ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و سیاست‌های دولت بر عملکرد و سطح زیر کشت محصول ذرت در ایران: رویکرد داده‌های ترکیبی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشگاه آزاد مرودشت

چکیده

سطح زیر کشت و عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی متأثر از عوامل مختلفی است که برخی از آن‌ها قابل کنترل و برخی دیگر غیر قابل کنترل می‌باشد. از جمله موارد غیر قابل کنترل می‌توان تغییرات اقلیم را نام برد. در بین غلات، ذرت هم از نظر تولید و هم از نظر سطح زیر کشت جایگاه ویژه‌ای در جهان دارد. لذا با توجه به اهمیت این محصول و تغییرات اقلیم در طی سال‌های اخیر، در این مطالعه به بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد ذرت دانه‌ای با استفاده از روش داده‌های ترکیبی در استان‌های عمده تولید کننده این محصول در ایران پرداخته شد. داده‌های بکار رفته مربوط به استان‌های فارس، خوزستان، کرمان، کرمانشاه و ایلام برای دوره زمانی 1390-1372 می‌باشد. هم‌چنین اثر سیاست‌هایی همچون خودکفایی گندم و قیمت تضمینی نیز بر سطح زیر کشت ذرت مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تمامی متغیرهای وارد شده در الگو ازجمله قیمت تضمینی، سطح زیر کشت گندم دیم و آبی، بارندگی، وقفه سطح زیر کشت ذرت، اثر معنی‌داری را بر سطح زیر کشت در استان‌های تولید کننده عمده ذرت دانه‌ای کشور داشته‌اند. در این بین بیش‌ترین ضریب برآوردی مربوط قیمت تضمینی این محصول بوده لذا انتظار می‌رود اثر قابل توجهی بر سطح زیر کشت این محصول داشته باشد. هم‌چنین برآورد مدل ریکاردین حاکی از آن است که بارندگی بر خلاف دما بر عملکرد ذرت اثر معنی‌داری داشته و افزایش بارندگی و به عبارتی افزایش عرضه آب می‌تواند به افزایش سطح زیر کشت ذرت منجر شود.

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