تغییر اقلیم و تجارت کشاورزی در ایران: تحلیل داده-ستانده پویا

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• علی‌رضا کشاورز
• زکریا فرج زاده

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2024.85467.1227

چکیده

در دهه­های اخیر با تشدید پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم، اهمیت این موضوع فزونی یافته است. زیرا ممکن است این پدیده  در کشورهای درحال توسعه و به­ویژه در مورد فعالیت­های کشاورزی، موجب کاهش رشد اقتصادی یا توقف آن شود. می­توان تغییر اقلیم را مهم­ترین و پیچیده­ترین چالش فعلی جامعه بشری تلقی نمود. در همین راستا مطالعه حاضر کوشیده است پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم را در حوزه صادرات و واردات محصولات کشاورزی در طی یک افق 40 ساله و با استفاده از مدل داده-ستانده پویا ارزیابی کند. تغییر اقلیم به­صورت سطوح مختلفی از ناهنجاری دما منظور و پیامدهای آن در بخش­های مختلف اقتصاد ارزیابی شد. یافته­ها نشان داد تغییر اقلیم رشد صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی را بشدت تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد. متوسط رشد سالانه واردات کالاهای کشاورزی در شرایط بدون تغییر اقلیم 7/2 درصد است، در حالی­که در شرایط تغییر اقلیم و تحت سناریوهای مختلف افزایش دما به 8/1-1 درصد کاهش می­یابد. مقادیر متناظر برای صادرات کشاورزی به­ترتیب 75/2 و 8/1-55/0 درصد است. افزون بر این، مشخص گردید در شرایط تغییر اقلیم بخش مهمی از تجارت کشاورزی را واردات غلات تشکیل می­دهد. هم­چنین نتایج نشان داد تجارت کل اقتصاد ایران به سمت کالاهای غیرکشاورزی بیش­تر متمایل خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تجارت کشاورزی
• تغییر اقلیم
• داده-ستانده

موضوعات

• اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست

عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate Change and Agricultural Trade in Iran: A Dynamic Input-Output Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

• Alireaz Keshavarz
• Zakariya Farajzadeh

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

چکیده [English]

In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. Climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. Among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. Accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in Iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. This study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of Iran’s economy. The findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. Under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. However, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. Regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent.  In addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. Also, the total trade of the Iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agricultural trade
• Climate change
• Input-output

©2023 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source.

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