سنجش کارایی صادرات پسته ایران با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشگاه فردوشی مشهد

چکیده

امروزه، اندازه‌گیری و تحلیل کارایی صادرات به عنوان یکی از مهم­ترین مباحث در حوزه‌ی تجارت مطرح است. به عبارتی، یک صادرکننده در همه‌ی بازارها عملکرد یکسانی نداشته و نیاز است که عملکرد بازارها مورد تحلیل و بررسی قرار گیرد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی کارایی صادرات پسته ایران به بازارهای هدف در دوره زمانی 2016-2001 است. به منظور دستیابی به اهداف از الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی استفاده شده است. نتایج کارایی بیانگر این است که کارایی صادرات پسته‌ی ایران در کل بازارها و بازارهای اروپایی روند کاهشی داشته است. در حالی‌که، این روند برای بازارهای آسیایی افزایشی بوده و از 412/0 به 567/0 رسیده است. بر اساس نتایج میانگین کارایی صادرات در دوره زمانی 2016-2011، از 10 کشوری که صادرات پسته‌ی ایران به آ‌ن‌ها بیش­ترین کارایی را داشته، 9 کشور آسیایی بوده و تنها کشور فرانسه از میان کشورهای اروپایی در این گروه قرار گرفته است. لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود بر اساس متغیرهای اثرگذار بر افزایش صادرات پسته ایران همانند موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری، مرز مشترک و درآمد بالا، برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری مناسبی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت جهت دستیابی به ظرفیت بالقوه و در دسترس بازارهای هدف صورت پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


