سرمایه‌گذاری مورد نیاز کشاورزی برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی هدف در برنامه‌ی هفتم توسعه در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسنده

• کوهسار خالدی

گروه پژوهشی سیاست‌های کشاورزی و غذا، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه‌ی روستایی، تهران، ایران

10.22067/jead.2024.86191.1244

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی و تخریب منابع پایه‌ی تولید را می‌توان مهم‌ترین چالش‌های فراروی کشاورزی ایران قلمداد کرد. فقدان برنامه‌ریزی هدفمند برای مقابله با این چالش‌ها، رشد پایدار بخش کشاورزی ایران را به مخاطره انداخته است. در لایحه‌ی مصوب برنامه‌ی هفتم توسعه، رشدهای اقتصادی 8 درصد و 5/5 درصد به‌ترتیب برای کلان اقتصاد و بخش کشاورزی ایران تعریف شده است. برای جلوگیری از اتکای زیاد بر منابع پایه در فرآیند تولید کشاورزی و افزایش تاب‌آوری آن، جهش پایدار در سرمایه‌گذاری هدفمند کشاورزی، مهمترین انتخاب دولت در میان‌مدت و بلندمدت خواهد بود. هدف مطالعه‌ی حاضر، برآورد سرمایه‌‌گذاری سالانه‌ی موردنیاز بخش کشاورزی در برنامه‌ی هفتم توسعه است و در همین راستا در قالب سه رویکرد، مقدار سرمایه‌گذاری سالانه موردنیاز در بخش کشاورزی ایران برای تحقق رشدهای اقتصادی هدف (مفروض) برآورد گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد که با توجه به مفروضات مطالعه برای دستیابی به رشدهای اقتصادی 5/3 درصد، 5/5 درصد و 8 درصد در بخش کشاورزی در برنامه‌ی هفتم توسعه، لازم است به‌ترتیب با نرخ‌های رشد 5/4 درصد، 1/6 درصد و 2/8 درصد، سالانه به‌طور متوسط به‌ترتیب حدود 183، 234 و 304 هزار میلیارد ریال سرمایه‌گذاری در این بخش انجام شود. در همین راستا، پیشنهاد می‌شود که ضمن تفکیک تسهیلات سرمایه‌گذاری و تسهیلات سرمایه‌ی در گردش کشاورزی در طول برنامه‌ی هفتم توسعه، بهبود فضای سرمایه‌گذاری کشاورزی و مکانیسم انتقال پس‌اندازها به این بخش، تخصیص بهینه‌ی منابع مالی داخلی (صندوق توسعه‌ی ملی، سیستم بانکی، صندوق حمایت از توسعه‌ی سرمایه‌گذاری، صندوق‌های خُرد کشاورزی و ...) و منابع مالی خارجی (سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی) به گونه‌ای برنامه‌ریزی گردد که سرمایه‌گذاری انجام شده در بخش کشاورزی با رشد اقتصادی هدف برنامه، هماهنگ و متناسب باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• بخش کشاورزی
• برنامه‌ی هفتم توسعه
• رشد اقتصادی
• سرمایه‌گذاری
• ایران

موضوعات

• توسعه کشاورزی و روستایی

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