقتصادی بر ابعاد مختلف امنیت غذایی در کشور می‌تواند به ارائه راهکارهایی برای بهبود شاخص امنیت غذایی بیانجامد. در این مطالعه یک چارچوب معادلات همزمان به‌منظور بررسی ارتباط سیاست‌های پولی و مالی با تولید و قیمت مواد غذایی در کشور ارائه شده است. در این خصوص با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته، معادلات رفتاری مربوطه به‌طور مجزا با بکارگیری اطلاعات سال‌های 1357-1397 برآورد شده و سپس مدل بصورت یک سیستم معادلات با بکارگیری روش گاوس سایدل اجرا شده است. در ادامه، شبیه‌سازی سناریوهای مختلف برای بررسی اثر تغییرات در نرخ بهره، حجم پول و سرمایه‌گذاری عمومی دولت بر ابعاد مختلف امنیت غذایی صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد، سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی در بخش کشاورزی و مخارج سرمایه‌گذاری عمومی دولت، بوسطه موجودی سرمایه، اثر مثبتی بر تولید غذا اعمال می­کنند. همچنین تغییرات در نرخ بهره اثر کمی بر تولید غذا دارد اما اثرات منفی قابل ملاحظه‌ای بر قیمت مواد غذایی خواهد داشت و در مجموع، تصمیمات سیاست پولی منجر به افزایش در قیمت‌های غذایی همراه با کاهش در تولید غذا بواسطه تقاضا برای پول و سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی می‌شود. لذا اجرای این سیاست‌ها باید با دقت بیشتری صورت گیرد تا حداکثر منفعت را برای تشویق کشاورزان به افزایش تولید و لذا تأمین امنیت غذایی برای مصرف‌کنندگان به دنبال داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ابعاد امنیت غذایی
• روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته
• سیاست‌های کلان

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Monetary and Financial Policies on Iran's Food Security

نویسندگان [English]

• Toktam Mohtashami
• Mohaddeseh Tavakoli

Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Torbat Heydarieh, Torbat Heydarieh, Iran

چکیده [English]

Using appropriate policies to overcome food insecurity is one of the pillars of economic prosperity of countries. Economic decisions that change macroeconomic parameters can directly or indirectly affect food production and prices and affect food security. Therefore, achieving a clear understanding of how macroeconomic policies affect different dimensions of food security in the country can lead to providing solutions to improve the food security index. In this study, a framework of simultaneous equations is presented in order to investigate the relationship between monetary and financial policies with food production and prices in the country. In this regard, using the method of generalized moments, behavioral equations were estimated separately using the data of 1978-2018. The model was then implemented as a system of equations using the Gauss Seidel method. Different scenarios were simulated in this model to investigate the effects of changes in interest rates, money volume, and general government investment on various aspects of food security. The results indicated that government investment in the agriculture sector and public investment expenditures have a positive impact on food production through capital stock. Additionally, changes in interest rates have minimal effects on food production but significant negative effects on food prices. Overall, monetary policy decisions result in increased food prices alongside decreased food production due to the demand for money and private investment. Therefore, the implementation of these policies should be done more carefully in order to encourage farmers to increase production and therefore ensure food security for consumers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Food security
• Generalized Moments method
• Macro policies

©2023 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source.

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