1- Aghlamand S., Rahimi B., Farrokh-Eslamlou H., Nabilou B., and Yusefzadeh H. 2018. Determinants of Iran’s bilateral intra-industry trade in pharmaceutical industry. Iranian Journal of Pharmaceutical Research 17(2): 822-828.
2- Aigner D., Lovell C.A.K., and Schmidt P. 1977. Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models. Journal of Econometrics 6: 21–37.
3- Aminizadeh M., Karbasi A., Riahi A., and Ramezani M. 2020. Assessing the Effect of Iran’s Membership in Trade Agreements on Saffron Exports. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 7(4): 537-549.
4- Ashktorab N. 2012. Investigating Factors Affecting Iranian Pistachio Exports with Emphasis on Food Health. Journal of Economic Studies 2(2): 52-70.
5- Atif R.M., Mahmood H., Haiyun L., and Mao H. 2019. Determinants and efficiency of Pakistan’s chemical products’ exports: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model. PLOS ONE 14(5): 1-15.
6- Atif R.M., Haiyun L., and Mahmood H. 2017. Pakistan's agricultural exports, determinants and its potential: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 26(3): 257-276.
7- Bao H.D., Minh P.V., Thai P.V., and Hieu T.N. 2018. A Stochastic Analysis of Vietnam Bilateral Trade Efficiency. Journal of Economics and Development 20(2): 50-64.
8- Battese G.E., and Coelli T.J. 1988. Production of firm level efficiencies: With a generalized frontier production function and panel data. Journal of Econometrics 38: 387–399.
9- Battese G.E., and Coelli T.J. 1995. A Model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics 20: 325–332.
10- Centre d'Etudes Prospective et d'Informations Internationals. 2019. CEPII Database. Available at http://www.cepii.fr/ (visited 23 July 2019).
11- Deluna R.J., and Cruz E. 2014. Philippine export efficiency and potential: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model. MPRA Paper 53580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
12- Doan T.N., and Xing Y. 2018. Trade efficiency, free trade agreements and rules of origin. Journal of Asian Economics 55(3): 33-41.
13- Dourandish A., Aminizadeh M., Riahi A., and Mehrparvar Hosseini E. 2019. Assessing the Role of Trade Sanctions and Global Economic Crisis on Iran’s Saffron Exports. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 6(4): 499-511.
14- Dung D.T.K. 2017. Research on determinants of trade balance in Vietnam: a var approach. Journal of Asian Review of Public Affairs and Policy 2(2): 1-15.
15- European Commission. 2010. Trade, growth and world affairs. Trade policy as a core component of the EU's 2020 strategy. European Economic and Social Committee, France.
16- Feldman M.P. 1999. The new economics of innovation, spillovers and agglomeration: a review of empirical studies. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 8: 5–25.
17- Ferto I., and Szerb A.B. 2017. The role of food crisis and trade costs in the Hungarian maize exports. Problems of Agricultural Economics 353(4): 110-124.
18- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2019. FAO statistical databases. Available at http://www.fao.org (visited 20 July 2019).
19- Fugazza M., and Molina A.C. 2016. On the determinants of exports survival. Canadian Journal of Development Studies 37(2): 159-177.
20- Goff M.L., and Singh R.J. 2014. Does trade reduce poverty? A view from Africa. Journal of African Trade 1(1): 14.
21- Hendizadeh H., Karbasi A., Mohtashami T., and Sahabi H. 2019. Ranking of socio-economic variables affecting the bilateral trade of saffron in Iran and business partners. Journal of Saffron Research 7(1): 55-67.
22- Herath H.M.S.P. 2014. The impact of international trade on employment generation a srilankan experience. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management 2(7): 1-8.
23- Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA). 2019. Available at https:// www.irica.gov.ir (visited 20 July 2019).
24- Jarreau J. 2015. Determinants of trade policy: insights from a structural gravity model. The World Bank Economic Review 29(1): 155-163.
25- Kahouli B., and Makttouf S. 2015. The determinants of FDI and the impact of the economic crisis on the implementation of RTAs: A static and dynamic gravity model. International Business Review (24)3: 518-529.
26- Kalirajan K. 1999. Stochastic varying coefficients gravity model: an application in trade analysis. Journal of Applied Statistics 26(2): 185-193.
27- Karbasi A.R., and Aminizadeh M. 2019. Investigating the effective factors on Iran’s pistachio export with emphasis on the role of trade sanctions. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 11(43): 1-22.
28- Koochakzadeh S., and Karbasi A. 2015. Study of the Effective Factors on the Commerce of Iranian Saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3(3): 217-227.
29- Liaquat H., Gul N., Irfan A., and Sami A. 2016. Pakistan’s exports efficiency: an application of the stochastic frontier gravity model. Abasyn Journal of Social Sciences. Special Issue 164-177.
30- Manwa F., Wijeweera A., and Kortt M.A. 2019. Trade and growth in SACU countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy 63: 107-118.
31- Mohammadi H., Saghaian S.M., Aghasafari H., and Aminizadeh M. 2018. Assessing the effective factors on agricultural intra-Industry trade between Iran and Asian trading partners. Agricultural Economics 12(3): 135-153.
32- Mohammadvand Nahidi M., and Sagezchi P. 2014. The study of effective economic factors on trade openness in Iran under stable and non-stable conditions. Iranian Journal of Applied Economics 4(14): 17-28.
33- Najafi I., Moghaddasi R., and Zeraatkish S.Y. 2016. Stadying the influentionl Factors on Pistachio Export Prices in Major Exporters (Application of GVAR Model). Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 8(31): 193-216.
34- Nasir S., and Kalirajan K. 2016. Information and communication technology-enabled modern services Export performances of Asian economies. Asian Development Review 33(1):1–27.
35- Noviyani D.S., Na W., and Irawan T. 2019. Indonesian export efficiency: a stochastic frontier gravity model approach. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology 6(1): 488-497.
36- Piri R. 2016. Investigation of economic factors affecting Iran's trade balance with Turkey. Master Thesis, Tabriz. (In Persian with English abstract)
37- Rasekhi S., Sheidaei Z., and Asadi S.P. 2016. A causal relationship between trade efficiency and economic efficiency: evidence from dynamic simultaneous equations models. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 26(4): 473-487.
38- Ravishankar G., and Stack M.M. 2014. The gravity model and trade efficiency: a stochastic frontier analysis of eastern European countries’ potential trade. The World Economy 37(5): 690-704.
39- Samore G. 2015. Sanctions against Iran: a guide to targets, terms, and timetables. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 28-29.
40- Shepherd B., and Wilson N.L. 2013. Product standards and developing country agricultural exports: The case of the European Union. Food Policy 42: 1-10.
41- Tahir M., Hasnu S., and Estrade M.R. 2018. Macroeconomic determinants of trade openness: empirical investigation of SAARC region. Journal of Asia Business Studies 12(2): 151-161.
42- Tinbergen J. 1962. Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund, New York.
43- Toossi M., Moghadasi R., Yazdani S., and Ahmadian M. 2011. Regionalism and Iran's Agricultural Trade Promotion in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO). Agricultural Economics 4(4): 131-157.
44- UNCTAD. 2010. International Trade after the Economic Crisis: Challenges and New Opportunities. United Nations Publication.
45- World Bank. 2018. World Bank Database. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org (visited 20 July 2019).
46- World Trade Organization (WTO). 2019. Available at https://www.wto.org (visited 20 July 2019).
47- Zahonogo P. 2016. Trade and economic growth in developing countries: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Trade 3(2): 41-56.
48- Zheng Z., Saghaian S., and Reed M. 2012. Factors Affecting the Export Demand for U.S. Pistachios. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 15(3): 139-154.
CAPTCHA Image