نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness. Faculty of Agriculture. Federal University Dutse, Jigawa state, Nigeria
2 Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia,
3 Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
As a dominant staple in Nigeria, domestic rice production has lagged behind demand for many years. Though, the country is endowed with a significant yield potential, a current yield of two metric tonnes per hectare which contributes to producing an average of 2.5 million metric tonnes of rice is insufficient to feed its growing population. Given the importance of pursuing a goal of rice self-sufficiency in Nigeria, it is of great interest to academics and policy-makers to investigate and understand future rice demands and supplies as they affect national self-sufficiency levels, as well as their implications for trade at the global level. This situation served to inspire the objective of this paper which was to forecast Nigeria's rice self-sufficiency levels. Such a study could facilitate policy directives on extra efforts required to achieve its goal through improved planning decisions. Using time series data obtained from multiple sources and covering 1980 to 2018 period, this study adopted an econometric technique to model Nigeria's rice market in a partial equilibrium framework, which was estimated using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The choice of econometric approach was based on its ability to model the dynamics of Nigeria’s rice market, creating a model that can manage and predict its associated variables, thereby guiding policy processes for the rice market. To guide the analysis process in this study, a commodity market model was designed to represent demand, supply, and price components of the Nigeria rice market. The market rice price was determined based on the market clearing condition which equates the total supply of rice to its total demand. The model consisted of four structural equations representing paddy area harvested, paddy yield, paddy producer price and rice consumption per capita, and five identities for paddy production, rice production, rice import, rice retail price and rice self-sufficiency level. This model serves not just for projections but can also serve as a framework for consistent policy planning, forecasting and simulating the effects of regulatory policies. The results revealed that Paddy own price elasticity was 0.206 and had no influence on paddy area harvested. On the other hand, the national policy of rice credit guarantee scheme variable displayed a positive relationship with paddy area harvested. Lagged yield and lagged area harvested had positive influences on yield and area harvested, respectively. This could mean that paddy producers were motivated by previous year’s yield levels and area harvested. The own-price elasticity of rice was -0.321 and its cross-price elasticity was 0.193, with wheat revealed to be a substitute. The obtained elasticities were then used to make a ten-year projection from a base year of 2018. As an important step in econometric forecasting studies, the model was subjected to a validity test which provided a satisfactory confirmation of the model’s forecasting ability and performance. Specifically, the value of the Mean Absolute Percent Error revealed a reasonable forecast accuracy that the simulated values were off by less than 3%. Furthermore, individual components of the Theil inequality coefficient showed that the model had a good fit with little to no unsystematic forecasting error and overall, possesses a good forecasting ability. According to the projection, rice production averaged 4.30 metric tonnes annually, mainly stimulated by a 3.06% yield growth rate. In addition to yield growth, area harvested was projected to increase by 1.14% yearly accumulating a total rice production volume of 5.44 million metric tonnes by 2028. Nonetheless, this was not expected to have a significant effect on SSL because demand figures were projected to increase by 8.15% per year from the baseline to reach 7.66 million metric tonnes in 2028. Consequently, the shortfall will have to be compensated by imports of 3.85 metric tonnes yearly. These projections indicated that the goal of reaching self-sufficiency in rice seems to be farfetched, especially considering the smallholder nature of the production system. Overall, the projections suggested that by 2028, increasing rice production relative to dwindling imports will boost rice self-sufficiency level to 71%. However, the average yearly rice self-sufficiency level was 53%, requiring 3.85 million metric tonnes of rice imports. The projections revealed that Nigeria will not achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2028 unless intensive yield enhancing technologies are pursued. It was therefore, suggested that policies aimed towards yield-enhancing advancements are pursued at both national and state levels.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)
ارسال نظر در مورد این مقاله